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Out of the 4 sand belt seats I think this would be the most a risk given the gentrification here as it becomes more affluent like neighbouring electorate of Mornington, however there is still a large working class vote that will assist Labor.
@ Spacefish
I dont think gentrification is hurting Labor post 2018 since Turnbull was ousted. Carrum is probbaly the the seat thas gentrified the most. 2010/2014 were the first times that Carrum had a Liberal TPP higher than state result. Increased gentification means people are less dependent on government services and more fiscally conservative. However, it can also make people more socially progressive. Adjusted to 2022 boundaries, Issacs actually had a better result for the Voice than the Republic in 1999 while Dunkley was only sightly worse despite the Voice doing muchworse statewide/nationwide than the Republic. This seat is also very irreligious and has a higher % of of people with no religion than Bentleigh which as a Greek/Jewish community.