Bendigo – Australia 2028

I wonder how well a more generic NAT candidate does here? Seems there is now a pretty strong local branch and my Labor friends seemed privately pleased that Chesters nearly got knocked off and seem to think she’s potentially going to get tapped on the shoulder.

If this becomes an open race in 2028 Labor will struggle to hold here.

Labor was caught off guard this year by a hyper-local Nationals campaign that swung the seat hard whilst the Liberals played dead. It’s quite likely Labor will throw everything towards Bendigo in 2028 and won’t give up without a fight.

It’s also quite possible that Bendigo might end up being the Gilmore circa 2025 in 2028. Everyone expected them to lose only for the incumbent to increase their margin significantly.

@Darth Vader there’s the chance Jacinta Allan won’t be Premier after next year regardless of the result. I wouldn’t be surprised if Allan actually loses her seat, as I’m expecting the swing in non-Metropolitan Victoria to be pretty strong to the Coalition.

As for Chesters, she’s not really got a high profile, and she’s remained one of the quieter MP’s in Parliament.

At least with Fiona Philips in Gilmore, to @Tommo9’s point, she built a profile due to her visibility during the fires in 2020.

The reason for the labor win in Gilmore was the disastrous liberal campaign among other things. Prior to march this year it was gone. Labor would need to divert resources from other defendable seats in order to hold here. The damage is probably done Chester’s barely held on in labor’s best win in about 30 years. And only held because of the fore mentioned factors. Labor now has more seats then ever to defend in vic. They are also going to be vulnerable in places like wills Frazer macnamara etc. the more seats you have the more thin you have to spread your resources. The nats can throw everything at this seat with. No other seats to defend. Labor can only spend so much resources in one seat. If the nats got this close it would only take a small push to tip it over. It like parking your pickup truck on the railway line to try and slow down a freight train. That thing is just gonna cut through it.

Gilmore is a seat depending on local personalities it does not follow local trend
1. Fraser- There is still a big gap between Greens and ALP on primaries and it was first time ever that Greens made 2CP. For Greens to win Fraser they need Liberal preferences. The TPP is 9.2% not easy to overcome without a change in preferences. Plus Labor vote was stable last tome.
2. Wills-Agree in play in 2028
3. Macnamara-a 10% primary gap between Greens and Labor. I think Greens are starting to weaker in blue/green areas
4. FInally, to Bendigo it is a seat to watch and Labor has to devote resources.

Macnamara is too far out of reach for either the Libs or the Greens, and whichever of the two misses the 2CP will just preference Labor anyway.

IMO, Bendigo, Wills, and Menzies are the seats Labor are in a poor position in, and probably some of the first to leave Labor’s column in 2028.

*Gilmore does not follow national trend i mean

@ CJ
I live in Menzies it is not a seat Labor should win but growing Chinese community is probably the reason Libs lost.

Nimalan, I think Keith Wolahan’s profile as a moderate helped to minimise the anti-Liberal swing in Menzies. It recorded a much smaller swing compared to neighbouring Aston and Deakin which both have similar demographics.

Michael Sukkar as a right faction Liberal MP and Mary Doyle’s incumbency/sophomore surge probably explain why Deakin and Aston saw larger swings, closer to the national average compared to Menzies. Wollahan would be a good candidate to contest a rematch in 2028 and if running a more localised/independent campaign could win narrowly like Tim Wilson in Goldstein.

@ Yohn
I do agree Keith Wolahan’s profile did moderate the anti-Labor swing to some extent. I also accept Aston and Deakin do have simmilar demographics and the local candiate factors in those latter two seats. However, one point is that Menzies is generally more affluent than Aston and Deakin (not a huge differece, but a delta nevertherless), it has also more semi-rural areas. For this reason, i think there is a stubborn Liberal vote compared to Aston and Deakin especially among the European voters.
From a demographic perspective. I would say Menzies is second tier in terms of SES after the Teal seats/Ryan along with seats like Berowra, Mitchell, Moore, Tangney, Cook etc maybe you could say Tier 1 for Teal seats, Ryan, Macnamara and Tier 2 for Menzies, Moore etc while Aston, Deakin are above average but not a huge amount maybe like Bonner, Banks in terms of SES.

Wills is gone.

If nats make another run at Bendigo ists probably gone. labor cant outspend the nats. CHesters only survived de to the libs sending them voters and the heavy left vote in castlemaine/macedon

if wolahan doesnt contest the vctorian election hell probably run again in menzies next time. he only lost due to the redistribution and the poor liberal campaign. remove only one of those factors and he would have held it.

macnamra the grens need to outpool labor. i would write them off in 2028 because labor just had a very good year and the greens a very bad one. if libs can make the count in a bad year i cant see them dropping out. labors best chance it to probably reomve that caufield tail and take in parts of melbourne south of the yarra.

does anyone actually think susan ley is doing a good job and will survuve til the election?

@ John
Maybe dont make bold predictions because it can be laughable later
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/wills2022/comment-page-4#comment-816281
You told me that Josh Burns, Michelle Ananda-Rajah, Jerome Laxale and Peter Khalil all how supported LGBT census questions will be out of a job. All of them have a job but Peter Dutton who you praised does not have a job.
Before a single vote was cast you Congratulated Susie Bower on her elections to Lyons. She did not run over a nun and still lost in a huge swing. You also mentioned Brian Mitchell should start writing his memoirs on March 2024. You also advised LNP to focus on Rankin

yes but to be fair i didnt expect peterd utton and liberals to do that badly. and in brian mitchells case i idnt forsee labor trying to steal government only a year after the last election if that hadnt happened i would of been right on all counts. its not my fault other people are incompetent/

It is incumbent on you to realise that theire are factors that you dont control. There is difference between what you would like to happen and what you think will happen. Many people in the Labor party would like to retain Bendigo and Pearce but they need to factor that there are demographics there that can swing away from them. It is not Albanese’s fault that Putin invaded Ukraine before he became PM but he needs to realise that this has driven higher gas prices which is one the reasons that the electricity prices are higher/inflation increased and thats Libs have better prospects in White Outer suburbs than would have otherwise.

gas prices have nothing to do with electicity prices. seriously how much were we reliant on russia before that happened? its just antoher sleight of hnad tactic by the govt to divert attentiotn from the fact that reneable enrgy is dricing up pirces

sorry i dont acount for peoples incompetence though i really probably should given all the crap ive gone through especially with govt departments

@ About 20% of our electricity is generated through burning gas instead of Coal. As Western countries (European) no long buy gas from Russia they have to puchase from other sources. Australia is a gas exporter so many of our Gas exportters often sell to places which sell at a higher price. So Australian purchasers have to purchase at a higher price
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-24/root-causes-of-higher-power-prices-remain-as-labor-offers-rebate/105089488

Over the summer, there was some chatter about Andrew Lethlean possibly challenging Jacinta Allan in B-East. At the time, it looked like a viable option, but perhaps not quite as much now. I do not think she is in serious trouble at the current moment. If he chose to run locally, it would likely take him out of the 2028 race. Win and he would have to give up a state seat in less than two years, lose and he would be a twice loser and could face preselection issues.

As far as Sussan Ley – whether she survives the next six months is anyone’s guess, but Sussan Ley is not the real problem the Liberals have. Merely replacing her won’t guarantee much if the electorate is going one way and the party is going another. Tim Wilson is going to have to work twice as hard to plug the leaks with voters because of the change to the net-zero policy. Hastie is probably a more charming figure than Peter Dutton, but 10 seats isn’t 34 seats.

its a start. im hoping the liberals are able to come up with some climate policy but not a reduce emmissions at all costs plan. im sure they will form some sort of policy come next election. for now people are probably more concerned with susan ley being incompetent.

Lots of cross-overs between state and federal here understandably but here’s my take.

– Bendigo was surprisingly close this time thanks to the Liberals running dead and the Nationals running a concerted campaign which clearly nearly paid off. Labor didn’t put much effort into the seat and was outrun in terms of funds but still hung on. Come 2028 you’d expect them to heavily sandbag this seat which they’re capable of pulling off.

– Bendigo East is clearly the more battleground seat than Bendigo West. Jacinta Allan isn’t going to switch seats given her ego but Victorian Labor would’ve seen the results in Bendigo and are going to be much better prepared this time (given the 18 month headstart).

– It’s pointless trying to figure out which seats will fall in 2028 for sure. Sure we’ve got seats on less than 1% margins on both sides but until we know what the political landscape in 2028 is going to be then it’s kind of a mix of ‘Tell em they’re dreamin’ or ‘I wish this was on my Santa’s Wishlist’. People predicted Gilmore, Lyons, Lingiari, Paterson, McEwen, Aston, Bennelong, Tangney, Curtin to fall but they all retained with increased margins. The reality is no one knows what will be on the agenda come 2028. For all we might know Bendigo might end up like Gilmore/Lyons/Lingiari and see a swing back to the incumbent. Everything’s up in the air.

The only outcomes I’m willing to predict is that Maranoa and Grayndler will remain reliably Labor come next election.

@Tommo9 Newcastle seems a pretty safe bet for Labor. After all, it’s been held by Labor since Federation…

Also, Maranoa for Labor? We aren’t in the 1940’s mate.

@CJ My mistake I should’ve said remained reliably safe for their incumbents (aka David Littleproud and Albo respectively).

Yes Newcastle too, plus the likes of Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Clark, Warringah, Oxley, Moreton, New England, Lyne, Page, Mallee, Nicholls, Gippsland etc.

@CJ
Fun Fact in 1940 Labor won Maranoa but not Moreton or Lilley how times have changed.