Incumbent MLCs
- Michael Galea (Labor), since 2022
- Ann-Marie Hermans (Liberal), since 2022
- David Limbrick (Libertarian), since 2018
- Rachel Payne (Legalise Cannabis), since 2022
- Lee Tarlamis (Labor), since 2020. Previously 2010-2014
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Berwick | LIB 4.7% | Dandenong | ALP 18.3% | Narre Warren North | ALP 8.7% |
| Carrum | ALP 9.8% | Frankston | ALP 8.7% | Narre Warren South | ALP 8.3% |
| Clarinda | ALP 10.2% | Mordialloc | ALP 8.2% | Rowville | LIB 3.7% |
| Cranbourne | ALP 9.0% | Mulgrave | ALP 10.8% |
The South Eastern Metropolitan region covers Melbourne’s outer south-eastern suburbs, stretching from Clayton and Rowville in the north to Frankston and Cranbourne in the south, and from Mordialloc in the west to Narre Warren in the east.
The region includes nine Labor seats and two Liberal seats.
History
The South Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
The first election saw three Labor and two Liberal MLCs elected. The 2010 election repeated the same result.
Labor lost their third seat to the Greens in 2014.
Labor regained their third seat in 2018, with both Liberal and the Greens losing a seat. The fifth seat went to the Liberal Democrats (now the Libertarian Party).
One of those three Labor MPs, Adem Somyurek, resigned from the ALP in 2020 before facing expulsion after the publication of allegations around branch stacking. Somyurek ran for the Northern Metropolitan region for the Northern Metropolitan region in 2022 and won a seat there.
Labor did not retain their third seat in 2022, losing that seat to Legalise Cannabis.
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 184,810 | 39.3 | -9.5 | 2.360 |
| Liberal | 125,762 | 26.8 | -2.8 | 1.606 |
| Greens | 31,577 | 6.7 | +1.2 | 0.403 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 24,672 | 5.3 | +5.3 | 0.315 |
| Liberal Democrats | 16,971 | 3.6 | +2.5 | 0.217 |
| Democratic Labour | 15,399 | 3.3 | +1.8 | 0.197 |
| Hinch’s Justice | 9,334 | 2.0 | -1.1 | 0.119 |
| Family First | 9,025 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 0.115 |
| Freedom Party | 8,306 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 0.106 |
| One Nation | 8,299 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 0.106 |
| Animal Justice | 6,481 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 0.083 |
| United Australia | 5,495 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.070 |
| Sack Dan Andrews | 4,554 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.058 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 4,112 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 0.053 |
| Health Australia | 3,461 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.044 |
| Companions and Pets | 2,425 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.031 |
| Others | 9,092 | 1.9 | 0.116 | |
| Informal | 18,076 | 3.7 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor retained two seats and the Liberal Party retained one.
Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:
- Manju Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.676
- Rachel Payne (LGC) – 0.428
- Alex Breskin (GRN) – 0.417
- Tien Kieu (ALP) – 0.352
- David Limbrick (LDP) – 0.298
- Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.242
- Jennifer Bowden (DLP) – 0.203
- Beth Stevens (ON) – 0.127
- Lee Jones (FF) – 0.119
- Morgan Jonas (FPV) – 0.113
Freedom Party preferences flowed very strongly to Family First:
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.677
- Payne (LGC) – 0.428
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.417
- Kieu (ALP) – 0.353
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.303
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.243
- Jones (FF) – 0.214
- Bowden (DLP) – 0.204
- Stevens (ON) – 0.133
One Nation preferences also flowed strongly to Family First
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.679
- Payne (LGC) – 0.430
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.419
- Kieu (ALP) – 0.353
- Jones (FF) – 0.321
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.309
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.248
- Bowden (DLP) – 0.204
DLP preferences flowed very strongly to the Liberal Democrats:
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.680
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.499
- Payne (LGC) – 0.431
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.420
- Kieu (ALP) – 0.354
- Jones (FF) – 0.323
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.249
Hinch’s preferences mostly flowed to the LDP:
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.692
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.684
- Payne (LGC) – 0.450
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.427
- Kieu (ALP) – 0.356
- Jones (FF) – 0.325
Family First preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Party and the LDP:
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.859
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.819
- Payne (LGC) – 0.451
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.427
- Kieu (ALP) – 0.357
Labor preferences mostly flowed to Legalise Cannabis:
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.860
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.820
- Payne (LGC) – 0.782
- Breskin (GRN) – 0.435
Greens preferences pushed Legalise Cannabis over quota:
- Payne (LGC) – 1.141
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.864
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.825
The Legalise Cannabis surplus pushed the LDP ahead of the Liberal Party, and Limbrick won by just 0.034 quotas:
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.931
- Hanumantharayappa (LIB) – 0.897
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in South Eastern Metropolitan by a large margin.
Labor topped the primary vote in nine out of eleven seats, with the Liberal Party first in Berwick and Rowville.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 33.2% in Rowville to 44.6% in Dandenong.
The Liberal primary vote ranged from 19.1% in Dandenong to 35.7% in Berwick and Rowville.
Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the South Eastern Metropolitan region
I dont expect much change in the region in terms of a Left:Right Split i expect it will remain a 3:2 Split in favour of the left. There was not much anti-lockdown sentiment here and i think the Labor brand is probably strongest here than any other Region as evidence by all areas in this Region having strong swings to Labor federally unlike the rest of the state. I think Greens may take the seat held by Legalise Cannabis i expect their brand to grow especially in working class CALD areas. There is signficant Muslim communities in Dandenong, the Narre Warrens and to a lesser extent Cranbourne which are te weakest areas currently for Greens so the gap. The Libs and Libertarians will compete for the last seat.
id say 1 liberal 2 labor. Liberal/LDP and LGC/Greens to fight over the last two seats. labor previously sent most of its excess to LGC and that pushed them too far ahead of the Greens if they do the same deal and theres no reason to believe they wont LGC will win it. Labor would probably rather deal with LGC then the Greens. LIB and LDP will be a tossup. though LDP could count on minor parties support.
@ John
I think Greens have a good chance to defeat LGC because their primary vote will increase in Muslim parts i am not sure if that is enough to overcome that Labor surplus may go to LGC over Greens.
it wont matter the labor surplus is too much it puts them way out in front. maybe once GVT are abolished. which is probably why the greens want them gone
kind o like the greens having a full tank of gas at halfway up the hill and the LGC have run out at the top of the hill. gravity will do the rest.
because theyre arent enough votes left (if any) to overcome the lead
Colleen Harkin is running here instead of Southern Metro where she lives . I wonder how much difficulty One Nation will have in gaining a seat in Southern Metro (not putting Colleen here suggests they think they will have a bit) and whether they will get to two seats in Southeastern Metro like some polls are suggesting.