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Berwick was in the top 10 suburbs for population growth, the change of the demographics here will be fascinating to watch.
As evidenced by the fact the seat is way over quota.
Is this seat Labor on Federal results?
State seat of Berwick is spit between 3 federal seats Bruce 40-45%, La Trobe 10-15% & Holt 40-45% and the booths don’t really line up so it makes difficult for me to tell. I would say that on rough numbers that Brad Battin would be in trouble however, Labor had a very popular local member and a dud candidate in Bruce and spent a lot of recourses in Holt as well so the margins could very inflated. Finally I would say that he is the leader and probably has built up his profile which could help him hold on.
I agree that Federal Labor’s margins in Bruce and Holt are quite inflated. The Liberals had a disatrous campaign whilst Labor had a solid campaign and over-sandbagged Bruce and Holt out of fear. Federal Labor got 55% of the 2PP in Victoria and I doubt state Labor will get a statewide 2PP anywhere near that in 2026.