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After Robertson, this seat has the longest streak of voting for the party that forms government. It has done so since 2007, back when Reid was known as Lowe.
Given it is a small-l Liberal seat, which covers some affluent areas on Parramatta River, as well as containing a notable Asian population, this is the sort of seat the Liberals would need to be competitive in if they want to ever form government again. With a margin of 12%, there is a lot of work to do.
Reid still existed before 2007, it just had very pro-Labor which largely cover the seat of Blaxland these days.
And I don’t think this is a seat the Liberals need to form government again, there are literally 44 Labor seats (with varying demographics) on lower margins + 9 crossbench seats too.
Agree scart, this is probably a second tier target for the Liberals as they would want to prioritise their efforts in the outer suburban seats first to try and force Labor into minority or at least reduce them back under 80 seats like the 2022 result.
I would use Lowe rather than the Pre2010 version of Reid as a comparision. Lowe was a marginal seat but not always a bellwether.
John Howard won an election 3 times without Lowe all in a majority
Bob Hawke won an election twice without Lowe all in a majority.
If Coalition can win a seat they did not win in 2016 like Lyons, Eden-Monaro or Solomon instead then even in a narrow election like 2016 then can afford to loose Reid. Alternatively, if they can win a seat like McEwen,Blair which they did not win in 2013 then they can afford to loose Reid as well. I dont think Liberals will win Moreton, Lilley or Kingston in lieu of Reid however, i think they are stronger seats these days
@Nimalan that’s what I mean when I say “Reid, when it was known as Lowe”. The 2010 redistribution effectively abolished Reid, but the name Lowe was retired.
I basically refer to this seat as Reid/Lowe
@ CJ
You are correct Scart mentioned Reid before 1997 so i was responding to him and just adding a bit of context of Lowe how while it was a marginal seat not often a bellwether. When Lowe was created in 1949 it was a notional Labor seat based on 1946 results but technically was a Liberal pick up in 1949.
*Reid before 2007 i mean
Given the consistent under quota of central and inner west of Sydney as well as demographics I don’t see how this seat is going back to the liberals.
@Darth Vader Reid was one of only 8 or 9 seats not touched at the most recent redistribution (as well as the only one in Sydney not touched), and with the Metro West being built within Reid’s boundaries, the development around these stations should keep the seat within quota for the foreseeable future.
Inner West and the Sydney CBD has been under quota a lot of times at recent redistributions. I’m expecting when NSW loses its next seat (likely before the 2031 election), it’ll be removed from the electorally crowded area between the Georges and Parramatta Rivers. I expect either Blaxland, Grayndler, or Sydney to be abolished at such a time, unless parliament is expanded.