ALP 10.2%
Incumbent MP
Meng Heang Tak, since 2018.
Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Clarinda covers the suburbs of Clarinda, Clayton South, Heatherton, Springvale South and parts of Oakleigh South. Clarinda covers the northern end of the Kingston council area and a small part of the Greater Dandenong council area.
History
The seat of Clayton was renamed Clarinda in 2014.
Clayton was first created for the 1985 election, and it has always been won by the ALP.
Gerard Vaughan won the seat in 1985, he had previously held the seat of Glenhuntly since 1979. Vaughan held the seat until 1996.
In 1996, Clayton was won by Hong Lim, also of the ALP. Lim held the seat until 2018, serving as member for Clarinda from 2014.
In 2018, Clarinda was won by Labor candidate Meng Heang Tak. Heang Tak was re-elected in 2022.
- Conor Boyd-Eedle (Greens)
- Kit Message (Victorian Socialists)
- Meng Heang Tak (Labor)
Assessment
Labor are likely favourites here but large swings could produce an unpredictable result here. This seat is unlikely to be a strong area for One Nation but we don’t have a lot of information.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Meng Heang Tak | Labor | 18,441 | 45.5 | -9.1 |
| Anthony Richardson | Liberal | 11,593 | 28.6 | +1.0 |
| Jessamine Moffett | Greens | 3,227 | 8.0 | +0.9 |
| Caroline White | Independent | 3,167 | 7.8 | +7.8 |
| Karen Hastings | Family First | 1,215 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Hung Vo | Independent | 1,122 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| Sue Litchfield | Animal Justice | 1,005 | 2.5 | +0.3 |
| Steve Wolfe | Freedom Party | 794 | 2.0 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 2,477 | 5.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Meng Heang Tak | Labor | 24,416 | 60.2 | -4.7 |
| Anthony Richardson | Liberal | 16,148 | 39.8 | +4.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.1% in the west to 62.8% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 61.8 | 6,376 | 15.7 |
| North | 62.8 | 4,443 | 10.9 |
| West | 55.1 | 4,145 | 10.2 |
| Pre-poll | 60.2 | 18,420 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 61.1 | 7,337 | 18.0 |
Election results in Clarinda at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Greater Dandenong council part of this seat is what helps Labor hold on here otherwise this seat would be a lot more competitive.
@ SpaceFish as i pointed out in the 2022 Clarinda thread
The Dingley bypass is a major social divide here. Clayton South/Clarinda while in Kingston Council are quite industrial and actually on the Dandenong train line.
Big east Asian population around Clarinda and Clayton precincts. Fairly middle-class but very diverse (coming from a friend whose family lives here). Labor hold.
@Nimalan,
Yes a lot of older housing estates and less diverse.
Is trouble brewing here for Labor? Sounds like there is some pushback to a new development at Dingley Village and resentment over state appointed council monitors overstaying their welcome at Kingston Council. Could be a sleeper if the Libs end up having a good night but might also just be an angry minority (who weren’t ever Labor voters) making a fuss
I suspect swings maybe big around Dingley which is older Whiter so the two Dingley booths maybe 60% TPP for Libs which is reasonable. However, North of the Dingley Bypass is not culturally the Sandbelt rather it is the SE Manufacturing belt with ethnic working class suburbs and a totally different commmunity of interest where i think swings will be minimal.
Labor is most popular along Cranbourne/Pakenha, rail corridor. Ideally, Libs would wish Dingley was in Moridicallic and not Keysborough