Carrum – Victoria 2026

Labor hold, with population growth from Skye and having parts of Lynbrook should benefit Labor here.

This seat was trending Liberal as the seat beachside suburbs have become wealthier. However, as the Liberals have become more socially conservative it has not benefited from the gentrification. In 2010 and 2014 this seat was more Pro-Liberal than the state as a whole. Labor has also done a lot for this seat in terms of Level crossings, new stations and Metro Tunnel. The current boundaries are also more Pro-Labor than 2010 when it had a lot of beachfront now it goes more inland.

Nimalan,
Agree, I think the Liberals only chance to win this back is to move back to the centre where Ted Baillieu was.

@ SpaceFish
Agree this seat is very irreligious and Issacs one of the few seats were adjusted to 2022 boundaries the Voice got a better result than the Republic in 1922 showing an area that increased affluence has made the seat more socially progressive. It is more Teal (Economic Centre, Socially Progessive than DLP (Economically Left, Socially Right) if you think in those terms.

Nimalan,
Yes I agree with that and that’s exactly why the Liberals can’t cut through here in the party’s current form.

I heard the reason why State Liberals won the Frankston Line Seats in 2010 and by extension a narrow majority government was that the Frankston Line was unreliable and State Libs at the time campaigned about it. This was also why Labor only won the Frankston Line Seats narrowly in 2014 and by extension a narrow majority government. I think if Frankston Line wasn’t an issue in 2010, it might have been a situation where Labor won the state election even though Libs led in the State TPP.

The beachside suburbs are becoming teal-ish. The yes vote at the voice referendum and Labor 2PP at the 2025 federal election were higher by the water in Carrum and Seaford than inland.

@ Marh
The Frankston line had issue in 2010. However, the Frankston line being Bayside has become more desirable. They also dont have much ethnic diversity except Jews and Greeks in parts of the sandbelt. Labor did not expect to loose the Frankton line seats in 2010 they expected to be relected with a narrow majority. They expected to loose Mount Waverly, Mitcham, Forest Hill, Gembrook etc. The Frankton line are often a snap shot of middle Australia.
Cheltenham, Morabbin are among the most average suburbs in Australia. Nunawading is also on the list so makes sense they are bellwether suburbs.

https://www.id.com.au/insights/articles/what-is-australias-most-typical-suburb/

Yeah the then Premier John Brumby even admitted publicly that their polling had them ahead in Carrum.

Looking at this closely I actually think it may swing more than expected eventhough i feel Labor will just hold on. The percent with University degrees is less than average at 20% and it is very Anglo. While the focus has been on the increasingly progressive tealish suburbs along the Frankston line, inland it is a very different story and i think ONP can do well in Carrum Downs/Skye, a big swing to Libs in Paterson Lakes. The small part of the seat in Casey council-Lyndhurst is demographiclaly different as it is both CALD and educated.

The high Labor vote and relatively low Green vote also suggests the sort of working class voter that is seemingly liable to moving away from Labor. The Voice results in the Carrum Downs area also suggest the strong potential for both Liberal-ONP movement but also ALP-ONP.

The Frankston line could end up diverging in terms of its voting habits with the southern half swinging more sharply with a surging ONP vote whereas the northern part will likely see an ALP vs LIB contest that you’d probably back Labor to win at this stage

This seat has dreadful boundaries along with Mordialloc to the north with a highly CALD suburb tacked on to the east in both cases.

The potential for a new seat in the Clyde area as well as the removal of either a middle SE seat like Mulgrave or an inner southern seat like Prahran should hopefully allow the map drawers to line up the COI in ways that make a lot more sense for 2030

There was an article in the AFR today that had a list of 27 seats identified as ‘at risk” by Labor, as well as the 9 they had supposedly ‘written off’ and this seat was not on either list, while all other 3 sandbelt seats were on the at risk list.

The at risk seats also included seats that are seemingly as safe as Clarinda, Mulgrave, St Albans.

Interesting that Sonya Kilkenny put her hand up for the top job, would’ve been interesting to have a premier from a seat that helped decide who won government in 1999, 2010 & 2014.

I suspect it maybe the case that Sandbelt seats MPs were loyal to the end and angry about what happened to Jacinta Allan. It may have been the case that Western and Northern suburbs as well as Regional MPs wanted shift the focus away from Sandbelt and claybelt. It maybe the case Ben Carroll is willing to sacrifice these areas to hold on to working class areas

Yes in fact it was the Sandbelt MPs who walked with Jacinta Allan into the caucus room so they were the most loyal this includes Sonia Kilkenny, Tim Richardson and Nick Staikos along with Steve Dimopolous and Lily D’Ambraosio

@Nimalan, I think it would all depends on the performance of Ben Carroll. Given the sandbelt voted Liberals in 2010 and was close in 2014 so area is Progressive but economic centrist rather than left-wing progressive. It does make me think if Labor or other progressives could campaign to portray Jess Wilson as another ‘fake moderate’ like Malcolm Turnbull and Ted Baillieu?

@ Marh
Listenting to Ben Carroll on his first address he mentioned he grew up in the North West it may be a sign that he wants to sandbag a seat like Sydenham, Werribeee etc. I do agree this area is socially progressive but economically centirst. I feel Ben Carroll maybe closer a DLP style leader- a Catholic in the most Catholic seat in the state and he may not emphasise social progressivism to the same extent

@Nimalan, I don’t think Ben Carroll is anything close to DLP as he supports Gay Marriage and Euthanasia so he is probably more of a secular Catholic. I do agree he would likely less empathize on socially progressive issues so rather I think he is more like Bracks/Brumby.

@ Marh
Maybe DLP is the too big of a term but he is probably more right wing than most of the current Victorian Labor party. I still think there are some Conservative Labor MPs even still these days such as Deborah O’Neil. Raff Ciccione, Don Farrell. Shayne Neumann.
Peter Khalil maybe more right wing if he had a better seat and not MP for Wills
It maybe the case that Ben Carroll wants to present himself as no nonsense style even if he feels a bit more Wooden than warm. Peter Malinuakas and Chris Minns are also more Centrist so maybe Ben Caroll is more like then than Daniel Andrews or Jacinta Allan.