ALP 9.0%
Incumbent MP
Pauline Richards, since 2018.
Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North and Devon Meadows. The entire electorate is contained within the City of Casey.
History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.
Prior to the 2002 election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.
Perera held the seat from 2002 until his retirement in 2018. He was succeeded by Labor candidate Pauline Richards. Richards was re-elected in 2022.
- Annalise Mercer (Greens)
- Pauline Richards (Labor)
- Reem Yunis (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
This would typically be seen as a safe Labor seat but they could face a dark horse threat from Liberal or One Nation.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pauline Richards | Labor | 18,853 | 46.2 | -2.5 |
| Jagdeep Singh | Liberal | 11,230 | 27.5 | -6.9 |
| Kiran Vempati | Greens | 2,282 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Bradley Harvey | Family First | 2,249 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Chris Norton | Democratic Labour | 2,044 | 5.0 | +3.4 |
| Gerardine Frances Hansen | Freedom Party | 1,790 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Peter Bernard Philpott | Hinch’s Justice | 1,126 | 2.8 | -1.9 |
| Gwynne Brennan | Animal Justice | 1,006 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Ravi Ragupathy | Independent | 242 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 3,234 | 7.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pauline Richards | Labor | 24,073 | 59.0 | -0.3 |
| Jagdeep Singh | Liberal | 16,749 | 41.0 | +0.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.6% in the south-west to 63.7% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 61.8 | 5,864 | 14.3 |
| South-West | 59.6 | 4,667 | 11.4 |
| North | 63.7 | 1,713 | 4.2 |
| Pre-poll | 57.4 | 22,455 | 54.8 |
| Other votes | 60.5 | 6,309 | 15.4 |
Election results in Cranbourne at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
This seat got a lot of talk and barely moved however, Cranbourne has a history of swinging so if the Liberal were to have a good night they could peal this seat off.
Labor got a big swing at the Federal election here. I dont think there is the same Level of Anger in South East Red Wall (Narre Warrens, Cranbourne). Service delivery better managed. Metro Tunnel/Removal all level crossings will help here. Howeve, Clyde rail is an outstanding issue
It’s another seat though that at the federal election swung pretty hard to Labor.
While the Victorian Labor will not do anywhere near as well as Federal Labor, I still feel like areas that had an above-average swing towards Labor in May are probably not going to be the ones that have the largest swings away from them in 2026.
A lot of areas in the north/west barely swung in May, or some even had small swings against the grain to the Liberals, and those sorts of areas are where I would expect a significant swing to the Liberals next year.
But if an area swung +5 to Labor in May, I don’t expect that it’ll be swinging to the tune of -10 from them next year, that’d be a 15 point difference between federal & state.
Labor has invested a lot into the outer southeast (compared to the north & west) so I think they will hold up ok. I predict small to moderate swings to the Liberals across the Narre Warrens & Cranbourne.