To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Labor hold, with population growth from Skye and having parts of Lynbrook should benefit Labor here.
This seat was trending Liberal as the seat beachside suburbs have become wealthier. However, as the Liberals have become more socially conservative it has not benefited from the gentrification. In 2010 and 2014 this seat was more Pro-Liberal than the state as a whole. Labor has also done a lot for this seat in terms of Level crossings, new stations and Metro Tunnel. The current boundaries are also more Pro-Labor than 2010 when it had a lot of beachfront now it goes more inland.
Nimalan,
Agree, I think the Liberals only chance to win this back is to move back to the centre where Ted Baillieu was.
@ SpaceFish
Agree this seat is very irreligious and Issacs one of the few seats were adjusted to 2022 boundaries the Voice got a better result than the Republic in 1922 showing an area that increased affluence has made the seat more socially progressive. It is more Teal (Economic Centre, Socially Progessive than DLP (Economically Left, Socially Right) if you think in those terms.
Nimalan,
Yes I agree with that and that’s exactly why the Liberals can’t cut through here in the party’s current form.
I heard the reason why State Liberals won the Frankston Line Seats in 2010 and by extension a narrow majority government was that the Frankston Line was unreliable and State Libs at the time campaigned about it. This was also why Labor only won the Frankston Line Seats narrowly in 2014 and by extension a narrow majority government. I think if Frankston Line wasn’t an issue in 2010, it might have been a situation where Labor won the state election even though Libs led in the State TPP.
The beachside suburbs are becoming teal-ish. The yes vote at the voice referendum and Labor 2PP at the 2025 federal election were higher by the water in Carrum and Seaford than inland.
@ Marh
The Frankston line had issue in 2010. However, the Frankston line being Bayside has become more desirable. They also dont have much ethnic diversity except Jews and Greeks in parts of the sandbelt. Labor did not expect to loose the Frankton line seats in 2010 they expected to be relected with a narrow majority. They expected to loose Mount Waverly, Mitcham, Forest Hill, Gembrook etc. The Frankton line are often a snap shot of middle Australia.
Cheltenham, Morabbin are among the most average suburbs in Australia. Nunawading is also on the list so makes sense they are bellwether suburbs.
https://www.id.com.au/insights/articles/what-is-australias-most-typical-suburb/
Yeah the then Premier John Brumby even admitted publicly that their polling had them ahead in Carrum.