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Liberal hold, I don’t see Labor pealing this off especially after two back to back landslides.
Labor has not won a Southern Knox seat since they lost Wantirna (the preceding seat) in 1992. This area is now more established and wealthier than the 1980. However, Labor has a better chance to win this than Kew, Brighton, Sandringham or Morwell.
Rowville has been trending Labor after 2010. Rowville’s predecessors Scoresby and Wantirna used to be solidly Liberal. The last time Kim Wells had a margin <4% was as a result of the 2002 Labor landslide.
In 2002 much of this area was still housing estates and young families so the 2022 results was pretty good for Labor. Wantirna was held during the Cain/Kirner years by Labor so was not solid liberal at that time.
If the Liberal were in trouble here then something would have seriously gone wrong.
Kim Wells has got to go. The Libs need new talent in a seat like this.
Agree entirely with Dan M. He is 67, been in parliament since 1992, dead wood. Time to be given the tap on the shoulder.
Probably best to wait for a good year.
Kim Wells is calling it quits and won’t recontest the next election.
Libs have a great opportunity to pick good quality candidates with so many older members retiring. Benambra, Croydon, Malvern now Rowville. All should be women .
Kim Wells retirement is about time. The Libs do need to pick good candidates as they have to hold all of these seats. They need to look at candidates with ministerial potential as they are desperately short of talent. They might not need all be women but at least two should be.
When are they going to give Bev Macarthur the shove?
Will be interesting to see what personal vote Kim Wells has here and if Labor will run the same candidate here again.
I believe on federal numbers Labor would narrowly hold this as well, again I still think that its extremely unlikely Labor would pick this up.
I know it is still early but so far, 5 MPs have announcement their retirement and all of them are Lib or Nat MPs. There needs to be some generational change.