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Berwick was in the top 10 suburbs for population growth, the change of the demographics here will be fascinating to watch.
As evidenced by the fact the seat is way over quota.
Is this seat Labor on Federal results?
State seat of Berwick is spit between 3 federal seats Bruce 40-45%, La Trobe 10-15% & Holt 40-45% and the booths don’t really line up so it makes difficult for me to tell. I would say that on rough numbers that Brad Battin would be in trouble however, Labor had a very popular local member and a dud candidate in Bruce and spent a lot of recourses in Holt as well so the margins could very inflated. Finally I would say that he is the leader and probably has built up his profile which could help him hold on.
I agree that Federal Labor’s margins in Bruce and Holt are quite inflated. The Liberals had a disatrous campaign whilst Labor had a solid campaign and over-sandbagged Bruce and Holt out of fear. Federal Labor got 55% of the 2PP in Victoria and I doubt state Labor will get a statewide 2PP anywhere near that in 2026.
In the Herald Sun over the past several days, it seems like Battin’s leadership of the Victorian Liberals seems to be terminal, with many of his former backers, particularly after the recent shadow cabinet reshuffle, now wanting to get rid of him. Even murmurings that Pesutto and Deeming both be elevated to shadow cabinet leadership afterwards. While she hasn’t declared to challenge, Jess Wilson might very well be promoted again, this time to the top.
Brad Battin has promoted Deeming to Front bench
@Nimalan while she’s only a shadow assistant minister this could be one of the worst appointments in history. No John Pesutto in there, but Moira Deeming gets a spot?
@ Nether Portal
I think Battin is hoping that if she gets promoted she will be less of a loose cannon and play for the team and not her own games. This saga just never ends Deeming could back into party room, won the case, got paid her costs and still creates looks for attention. She started a petition against the Dan Andrews statue but when she was on cross bench actually helped Labor pass legislation.
The only logic i can think of to justify Deeming’s promotion would be to give her something before she loses preselection then her supporters in the party would accept it. Not having John Pesutto on the front bench is a poor decision.
Deeming is unsuitable for the liberal front bench
Surprise surprise she is in the Outer Ministry with Bev McArthur that voted against the ban on Conversion Therapy. She’s 76 so presumably wouldn’t be a front bench minister in a Liberal government. Battins days might be numbered, although I am not sure about that, but Jess Wilson seems too new for leadership right now. She certainly cuts a better profile for an election but can she corral the sheep.
Battin appears to be trying to placate the various factions and the promotion of Jess Wilson knee-capped the mods in terms of a potential spill.
As others have mentioned Deeming is no certainty to survive preselection so perhaps Battin is hoping the problem solves itself