Mordialloc – Victoria 2026

Labor hold, Adding Keysborough into this electorate has really hurt Liberals chances of winning here also the population growth in Keysborough won’t help the Liberals either.

I don’t see the Liberals regaining Mordialloc nor Carrum like they did in 2010. They’re solidified for Labor and are fairly progressive (to varying degrees).

Did you mean to include Keysborough Gardens in Aspendale group?

Ah yes, I have fixed it now.

Some level crossings were removed today in this seat and a new station open at Mordiallic. While i expect there to be a swing here especially among Fiscal Conservatives i still expect Labor to retain this but will become a marginal seat once again maybe 5% swing to Labor.

@Nimalan, agree as I think the only reason why the seats on Frankston Line was won in 2010 which by extension enable Liberal Party in win the state election was due to the unreliability of the Frankston Line and was also the reason why Labor only won narrowly in those seat in 2014 and enabled a majority Labor Government is the process.

Agree Marh
Although the Gentrification along the Bay was helping Libs prior to 2018 when it reversed after Turnbull was ousted and Libs changed directions.
For example in 2010 Libs won Carrum with a margin greater than than their statewide TPP
I meant to say 5% swing to Libs

@Redistributed,
In response to your question to me in the Bentleigh chat. This is a seat where we could potentially small swing to Labor in the ttp or margin effectively staying the same for a few reasons. Firstly, Labor has spent a significant amount of money on the Frankston line after their narrow 2010 defeat. Secondly, Tim Richardson is very active and popular local member. Thirdly, new station open at Mordiallic has opened so people can see the government investing which is general received well. Finally, voters in this part of Melbourne won’t be enamoured with the Liberals doing a deal with a preference swap with One Nation (I know they haven’t made an offical deal as of yet but it’s likely given what happened in SA and what’s happened federally).

@Spacefish: I don’t think Mordialloc or any Frankston line seat will record a 2PP swing TOWARDS Labor. There’s no anti-lockdown sentiment or any other factor in these seats in the 2022 VIC state election that could have suppressed the Labor vote in 2022 and which could be corrected in the 2026 VIC state election. in 2022 all Frankston line seats followed the statewide trend and recorded 2PP swings against Labor. The 2PP swing against Labor in Mordialloc (5.2%) was actually much larger than the statewide average (2.3%). I do agree that Labor’s vote will hold up well in Frankston line seats, but there’s nothing to suggest that these seats will buck the statewide trend and swing TOWARDS Labor, especially considering that the Liberal Party will at least do some campaigning in these seats. There will be no strong non-major party contender in these seats that could sufficiently disrupt a 2PP swing against Labor, because One Nation won’t do well in these seats. The Labor government investing in resources in these seats or a good local member can and probably will help Labor hold all these seats, but there will need to be very dramatic demographic changes or local-specific factors that could cause people to turn away from the Liberal Party in large numbers for these seats to buck the statewide trend and record a 2PP swing TO Labor.

I think every seat will swing away from Labor on both 2PP and primary vote, but the sandbelt seats will holds up pretty well and swing below average so their 8%+ margins should all be safe.

All will likely become marginal seats on <5% margins though.

The Liberals have pre-selected a currently serving senior policeman Paul O’Halloran who attracted some media attention this weekend and was campaigning alongside Jess Wilson. Kos Samaras has maintained for the last few months that Labor is holding ground ok at the ‘northern end of the Frankston Line’ which would make this area along with Bentleigh outliers to the current statewide trend with more affluent white voters tending to swing towards the Coalition fairly heavily. Whether the Liberals have repaired relations with Asian migrant communities will be put to the test in the Keysborough portion of the seat too.

Issues around the Labor government’s role in Kingston Council goings-on and heritage issues around Mentone could potentially be leveraged as campaign issues but it sounds like the Liberals will try to turn this contest into a referendum on crime

Keyborough is a bit different when comparing with Asian communities in the Eastern Suburbs like Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Ringwood as it also includes a strong Ethnic Vietnamese and Khmer community and i dont think the Hawkish stance of the Liberals on China would have had such an impact on those communities as those in the Eastern suburbs. Also the Keysbrough area will be leaast affluent (although more affluent than Greater Dandenong) so i am not sure how many of these Asians even voted Liberal in 2010 and 2014 unlike more affluent white communities along the Coast.

Ben
The Geography description for Mordialloc is actually Wendouree. Just letting you know.

@Nimalan, please note this seat only contains the Southern parts of Keysborough where there are new housing estates and is quite affluent similar Point Cook and there is a large Mainland Chinese and South Asian Community alongside the large Vietnamese and Khmer community (many in both communities are actually ethnically or partially Chinese themselves which explains why Chinese is the top nominated ancestry) unlike the Northern Parts of Keysborough (which isn’t in the seat) which is post-war working class.

https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/212041566

Good point Marh
There a lot of big housese here and i think many Indochinese especially 2nd Generation who became more affluent built large houses here. The Dingley Bypass acts as a social divide.

So i agree Keysbrough is more divided suburb in terms of SES. Even Dandenong North is divided north of Monash is more middle class i.e Rosewood Downs both but area tends to be more Anglo though.

That’s an interesting point too – Kos Samaras noted that Labor’s diversity advantage was largely limited to 1st generation migrants according to his research

@ Maxim
With respect to Muslims i think it maybe Slightly diferent a large % in Northern suburbs are second and third generation while i think they are frustrated with they will not choose right wing parties most likely VS/Greens. In the South East Muslims are often Afghan and more recent.
In the Eastern Suburbs where there is a large Chinese community, there will be more second generation ones as it is an earlier wave of immigration.
The Growth areas including Point Cook have more first generation immigrants and South Asians tend to more recent.

@Maxim, I wonder if that 2nd to 3rd generation migrants are made up of Southern and Eastern Europeans which are significant in many of the Traditional Labor Working Class areas where One Nation could do well in Western and Northern Melbourne?

It’s often suggested here and elsewhere that working class Southern and Eastern European migrants and their descendants are swinging to One Nation. Is there any evidence of this or is it purely anecdotal?

@Adam

Kos Samaras has pointed this out a number of times in his research. Also a lot of right wing commentators such as Drew Pavlou, Pete Zouglas, George Alexander Mamalais, Steve Christou are examples of that as well.I have grown up in an area with a large Greek community and one thing that i have observed is that across educational divides etc is that religion is persistaning. If you look at census Eastern Orthodoxy is rising in Australia despite little immigration these days. I think the shift is happening among second and third generations not first generations as they have been accepted by Anglos. Even in your seat of Northcote which has a large Greek community while i dont expect a swing to ONP i would say a Greek who lives in your street is more likely to go to Church and have more socially conservatives views than Anglos. There is a cultural difference as the extend family and family honour is more important compared to more individualistic culture of the Anglosphere. The seats which has the biggest shift from Republic to Voice were Scullin, Gorton and Menzies all have large Southern and Eastern European communities and some are affluent.

@Nimalan, it would interesting to see if Pauline Hanson explanation of ‘monoculture’ where she said it is immoral to speak another language other than English at home and celebrating homeland culture might had turned off some Eastern and Southern European Voters?