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Janelle Saffin as the incumbent MP definitely has a strong personal vote. She achieved a big swing last election and also held onto the marginal federal seat of Page for two terms, even increasing her vote in 2010 when running against now MP Kevin Hogan, who defeated her in 2013.
She would be a heavy favourite to win re-election, especially with Labor’s statewide vote (both primary and 2PP) remaining fairly high in opinion polls. But given her age, she may decide to retire in 2027 which could make the seat more competitive (though Labor would likely still be favoured to retain with a new candidate, as the seat covers more progressive leaning parts of the NSW North Coast).
Yeah the floods and her role in them really endeared her to the community and made the seat very safe with her as the MP, a generic Labor candidate with Minns as leader could turn this seat into a very interesting 3-way contest – probably more likely if Saffin retires in 2031 though rather than this cycle
Yoh i think she will probably stay on. Labor are in minority and if she reitres labor could well lose the seat. Labor will need evrey seat they can as they cant be guaranteed to pick up seats. if they lose seats they will be in further minority. i dont see labor losing govt though. this would probably be her last election. At the next redistribution im gonna sugget Lismore lose parts of Murwillumbah to Tweed. Put Byron Bay LGA back in Ballina and Tenterfield into Northern Tablelands. Then push it to the Richmond River and possibly all of Casino SA1s. without saffins vote Labor would probably lose this seat.
Agree John about the proposed changes to Lismore, Murwillumbah does seem an odd fit for this seat having closer connections with Tweed Heads and the rest of Tweed council (which are located in its namesake seat).
unfortunately tweed is not under quota enough to put it all in there. i was able to put in south murwillumbah as well as some of the surrounds that are the other side of the rivers/creek that surround it.