Werriwa – Australia 2028

The swing towards Labor was very small here, if the Liberals wish to return to government then this is a must win to off set losses in the inner city.

The surrounding seats of Hughes and Macarthur had much stronger swings to Labor than Werriwa. In saying that, both Hume and McMahon swung to the Liberals.

Stanley needs to be careful here, or she risks being tapped on the shoulder. Fortunately for her, this area is pretty fast growing so there’s certainly an opportunity for her to redefine her image to new residents.

I think Hughes is gonna trend labor in the next decade. If whitlam and cunnigham are dragged further down then Hughes is gonna harder for the libs to win. Though the offset is whitlam will become easier to win. I played around on jwolfs tool and if nsw retains its current seats. (Maybe just after 2031) Labor will probably be able to win Berowra. Dobell would probably become much safer for labor but Hunter would be less safe. Greenway might be obtainable for the libs thoigh rowland wuld probably need to retire first.

JWood’s tool is interesting because, on current seat numbers, much of the North Shore is over the 3.5% quota (though I don’t think it’s entirely accurate because the projected numbers barely deviate from the actual numbers). Blaxland and Watson are, once again, under quota.

With that in mind I drew a map that could’ve theoretically prevented North Sydney’s abolition, and instead abolished both Blaxland and Berowra to put a new seat in SW Sydney.

It definitely points to a seat between the Georges and Parramatta Rivers being abolished when NSW loses its next seat (assuming no expansion). I speculate the candidates will be Blaxland, Grayndler, or Sydney.

I was able to retain all the current seats but there was a shift westwards towards the hawkesbury. To be honest if they were to abolish a seat Sydney would probably be the best one. Though renaming Grayndler would be necessary to preserve the name and Grayndler isn’t anything important tbh

I also played with the Vic tool and if Vic can gets it 39th seat back (after 2031) it would be feasible to reinstate Higgins

Werriwa is a Labor heartland seat and the former seat of Gough Whitlam. Its margin though is lower than that of Reid and Bennelong, both of which were Labor gains in 2022. Interesting how there was a 40% primary vote for the Greens in Prestons West in 2025.

Not sure if some parts of werriwa, particularly the newer suburbs at the western end of the distroct near the new badgerys creek airport, are considered more affluent and have greater numbers of self employed, tradie type workers.

These voters like those in other affluent suburbs such as oatley are considered conservative leaning. The more affluent suburbs located away from the liverpool rail line also tend to be more ethnically white and less diverse, which is a net negative for labor.

@Votante

A lot of the Werriwa that Whitlam represented is now in the seat of Fowler, which is still staunchly left (68-32 to ALP on the ALP/LIB 2PP).

Quite a few of the suburbs in current Werriwa were merely bushland when Whitlam quit Parliament after the 1977 election.

All good points above
@CJ I personally do think it is in Labor’s interest to tap Ann Stanley on the shoulder and do another Lyons. Replacing Brian Mitchell with Rebecca White was a masterstroke. Come 2028 Ann Stanley would have served 12 years in parliament and not seen as a rising star given her age as well renewel is probably interest, Werriwa has been a warning sign for sometime. I think Palestine gave Ann Stanley a temporary get out of jail free card and probably drove a UAP to GRN swing which helped Labor here. Yoh An is correct that the newer parts of Werriwa suburbs like Elizabeth Hills, Cecil Hills, Middleton Grange etc are more affluent McMansion suburbs they are also very Christian so socially conservative. So this is one area Population growth is hurting Labor as the newer areas tend to be wealthier. What Labor needs to do is Run up the Numbers in the poorer parts of Werriwa like Casula, Lurnea and the suburbs of the old Green Valley housing estate, this what Ann Stanley is failing to do but Mike Freelander in neighbouring Macarthur is succesful at. I would not neighbouring Hume as a comparison because that is a safe Liberal seat and quite different demographically. McMahon is a bit and pieces seat and there were many parts of McMahon which actually had a swing to Labor which are those parts in Blacktown Council and Penrith council. I think Carmen Lazar drove a swing in the Assyrian Community.

well we can assume that even Mitchell would have won Lyons. its was less to do with White then it was liberals collapse. hard to tell if she would have won on her own now. the redsitribution will be interesting in tasmania.

Yes but Mitchell was not doing as well as Dick Adams used to do. Rebecca White is seen as energetic. If Labor was not concerned they would not have tapped Mitchell on the shoulder in the first place you cant keep saying everything was a Liberals collapse the Libs got swings to them in some seats like Casey and Solomon. plus Lyons has a lot of White Working Class those who like Trump Dutton etc

well they tapped him on the shoulder when they were at risk of losing the seat when the libs were very competitive in the polling. theres no way to reasonably determine what the outcome would have been if she didnt run. but given the swings in the other 2 tasmanian seats its not too hard to assume that it wasnt all rebecca white.

nimalan solomon can be attriubted to local factors labor just got thumped in nt election and lost every seat within its boundaries. liberals may well have won the seat had it not happened but again we have no way to determine that. its pretty obvious from the rest of the country that labors win here was not attributed to just one person whose name was on the ballot.

Yes exactly they tapped him on the shoulder when he was at risk of losing the seat but Labor needs to think long term Dick Adams held the seat even in 1996. ann Stanley is at risk of losing the seat next time Libs do well but if they get a better candidate there is a chance that they might and I repeat might narrowly hold even in. A 2013 style loss

libs need to get a better leader first. or at least improve the current ones standing. at the moment the libs are losing seats to labor, independants and god forbid maybe one nation

But the point is Liberal leadership is not a factor Labor can control nor how good the Liberals can campaign. however what Labor can control is how good their candidate is and how effective they campaign.

this is true. we will see just how good she is in 2028 if the liberals can actually campaign

@John on your redistribution point I do reckon they’ll abolish Sydney. If they do, the area can be split between Grayndler, Kingsford Smith, and Wentworth, most likely correcting the panhandle of Kingsford Smith.

@ CJ/John
Can you put comments about redistribution on the expansion of parliament thread please.

@CJ along with the area north of the Geroges river from Cook.

(Y)

woops wrong tab. np

nimalan ive moved the rebecca white discussion to lyons