Frankston – Victoria 2026

Out of the 4 sand belt seats I think this would be the most a risk given the gentrification here as it becomes more affluent like neighbouring electorate of Mornington, however there is still a large working class vote that will assist Labor.

@ Spacefish
I dont think gentrification is hurting Labor post 2018 since Turnbull was ousted. Carrum is probbaly the the seat thas gentrified the most. 2010/2014 were the first times that Carrum had a Liberal TPP higher than state result. Increased gentification means people are less dependent on government services and more fiscally conservative. However, it can also make people more socially progressive. Adjusted to 2022 boundaries, Issacs actually had a better result for the Voice than the Republic in 1999 while Dunkley was only sightly worse despite the Voice doing muchworse statewide/nationwide than the Republic. This seat is also very irreligious and has a higher % of of people with no religion than Bentleigh which as a Greek/Jewish community.

Finally on the Trilogy of 3 Outer South East Seats that Kos Samaras mentioned that ONP could do well (others being Carrum and Cranbourne already discussed.
Frankston has a lot of White Working class areas the more inland parts of the seat such as Karingal and welfare class Frankston North. Unlke Cranbourne it has a tealish area in Frankston South which is Upper Middle class. Compared to Cranbourne, Frankston is much more socio-economically mixed. It is also highly irreligious unlike Casey council which as both a Christian right and a very large Non Christian CALD community. However, one big sifference compared to Casey council is that Frankston is extremely White and has had little ethnic diversification while Casey council may have had the fastest ethnocultural shifts and may become CALD majority by the 2026 Census and around 45% people of colour.

@Nimalan, agree as Frankston Council is around 89% White in the 2021 Census compared to around 65% for Greater Melbourne or around 75% for the National Average and in fact is very similar to the National Racial Demographics during the Turn of the Century.

Like Carrum, ON could be in with a chance here. Can’t see Labor coming third unless their outer suburban vote really collapses. It would seem the battle will be between Libs and ON to see who gets into the 2cp.

@ Marh
interesting how so many suburbs have not changed much demographically. Even the Bayside suburbs closer to the city have not changed much or places like Northern Beaches or Sutherland Shire. The Growth areas are the ones that are changing the fastest.

I don’t think this seat will fall to either One Nation or the Liberals. The Liberals didn’t do all that well in the Dunkley by-election which was held during a somewhat similar economic climate as we’re in now. The Dunkley Voice results, while still voting no at a slightly higher rate than the Vic average, were nowhere near as high for no as Hawke or La Trobe which will be bigger targets for One Nation.

Nimalan

The Northern Beaches and the Shire have changed. They might still be very Anglo but they have gentrified.

40 years ago suburbs such as Curl Curl, Como or Jannali had lots of small fibro houses. Curl Curl now is lots of three storey houses straining to get a view of the ocean. Narraweena and Brookvale had lots of public housing. Places like Long Reef and Collaroy were pretty desirable but that ‘desirable’ is continuous from Manly northwards. The Shire is similar but I am not nearly as familiar with that area.

@ Redistributed

Yes you are correct Socio-economically 100% but i was referring to ethnically/culturally. The Shire is an area especially which has becoming stronger for the Libs and Cook is probably the jewel in the Liberal crown now. The beachside suburbs between Mordiallic and Frankston are also gentrifying but not diversiying ethnically. People often think of the Middle Ring Eastern suburbs when they think of diversity such as your neck of the woods but i always remind people that those areas have higher property values so can only attract affluent immigrants such as Chinese while more blue collar parts of Melbourne are diverysfying faster as they can also attract immigrants who come on humanitarian visas etc.

@Nimalan, it is interesting Frankston City Council is the fourth whitest council in Melbourne (and is actually the whitest fully or almost fully urbanized Council) yet it is next to Greater Dandenong which with lowest proportion of Whites for a Greater Melbourne Council at around 30%.

@ Marh
I suspect Greater Dandennong had a lot of manufacturing jobs so it attracted a lot of working class ethnic groups. Broimbank and Hume councils are the next least White councils and they are very industrial. Frankston council does not have much growth areas either to same extent. Casey council raplidly diversfied as it was a spillover of Greater Dandenong and had new housing estates. i would say the 3 most White LGAs are Yarra Ranges, Nilumbik and Mornington Penisula but they have a lot of small towns and rural areas. Kingston council will be very white if it excluded the more diverse areas north of the Dingley Bypass which are on the Dandenong Rail corridor. I feel Cardinia is rapidly diversying and in a decade will be more diverse than very affluent LGAs such as Stonnington, Port Phillip. Glen Eira and Boroondora

@Nimalan, the Majority Minority Councils in Melbourne (if using Western Country of Birth from father) are Greater Dandenong, Wyndham, City of Melbourne, Monash, Brimbank and Hume. I would expect when census for this year be released June next year that Casey and probably Melton and Whitehorse would join the list. I will expect Sydney to be a Majority Minority by the 2031 Census and Melbourne hit this by mid 2030s.

@ Marh
I agree it is the Outer Growth areas except Cardinia are on track to majority mimority along with working class councils Greater Dandenong and Brimbank. Monash is more diverse than other Eastern suburbs councils as it a major univeristy.
I agree Casey and Melton will join the list next along with Whittlesea council as non European majority. I am personally doubtful of Whitehorse will join next since while it about 26% Chinese ancestry in 2021 census it other non European groups are not as large. Its Indian commiunity is around Greater Melbourne average. My local council of Manningham is very CALD but its Non European community is only Chinese 25% and Iranians 3% its other Non European communities such as South Asians, Pacific Islanders and Muslim, Veitanmese and Filipino is below Victorian Average. So Manningham maybe 33% Non White which would still be lower than Casey or Melton is today.

@Nimalan, I did the calculations by combining father of birth from White Nations and non-White nations (I placed South Africa, Israel and Uruguay as White Nations since I assume majority of the immigrants are both racially and culturally European while the rest of Latin America as well as Middle East, Turkey and Iranians are Minorities although I acknowledge the classifications is highly contentious) which I found Manningham is 43% non-white and Whitehorse is 44% non-white. I do agree Manningham would probably narrowly miss being a majority minority while Whitehorse is most likely going to be very close meaning it can go either way (50/50 chance) as it has proportionally more recent arrivals and is more diverse than Manningham due to railway lines, spillover of Monash Council and Deakin University.

Thanks Marh for doing the calculaitons.
I think Whitehorse probably will become more diverse it is possible that it is electorate is less diverse as it is student heavy especially Box hill and Burwood. I suspect that is also why Whitehorse has more South Asians than Manningham as well but not as much as Monash or the growth corridors. I also think Whitehorse many have more Anglos especially in Blackburn and Mitcham but less Southern Europeans than Manningham
I think some councils like Banyule, Hobsons Bay, Moonee Valley, Bayside are showing little diversification. Glen Eira is diversyfing in some areas like Glen Huntly, Caulfield East and Carneigie but i think that is mainly students or recent graduates who may not have citizenship yet. I think Yarra Council is more White than in 2001 while neighbouring Melbourne LGA is the opposite i think. Some inner city areas like Yarraville, Fittzroy, Richmond maybe more White than at the turn of the century. Marrickville in Sydney is also possibly a suburb that is getting Whiter over time.

My area of Melbourne around Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury has become decidedly less diverse over the past quarter of a century, although it previously had a larger Greek and Italian community which are still white, so wouldn’t say it’s getting whiter, but more Anglo-Celtic. The same is probably true of Brunswick.

Adam
I checked the data for the City of Darebin and between 2011 and 2021 its proportions of Australian born, both parents Australian born and English only spoken at home went up quite noticeably.

@ Adam/Redistributed
Areas that gentrifying often leads to the dominant ethnic group increase its share or atleast stagnates diverification chances.
In Northcote i think it the diversification has led to increased Anglo but also prevented growth of non Europeans i think the northern part of Darebin is not diversyfing as Fast as it was in the 1990s or early 2000s when Preston/Resevior attracted a lot of working class Non Europeans i feel by 2031 the northern part of Darebin will be getting more White and less people of colour. I think Coburg will be an area that will turn more Anglo while Italians, Greeks, Lebanese and Turks declining this will lead it to be more Green Left.
Many parts of the Western World are seeing this including in parts of London, New York. Perhaps the best example in Washington D.C which is 1970 was 71% Black and 26% White today it is now 41% Black and 38% White i feel by 2030 US census Whites will out number Blacks for the first time in the Post War era.

I suggest using Profile ID-https://profile.id.com.au/manningham/birthplace?EndYear=2001&DataType=UR to compare trends.