ALP 8.7%
Incumbent MP
Belinda Wilson, since 2022.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers Endeavour Hills, Hallam, Narre Warren and Narre Warren North, as well as parts of Harkaway. The electorate covers north-eastern parts of the City of Casey.
History
Narre Warren North was created in 2002 as a notional Liberal seat.
It was won at that year’s election by the ALP’s Luke Donnellan, who held the seat for the next twenty years.
Donnellan retired in 2022, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Belinda Wilson.
- Hayley Perry (Greens)
- Belinda Wilson (Labor)
Assessment
One Nation could pose a threat here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Belinda Wilson | Labor | 19,350 | 46.8 | -4.4 |
| Timothy Dragan | Liberal | 11,291 | 27.3 | -8.1 |
| Laura McLean | Greens | 2,809 | 6.8 | +0.6 |
| Christine Elkins | Family First | 1,530 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Stephen Matulec | Liberal Democrats | 1,325 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Craig Parker | Freedom Party | 1,218 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Andrew Zmegac | Democratic Labour | 1,191 | 2.9 | -1.1 |
| Sheree Gardner | Animal Justice | 978 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Stephen Capon | Independent | 906 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Monique Ruyter | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 772 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 3,602 | 8.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Belinda Wilson | Labor | 24,302 | 58.7 | -1.7 |
| Timothy Dragan | Liberal | 17,068 | 41.3 | +1.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.1% in the east to 62% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 61.5 | 7,873 | 19.0 |
| East | 58.1 | 5,186 | 12.5 |
| South | 62.0 | 3,034 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 58.6 | 18,692 | 45.0 |
| Other votes | 57.6 | 6,737 | 16.2 |
Election results in Narre Warren North at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
I believe the Liberal candidate here was dud and it hurt them here, if the Liberal want to win this seat they need to fix their preselection process.
@ SpaceFish
Look at Trents comments in the Cranbourne thread i think he is 100% correct
On a similar note to my comment in the Cranbourne thread too, the sandbelt is another area that swung quite aggressively to Labor in May, so I can’t see those >8% margins being wiped out in Mordialloc, Carrum or Frankston either.
I’m guessing that most of the middle-to-outer southeast suburbs will have pretty “status quo” results in 2026 with very minimal swings. That applies to everywhere from Oakleigh & Bentleigh, to Clarinda & Mulgrave, the sandbelt seats of Mordialloc, Carrum & Frankston, all the way out to the Narre Warrens & Cranbourne.
The Liberals aren’t going to gain any seats in that region at all given every margin is over 8%, and all had above average swings to Labor in May indicating it’s not where the Labor brand is unpopular.
* All except Bentleigh (in Goldstein) had above average swings to Labor, but Bentleigh has a very popular local MP who I think will have a strong incumbency advantage, and Goldstein wasn’t an ALP v LIB contest.
The Narre Warrens and Cranbourne get hyped every election even last state election all the commentary predicated huge swings to Libs and that this will be their new heartland. I remember Tim Smith once Cranbourne will replace Kew as the new heartland. In a nutshell there is no sense of neglect in this seat. I concede it more socially conservative than the Sandbelt but i dont think Trans issues is enough to flip it.