Berwick – Victoria 2026

LIB 4.7%

Incumbent MP
Brad Battin, since 2022. Previously member for Gembrook 2010-2022.

Geography
South-eastern fringe of Melbourne. Berwick covers the suburbs of Berwick, Beaconsfield, Beaconsfield Upper, Guys Hill and part of Clyde North. A majority of the seat lies in the Casey council area, with the north-eastern corner in the Cardinia council area.

History
The seat of Berwick was newly created in 2022 out of parts of Bass, Gembrook and Narre Warren South.

The electoral district of Berwick previously existed from 1976 until 2002. It was held by Liberal MP Robert Dean from 1992, but never by large margins.

The seats of Bass, Gembrook and Narre Warren South were created in 2002.

Bass was held by the Liberal Party’s Ken Smith from 2002 until 2014. Smith served as Speaker from 2010 until 2014, when he retired.

Bass was won in 2014 by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter lost after one term in 2018 to Labor candidate Jordan Crugnale.

Labor’s Tammy Lobato won Gembrook in 2002, and held the seat until 2010.

Lobato lost Gembrook to Liberal candidate Brad Battin in 2010, and he held the seat until 2022.

Narre Warren South has always been held by Labor, with margins around 55-57% at the last three elections.

Battin won the seat of Berwick when Gembrook was abolished in 2022. Battin was elected Liberal leader in late December 2024, but lasted just eleven months, losing the leadership in November 2025.

Candidates

Assessment
Brad Battin will likely win re-election but seats on the outskirts of Melbourne like this one will probably have a high One Nation vote which could be of concern.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brad Battin Liberal 20,031 45.2 -2.6
Malik Zaveer Labor 15,874 35.8 -6.6
Hayley Perry Greens 4,297 9.7 +2.4
Kerry Haupt Freedom Party 1,570 3.5 +3.5
Joel Van Der Horst Family First 1,488 3.4 +3.4
Katherine Dolheguy Animal Justice 1,029 2.3 +2.3
Informal 1,875 4.1

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brad Battin Liberal 24,230 54.7 +3.4
Malik Zaveer Labor 20,058 45.3 -3.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the vote in the north-east (63.6%) and the north-west (57.7%), while Labor polled 53.4% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim LIB 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 11.1 46.6 7,775 17.5
North-West 11.4 57.7 3,312 7.5
North-East 11.0 63.6 1,961 4.4
Pre-poll 9.2 55.8 23,028 51.9
Other votes 8.9 56.0 8,270 18.6

Election results in Berwick at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

Become a Patron!

17 COMMENTS

  1. Berwick was in the top 10 suburbs for population growth, the change of the demographics here will be fascinating to watch.

  4. State seat of Berwick is spit between 3 federal seats Bruce 40-45%, La Trobe 10-15% & Holt 40-45% and the booths don’t really line up so it makes difficult for me to tell. I would say that on rough numbers that Brad Battin would be in trouble however, Labor had a very popular local member and a dud candidate in Bruce and spent a lot of recourses in Holt as well so the margins could very inflated. Finally I would say that he is the leader and probably has built up his profile which could help him hold on.

  5. I agree that Federal Labor’s margins in Bruce and Holt are quite inflated. The Liberals had a disatrous campaign whilst Labor had a solid campaign and over-sandbagged Bruce and Holt out of fear. Federal Labor got 55% of the 2PP in Victoria and I doubt state Labor will get a statewide 2PP anywhere near that in 2026.

  6. In the Herald Sun over the past several days, it seems like Battin’s leadership of the Victorian Liberals seems to be terminal, with many of his former backers, particularly after the recent shadow cabinet reshuffle, now wanting to get rid of him. Even murmurings that Pesutto and Deeming both be elevated to shadow cabinet leadership afterwards. While she hasn’t declared to challenge, Jess Wilson might very well be promoted again, this time to the top.

  8. @Nimalan while she’s only a shadow assistant minister this could be one of the worst appointments in history. No John Pesutto in there, but Moira Deeming gets a spot?

  9. @ Nether Portal
    I think Battin is hoping that if she gets promoted she will be less of a loose cannon and play for the team and not her own games. This saga just never ends Deeming could back into party room, won the case, got paid her costs and still creates looks for attention. She started a petition against the Dan Andrews statue but when she was on cross bench actually helped Labor pass legislation.

  10. The only logic i can think of to justify Deeming’s promotion would be to give her something before she loses preselection then her supporters in the party would accept it. Not having John Pesutto on the front bench is a poor decision.

  12. Surprise surprise she is in the Outer Ministry with Bev McArthur that voted against the ban on Conversion Therapy. She’s 76 so presumably wouldn’t be a front bench minister in a Liberal government. Battins days might be numbered, although I am not sure about that, but Jess Wilson seems too new for leadership right now. She certainly cuts a better profile for an election but can she corral the sheep.

  13. Battin appears to be trying to placate the various factions and the promotion of Jess Wilson knee-capped the mods in terms of a potential spill.

    As others have mentioned Deeming is no certainty to survive preselection so perhaps Battin is hoping the problem solves itself

  15. The results of the Spill Motion were 19 votes for it while there were 13 against it. I dont know if there will be revenge later.