Incumbent MLCs
- Enver Erdogan (Labor), since 2019
- Anasina Gray-Barberio (Greens), since 20241
- Evan Mulholland (Liberal), since 2022
- Adem Somyurek (Independent), since 20062
- Sheena Watt (Labor), since 2020
1Anasina Gray-Barberio replaced Samantha Ratnam in November 2024 following Ratnam’s resignation.
2Adem Somyurek resigned from the Democratic Labour Party in March 2024.
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Broadmeadows | ALP 15.5% | Kalkallo | ALP 16.5% | Preston | ALP 2.1% vs GRN |
| Brunswick | GRN 13.7% vs ALP | Melbourne | GRN 10.2% vs ALP | Richmond | GRN 7.3% vs ALP |
| Essendon | ALP 12.5% | Northcote | ALP 0.2% vs GRN | Thomastown | ALP 15.8% |
| Greenvale | ALP 7.1% | Pascoe Vale | ALP 2.0% vs GRN |
Northern Metropolitan covers northern parts of the Melbourne urban area, stretching from the Melbourne CBD in the south, all the way out to Wallan. The region is a narrow strip stretching on a northern axis from the city centre.
Eight out of eleven seats are held by Labor, with three held by the Greens.
In addition to three Greens seats, there are three Labor-Greens marginals. There are only five classic Labor-Liberal seats in this region.
History
The Northern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
At the first election in 2006, Labor won three seats, while the Liberal Party and the Greens win one seat each. In 2010, the Liberal Party won a second seat off Labor.
That second Liberal seat fell to Fiona Patten of the Sex Party (now Reason) in 2014.
The 2018 election produced a status quo result. Labor retained two seats, with the Liberal Party, Greens and Reason each retaining one seat.
Reason’s Fiona Patten lost her seat in 2022 to Democratic Labour Party candidate Adem Somyurek, who had been a Labor MLC since 2006, but had left the party during the previous term.
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 151,062 | 33.4 | -9.2 | 2.003 |
| Liberal | 85,359 | 18.9 | +2.4 | 1.132 |
| Greens | 84,127 | 18.6 | +1.9 | 1.116 |
| Democratic Labour | 21,684 | 4.8 | +0.6 | 0.288 |
| Victorian Socialists | 21,305 | 4.7 | +0.5 | 0.283 |
| Reason | 16,322 | 3.6 | +0.2 | 0.216 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 13,822 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 0.183 |
| Family First | 11,646 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 0.154 |
| Animal Justice | 6,320 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 0.084 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5,612 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0.074 |
| United Australia | 5,601 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.074 |
| Freedom Party | 4,937 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.065 |
| Hinch’s Justice | 4,773 | 1.1 | -1.0 | 0.063 |
| One Nation | 4,251 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.056 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,470 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.046 |
| Sack Dan Andrews | 2,711 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.036 |
| Others | 9,428 | 2.1 | 0.125 | |
| Informal | 17,223 | 3.7 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor retained two seats and the Liberal Party and the Greens each retained one. The second Labor candidate Enver Erdogan did not reach a quota until quite late in the count.
Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:
- Enver Erdogan (ALP) – 0.986
- Adem Somyurek (DLP) – 0.547
- Jerome Small (SOC) – 0.290
- Fiona Patten (REAS) – 0.232
- Imad Hirmiz (FF) – 0.215
- Andrew Hales (LGC) – 0.204
- Owen Guest (LIB) – 0.151
- Kelly Moran (UAP) – 0.141
- Esther Kennedy (GRN) – 0.112
- Leah Horsfall (AJP) – 0.091
Animal Justice preferences strongly flowed to the Victorian Socialists:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.988
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.548
- Small (SOC) – 0.361
- Patten (REAS) – 0.236
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.216
- Hales (LGC) – 0.206
- Guest (LIB) – 0.152
- Moran (UAP) – 0.141
- Kennedy (GRN) – 0.117
Greens preferences mostly flowed to Reason:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.999
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.549
- Small (SOC) – 0.371
- Patten (REAS) – 0.308
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.216
- Hales (LGC) – 0.209
- Guest (LIB) – 0.152
- Moran (UAP) – 0.141
UAP preferences mostly split between the Liberal and Family First candidates.
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.9998
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.551
- Small (SOC) – 0.371
- Patten (REAS) – 0.308
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.281
- Hales (LGC) – 0.210
- Guest (LIB) – 0.208
Liberal preferences flowed strongly to the DLP, and also Family First, pushing Erdogan just over quota:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 1.001
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.674
- Small (SOC) – 0.372
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.337
- Patten (REAS) – 0.310
- Hales (LGC) – 0.211
Legalise Cannabis preferences almost entirely flowed to Reason:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.675
- Patten (REAS) – 0.496
- Small (SOC) – 0.378
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.338
Family First preferences flowed strongly to the DLP, pushing Somyurek to a position just short of a majority:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.968
- Patten (REAS) – 0.497
- Small (SOC) – 0.380
Most Socialist preferences flowed to Reason, but it was not enough to close the gap. Somyurek won by 0.16 quotas:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.973
- Patten (REAS) – 0.816
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in Northern Metropolitan. They came first in eight out of eleven electorates. The Greens came first in the three southern electorates which they won.
The Greens came second in Pascoe Vale and Northcote ahead of the Liberal Party, but the other six seats had the Liberal Party in second place.
The Labor vote was highest in Thomastown, Kalkallo and Broadmeadows. The Labor vote was lowest in Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond.
The Liberal vote was highest in Essendon and Greenvale, and lowest in Brunswick and Northcote.
The Greens vote was highest in Brunswick.
Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Metropolitan region