Frankston – Victoria 2026

ALP 8.7%

Incumbent MP
Paul Edbrooke, since 2014.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Frankston, Frankston North, Frankston South and Karingal as well as part of Seaford, all within the City of Frankston.

History
A seat with the name “Frankston” has existed twice: from 1967 to 1985, and again since 1992.

The seat was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Edward Meagher, who had served as Member for Mentone from 1955 to 1967. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1961 until 1973. Meagher retired from Frankston in 1976.

Frankston was won in 1976 by Graeme Weideman. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1981 to 1982, when he lost Frankston, and the Liberal government lost power.

Frankston was won by the ALP’s Jane Hill. In 1985, Frankston was abolished and replaced by Frankston North and Frankston South. Hill moved to the seat of Frankston North, and Weideman returned to Parliament as the Liberal Member for Frankston South.

In 1992, the two seats were redrawn again, being replaced by Frankston and Frankston East. Hill contested the marginal seat of Frankston East unsuccessfully, while Weideman won Frankston, which was a relatively safe Liberal seat.

Weideman retired in 1996, and was succeeded by Andrea McCall, also from the Liberal Party. McCall was re-elected in 1999.

Shortly after the 1999 Victorian state election, the Frankston East by-election was won by the ALP, bringing Labor into power. Prior to the 2002 election, Frankston East was abolished in a by-election, which brought strong Labor areas into the seat of Frankston.

At the 2002 election, McCall lost the redrawn Frankston to the ALP’s Alistair Harkness. Harkness was re-elected in 2006.

In 2010, Harkness was defeated by Liberal candidate Geoff Shaw.

Shaw has been a very controversial MP during his first term in Parliament. In 2012, he was accused of using his parliamentary vehicle as part of his business. In March 2013, Shaw resigned from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party held a slim 45-43 majority in the Assembly, so Shaw’s resignation put him in the balance of power. The last eighteen months saw Shaw demand concessions from the government, and come into conflict with the Speaker at the time, which resulted in the Speaker resigning. He was charged with a number of offences in late 2013, which were later dropped.

Shaw ran as an independent in Frankston in 2014, and came a distant third. Labor’s Paul Edbrooke was elected. Edbrooke has been re-elected twice.

Candidates

Assessment
If there is a big swing to the Coalition they could gain this seat. One Nation would poll a substantial vote share, but it would be a stretch for them to win here.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Edbrooke Labor 16,595 41.5 -4.8
Michael O’Reilly Liberal 11,762 29.4 -2.9
Emily Green Greens 5,060 12.7 +5.0
Dragan Suric Freedom Party 1,443 3.6 +3.6
Chrysten Abraham Liberal Democrats 1,420 3.6 +3.6
Elizabeth Johnston Animal Justice 1,365 3.4 +0.6
Richard Brown Family First 1,083 2.7 +2.7
Darren Paul Bergwerf Independent 844 2.1 +2.1
Henry Kelsall Independent 369 0.9 -1.0
Informal 2,323 5.5

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Edbrooke Labor 23,429 58.7 -1.5
Michael O’Reilly Liberal 16,512 41.3 +1.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.7% in the south to 62.3% in the north-west.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.4% in the north-east to 16.1% in the north-west.

Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 14.0 57.7 7,208 18.0
North-East 13.4 62.1 3,841 9.6
North-West 16.1 62.3 3,426 8.5
Pre-poll 11.1 57.3 19,091 47.6
Other votes 13.3 59.8 6,532 16.3

Election results in Frankston at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Out of the 4 sand belt seats I think this would be the most a risk given the gentrification here as it becomes more affluent like neighbouring electorate of Mornington, however there is still a large working class vote that will assist Labor.

  2. @ Spacefish
    I dont think gentrification is hurting Labor post 2018 since Turnbull was ousted. Carrum is probbaly the the seat thas gentrified the most. 2010/2014 were the first times that Carrum had a Liberal TPP higher than state result. Increased gentification means people are less dependent on government services and more fiscally conservative. However, it can also make people more socially progressive. Adjusted to 2022 boundaries, Issacs actually had a better result for the Voice than the Republic in 1999 while Dunkley was only sightly worse despite the Voice doing muchworse statewide/nationwide than the Republic. This seat is also very irreligious and has a higher % of of people with no religion than Bentleigh which as a Greek/Jewish community.