Parramatta – Australia 2028

Why do the Liberals do so well in the Oatlands North booth? Also this seat was another seat I thought the Liberals could win off the ALP but now the margin has blowout to double digits.

Space fish, I believe Oatlands has a high retiree population and is also less diverse with fewer residents from CALD minority backgrounds. These factors make it a conservative leaning suburb, similar to places such as St Ives in Bradfield district and Terrey Hills in Mackellar district which are also demographic outliers/enclaves in comparison to other suburbs.

Oatlands has almost 52% of people who use a language other than English at home so pretty CALD – Lebanese Catholics might vote Liberal heavily.

The thing that did the liberals here was the choice of candidate and the obvious campaign blunder. Charlton is not representative of the seat and is a parachute from the well off areas on the coast. The libs could probly win this of the right factors worked in their favour

Oatlands is very heavily Maronite and votes quite a lot further to the right than surrounding suburbs.

I think the the Charlton being a ‘parachute’ doesn’t have much effect in a very middle class seat like this. It would go down worse if he were parachuted in from the wealthy eastern suburbs to very poor electorates like Chifley or Blaxland (or obviously Fowler). Or if a local from the community was snubbed in favour of him which didn’t happen.

I think Charlton’s outsider nature is no longer an issue. And I don’t remember pretty much anything about the Liberal candidate. I certainly don’t remember a blunder.

Parramatta is somewhat of a transition electorate, given that it sits right on the convergence point of the (former) Liberal stronghold of the north side of Sydney Harbour, and the Labor stronghold of Western Sydney.

I don’t think the parachuting thing is all too big of a deal considering the seat has been historically marginal and used to favour the Liberals.

Charlton comes from that sort of white collar background that used to be the Liberal base, so while it’s not ideal that he was parachuted in, Labor could’ve done worse.

Raue i remember during the prahran by election people were not liking her chances while there were no blunders some question the choice of candidate

Charlton and his team campaigned hard with a big presence at public transport stops.
Not a blunder per se, but Mullen’s team didn’t seem to know where the border was, sometimes campaigning well into Mitchell.

Prahran?

Oatlands is near Kings and Tara schools, itis also a old suburb, expensive homes and a prestigious golf course. This tends to attract a pocket of voters that don’t quite fit with the rest of the seat. It’s almost like they’ve shifted part of Killara or Beecroft down to Oatlands.

Ben’s Maronite point is also valid, possibly a bigger factor.

@Ben that’s something I’ve found frustrating with Parramatta’s border; it should be the M2. Not James Ruse Drive.

@LNP Insider, part of Beecroft is actually in this seat. And the booth up there had a Labor primary over 50%.

Labor has got its highest margin since 1983. It’s in the safe category. There was talk about this as a battleground seat before the 2025 election.

Regarding Oatlands, it is low-density and very leafy and has two posh private schools. There are lots of asset-rich landowners. The median age is higher than the Australian median age.