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Liberal hold, I don’t see Labor pealing this off especially after two back to back landslides.
Labor has not won a Southern Knox seat since they lost Wantirna (the preceding seat) in 1992. This area is now more established and wealthier than the 1980. However, Labor has a better chance to win this than Kew, Brighton, Sandringham or Morwell.
Rowville has been trending Labor after 2010. Rowville’s predecessors Scoresby and Wantirna used to be solidly Liberal. The last time Kim Wells had a margin <4% was as a result of the 2002 Labor landslide.
In 2002 much of this area was still housing estates and young families so the 2022 results was pretty good for Labor. Wantirna was held during the Cain/Kirner years by Labor so was not solid liberal at that time.
If the Liberal were in trouble here then something would have seriously gone wrong.
Kim Wells has got to go. The Libs need new talent in a seat like this.
Agree entirely with Dan M. He is 67, been in parliament since 1992, dead wood. Time to be given the tap on the shoulder.
Probably best to wait for a good year.
Kim Wells is calling it quits and won’t recontest the next election.
Libs have a great opportunity to pick good quality candidates with so many older members retiring. Benambra, Croydon, Malvern now Rowville. All should be women .
Kim Wells retirement is about time. The Libs do need to pick good candidates as they have to hold all of these seats. They need to look at candidates with ministerial potential as they are desperately short of talent. They might not need all be women but at least two should be.
When are they going to give Bev Macarthur the shove?
Will be interesting to see what personal vote Kim Wells has here and if Labor will run the same candidate here again.
I believe on federal numbers Labor would narrowly hold this as well, again I still think that its extremely unlikely Labor would pick this up.
I know it is still early but so far, 5 MPs have announcement their retirement and all of them are Lib or Nat MPs. There needs to be some generational change.
This seat is increasingly becoming what nearby Glen Waverley looks like right now in terms of demographics, affluence and voting patterns.
I agree Dan M it is become more educated and Diverse sometimes i feel it is a cheaper version of Manningham. I still think it is a strech for Labor to win at a good election like 2018/2022 but easier to win than Morwell which is a rust belt seat.
Max Williams the former vice president for the Victorian Liberals is to replace Kim Wells. I am personally surprised as I would’ve thought they would preselect someone more high profile.
@SpaceFish Maybe if this seat was up for grabs, but I don’t think there’s any way the Liberals don’t win it
It’s managed to stay in Liberal hands despite two consecutive bad elections for them.
While having a high profile is a must, the Liberals ought to hope Williams has ministerial potential. Not really much of a point in handing a safe-ish seat to a complacent backbencher.
^isn’t a must
I’m suggesting Labor has a remote shot of winning here at all, I just thought that such a historically reliably Liberal seat would put someone who could be a minster or future leader.
not”
Rowville will likely fall the next time Labor gets a 54%+ 2PP result IMO, so maybe they Liberals should be looking elsewhere for a generational aspirant type candidate
@ SpaceFish
I think it is probably the case that Knox reached peak Liberal back in the 2010s as the area was ageing and more homes were being paid off. After the 2019 election, Peta Credlin said that future leaders would come from seats like Aston not Kooyong. Obviously that now hard when Labor as a sitting MP in Aston. I will concede Rowville is harder to win than Aston as it has the strongest Liberal parts of Knox. I think Labor can win in future but will be hard maybe more than 58% TPP so 2002/2018 type result. I think the diversification of the area mean it is increasingly like Glen Waverley in terms of demographics albeit without PT. I think Evelyn is now a stronger seat and better suited for a leadership seat. Apart from that i think it will either rural seats or more affluent seats for Liberal leaders. Even Berwick is not super strong and could fall to Labor when they get another landslide like 2002/2018.
While I think Labor has a chance of holding onto Bayswater I still think this seat is still too far out of reach for Labor with a lot of the seat very established and not seeing significant amount of development in comparison to Bayswater. I think for the immediate term Liberals should be able to hold on here and Labor might get close but that’s as good as they’ll get for now unless there is another disastrous election outcome and Labor somehow increases its majority.
@ SpaceFish
I dont think any one posting here on this thread seriously think that Rowville will fall to Labor in 2026. I dont think that is the point. I also accept your point that Rowville being safeish means that it is usually reserved for people with talent who can join the Front bench. I think what Maxim, Dan M and myself are alluding to is that it probably is not going to be the next Brighton, Malvern or Kew as many people including myself may have thought in 2019, some would have said Rowville is a new Cronulla 6 years ago, it is probably going to resembe a seat like Glen Waverley a Liberal leaning seat but not like the Inner East etc. It does not need to snow in Hell before Labor wins Rowvile. Also i think the culture of the Liberal party if that many of the leaders will come from either affluent upper class seats or rural seats and less likely from Middle Australia seats. It is possible that a seat like Narracan/Benembra may produce a Liberal leader.
Max Williams is a longterm local and well known in the Rowville community. Certainly has ministerial potential. Not a woman but still a decent choice for the Blue Ribbon seat.