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Another seat where Labor shouldn’t be complacent in, given the recent state election results of One Nation.
This seat actually comes in two parts. Salisbury and Tea Tree Gully councils
Tea Tree Gully council is actually middle class, leafy, hilly and has a high quality of life and i dont think ONP will resonate there as much according to Chatgpt it demographically close to Banyule council suburbs such as Montmorency, Briar Hill, Greensborough or Outer Eastern Suburbs like Ringwood East, Heathmont or Ferntree Gully. It actually has low level of disavanatage and so i feel it has textbook Middle Australia like the electorate of Deakin. The Western part in Salisbury council is working class and industrial. Important to note this electorate contains the state electorates of King, Newland, Florey, Wright, Playford and a small part of Torrents in some areas there were actually swings to Labor.
If federal polling is replicated on election day, we could see the Liberals miss out on the 2CP in a number of seats in SA. The possibilities are:
ALP vs ONP – Makin, Spence, Hindmarsh, Kingston
CA vs ALP – Mayo
ALP vs GRN – Adelaide
@Votante: I am not sure the Greens will finish second in Adelaide. The Greens is likely to poll second on primary votes, but Liberal preferences may lift One Nation into the second place. One Nation finished second in the state seats of Enfield and West Torrens. The majority of the areas of both seats are within the federal seat of Adelaide. If not for Peter Malinauskas’ personal popularity, One Nation would have finished second in Croydon as well.
According to the latest Newspoll aggregate, the Liberal Party is only polling 16% in SA. I think the Liberal Party could miss the 2CP in O’Donoghue as well on such a low statewide primary vote.
@Joseph, I would say that voting One Nation at the SA state election is different to voting One Nation at the next federal election. At the state election, a Labor landslide victory was a foregone conclusion. Voters knew that the state Liberals were weakened with scandals, legal issues, leadership changes and by-election losses. Voters could vote on the opposition. One Nation came up as a new alternative to Labor.
Federally, a coalition or minority government of One Nation, Liberals and Nationals is a real possibility. Also, since Pauline Hanson’s press club speech, One Nation has been more scrutinised for their fiscal and economic policies among others. This might make One Nation-curious voters think twice before casting their vote.
I also believe that at the federal election, One Nation will target specific seats, and shift resources to them – mainly outer suburban and regional and rural seats. This includes Makin, Spence, O’Donoghue and Barker. At the state election, there was a blanket approach and no seat targetting.
Adelaide is highly-educated and CALD. SA is very centralised and Adelaide has the lion’s share of public services. Hanson’s pledge to slash public sector jobs and reduce student numbers could cause angst among those who depend on the public service or universities for employment or business opportunities (like nearby cafes).