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This gained a lot of attention that Labor was in trouble but it seems that the change in the demographics during the lockdowns years has assisted Labor’s hold on here. I expect this electorate to continue to shrink and eventually lose the last part of the Surf Coast council area which will likely go into Wannon.
Only the semi-rural booths here are Blue.
Even if the Surf Coast is removed it is not enough to win the seat. Libs need to flip booths on the Bellarine Penisula and the growth area suburbs as well.
In an expansion of parliament, one would assume this seat will either be entirely fixed to the Bellarine Peninsula, or redrawn back to include Lake Corangamite.
It used to be way, way bigger and more rural and now, after successive redistributions, just covers parts of Geelong and Surf Coast LGA. The shrinking of the electorate plus demographic changes have made this more solidly Labor. It was a long-time Liberal seat until 2007 and was held by the Liberals again from 2013 to 2019.
theres no way its ever going to cover the lake again.
In an expansion of Parliament I’d imagine this seat probably ends up taking more of southern Geelong and possibly dropping Torquay but that depends on where they draw in new seats, could also retreat down the surf coast if Corio shifts south
Maxim in an expansion of parliament seats tend to shrink not expand