Incumbent MLCs
- Enver Erdogan (Labor), since 2019
- Anasina Gray-Barberio (Greens), since 20241
- Evan Mulholland (Liberal), since 2022
- Adem Somyurek (Independent), since 20062
- Sheena Watt (Labor), since 2020
1Anasina Gray-Barberio replaced Samantha Ratnam in November 2024 following Ratnam’s resignation.
2Adem Somyurek resigned from the Democratic Labour Party in March 2024.
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Broadmeadows | ALP 15.5% | Kalkallo | ALP 16.5% | Preston | ALP 2.1% vs GRN |
| Brunswick | GRN 13.7% vs ALP | Melbourne | GRN 10.2% vs ALP | Richmond | GRN 7.3% vs ALP |
| Essendon | ALP 12.5% | Northcote | ALP 0.2% vs GRN | Thomastown | ALP 15.8% |
| Greenvale | ALP 7.1% | Pascoe Vale | ALP 2.0% vs GRN |
Northern Metropolitan covers northern parts of the Melbourne urban area, stretching from the Melbourne CBD in the south, all the way out to Wallan. The region is a narrow strip stretching on a northern axis from the city centre.
Eight out of eleven seats are held by Labor, with three held by the Greens.
In addition to three Greens seats, there are three Labor-Greens marginals. There are only five classic Labor-Liberal seats in this region.
History
The Northern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
At the first election in 2006, Labor won three seats, while the Liberal Party and the Greens win one seat each. In 2010, the Liberal Party won a second seat off Labor.
That second Liberal seat fell to Fiona Patten of the Sex Party (now Reason) in 2014.
The 2018 election produced a status quo result. Labor retained two seats, with the Liberal Party, Greens and Reason each retaining one seat.
Reason’s Fiona Patten lost her seat in 2022 to Democratic Labour Party candidate Adem Somyurek, who had been a Labor MLC since 2006, but had left the party during the previous term.
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 151,062 | 33.4 | -9.2 | 2.003 |
| Liberal | 85,359 | 18.9 | +2.4 | 1.132 |
| Greens | 84,127 | 18.6 | +1.9 | 1.116 |
| Democratic Labour | 21,684 | 4.8 | +0.6 | 0.288 |
| Victorian Socialists | 21,305 | 4.7 | +0.5 | 0.283 |
| Reason | 16,322 | 3.6 | +0.2 | 0.216 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 13,822 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 0.183 |
| Family First | 11,646 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 0.154 |
| Animal Justice | 6,320 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 0.084 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5,612 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0.074 |
| United Australia | 5,601 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.074 |
| Freedom Party | 4,937 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.065 |
| Hinch’s Justice | 4,773 | 1.1 | -1.0 | 0.063 |
| One Nation | 4,251 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.056 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,470 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.046 |
| Sack Dan Andrews | 2,711 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.036 |
| Others | 9,428 | 2.1 | 0.125 | |
| Informal | 17,223 | 3.7 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor retained two seats and the Liberal Party and the Greens each retained one. The second Labor candidate Enver Erdogan did not reach a quota until quite late in the count.
Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:
- Enver Erdogan (ALP) – 0.986
- Adem Somyurek (DLP) – 0.547
- Jerome Small (SOC) – 0.290
- Fiona Patten (REAS) – 0.232
- Imad Hirmiz (FF) – 0.215
- Andrew Hales (LGC) – 0.204
- Owen Guest (LIB) – 0.151
- Kelly Moran (UAP) – 0.141
- Esther Kennedy (GRN) – 0.112
- Leah Horsfall (AJP) – 0.091
Animal Justice preferences strongly flowed to the Victorian Socialists:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.988
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.548
- Small (SOC) – 0.361
- Patten (REAS) – 0.236
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.216
- Hales (LGC) – 0.206
- Guest (LIB) – 0.152
- Moran (UAP) – 0.141
- Kennedy (GRN) – 0.117
Greens preferences mostly flowed to Reason:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.999
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.549
- Small (SOC) – 0.371
- Patten (REAS) – 0.308
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.216
- Hales (LGC) – 0.209
- Guest (LIB) – 0.152
- Moran (UAP) – 0.141
UAP preferences mostly split between the Liberal and Family First candidates.
- Erdogan (ALP) – 0.9998
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.551
- Small (SOC) – 0.371
- Patten (REAS) – 0.308
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.281
- Hales (LGC) – 0.210
- Guest (LIB) – 0.208
Liberal preferences flowed strongly to the DLP, and also Family First, pushing Erdogan just over quota:
- Erdogan (ALP) – 1.001
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.674
- Small (SOC) – 0.372
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.337
- Patten (REAS) – 0.310
- Hales (LGC) – 0.211
Legalise Cannabis preferences almost entirely flowed to Reason:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.675
- Patten (REAS) – 0.496
- Small (SOC) – 0.378
- Hirmiz (FF) – 0.338
Family First preferences flowed strongly to the DLP, pushing Somyurek to a position just short of a majority:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.968
- Patten (REAS) – 0.497
- Small (SOC) – 0.380
Most Socialist preferences flowed to Reason, but it was not enough to close the gap. Somyurek won by 0.16 quotas:
- Somyurek (DLP) – 0.973
- Patten (REAS) – 0.816
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in Northern Metropolitan. They came first in eight out of eleven electorates. The Greens came first in the three southern electorates which they won.
The Greens came second in Pascoe Vale and Northcote ahead of the Liberal Party, but the other six seats had the Liberal Party in second place.
The Labor vote was highest in Thomastown, Kalkallo and Broadmeadows. The Labor vote was lowest in Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond.
The Liberal vote was highest in Essendon and Greenvale, and lowest in Brunswick and Northcote.
The Greens vote was highest in Brunswick.
Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Metropolitan region
I think DLP will slip following Adem Somyurek’s departure. The party could be in freefall without him nor Bernie Finn at the helm. DLP’s name on the ballot paper still has the potential to mislead Labor voters like how the LDP’s (now Libertarians) might’ve misled Liberal voters. Somyurek’s reelection depends on his personal vote and whether he can get good preference deals.
The Victorian Socialists is my wild card pick. With the pandemic behind us, there could be a decline in the ‘freedom’ vote. At the 2025 federal election, Victorian Socialists came second or third on primary votes (even beating the Liberals or Greens or both) at various booths in Thomastown, Preston and Northcote.
@ votante
I think Palestine has increased the brand equity of the Victorian Socialists. they did well in state election prior to October 7th. I expect the decline of freedom vote like you said. The DLP or family first could.still win the final seat if there is a surplus liberal vote. On current boundaries I doubt Libs can win 2 seats
The Victorian Socialists have made in-roads with lower socio-economic and ethnically diverse communities. They also did well in Footscray (Fraser) at the recent federal election.
I also doubt the Liberals can win a second seat here. Northern Metro is mostly Labor heartland. Prior to the Greens winning Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick, all three were Labor heartland seats.
In the past the Northern Metro region included Yan Yean, Eltham and Ivanhoe which have a decent liberal vote so Libs could win second seat like they did in 2010.
Word, grapevine is that Oscar Yildiz – independent councillor from Merri-Bek – is thinking about making a run in the upper house here. Assuming Group Tickets survives to the next election, I wouldn’t rule out him getting up. He has a very loyal and fanatical base of support.
Oscar Yildiz is a centrist so may get Liberal preferences and win the last seat from Adam Somreyek. Labor would likely prefer a left-leaning MP for the final seat so preference Victorian Socialists or Legalise Cannabis.
I’m thinking no party wins more than 1 seat here (looking at the recent Demos poll too)
Lab
GRN
LIB
Socialist
ON
Potential winners here
It really depends where Surplus Right wing goes will it go to ON or DLP or Family First.
I’m not so sure there will be much of it tbh
based on the seats it takes in im saying 2 Labor 1 grn 1 Lib 1 DLP.
@maxim maix this has to the most left wing block in the entire state. no way One Nation gets a seat. status quo
DLP are gone, the incumbent is invisible and even his love letters in non-english languages won’t save him this time. Yes this is the most left wing bloc but with a low Liberal vote and high amounts of disaffection in the outer suburban seats in particular there is absolutely a vacuum for RW minor party vote that should be enough to outlast any Liberal surplus and scrape in as DLP did last time. I suspect ON are in the best position to do that with their current ascendency at this stage
The DLP just never dies and they have never relied on incumbency as the members usually quit the party mid termand they have never relected a member since they won their first seat since 1970s in 2006. I expect the DLP vote to be a bit depressed from last time due to their overperformance as a result of Lockdowns. However, with a higher Liberal primary the liberal surplus may elect them. Other alternative is Family First which does well among religious CALD voters.
ONP does not appeal to CALD voters like Religious Conservatism does.
And yet ON were still polling 3-7% in the federal seats of Wills, Cooper, Calwell and Scullin, and since that point their polling has gone crazy. Adem ran a very smart campaign and knew exactly which voters to target and how, as you say their vote will be depressed without the specific factors they were able to leverage. I don’t really see the case for much of a primary swing to the Liberals either.
I definitely agree that this won’t be ON’s easiest area but looking at the math and being reasonable about how they have gone here in the past and how they are polling currently I think it lines up well for them. They could poll quite a bit better in another region and fail to win a seat. I also suspect ON will avoid Druery and do a deal with the Coalition and maybe a couple of other RW minors on GVT
@ Maxim
I think ONP is starting to make inroads into younger generations of Eastern/Southern Europeans. Scullin may have the largest concentration of these communties. Methinks ONP may get around 10% in Mill Park largely at the expense of Freedom party which did well last time.
I heard but cant find the Source that ONP is planning to run in all lower house seats in Vic next year. Are you able to confirm that for me?
@maxim One nation managed 0.9% at the last election. also remember Victoria still uses transferrable votes based on under the table preference deals so most votes will go where the parties send them. if DLP are gone forever then Family First will probably take their seat.
@John So? They were not polling double digits statewide either
I’m well aware of how the GTV system works and directly referenced it in my comment – I think Druery’s minor party system will be undermined by an increased ON vote and they are more likely to do deals with the Coalition than non-friendly minor parties
One Nation are likely to eliminated early on.
One nation vote will be high in Reservoir up to Epping . I predict 10% in Preston and 15% in Thomastown and Broadmeadows. Their northern suburbs base is poorer whites and southern Europeans who couldnt vote Liberal. So i think Essendon and Northcote are immune to the One nation surge.
Overall Vic legislative council is cooked. The regions are a terrible idea and the NSW system should be adopted ASAP. It makes no sense for Northern victoria to include Mildura and Melbourne.
@ Up the Dragons i about Resevior- Epping as there are Southern Europeans like Macedonians etc who can vote ONP
Whilst i dont agree about Broadmeadows due to Muslim population. There will not do well in areas with Large Muslim population or South Asians like Kalkallo
Agree with you Up the Dragons, Victoria is the only state left that uses a region-based system for the Legislative Council with WA having transitioned to an at large system for the most recent state election.
@Nimalan i think that (mostly older) white voters in Muslim areas like Broadmeadows and Kalkallo are One nation’s prime targets .
Its similar to how white voters in areas with high Aboriginal populations such as Lingiari voted NO heavily . Thats the way i see it.
One nation won’t make the count here they will be eliminated early and prop up the liberals.
There is a chance labor could lose a seat to reason
I’m not sure that Reason still exists (Fiona Patten ran most recently for Legalise Cannabis).
Still labor could lose its 2nd seat to one of those left wing minor parties as it couldn’t manage 2 quotas last time and will probly hemorage votes to them
Yeah Reason pretty much solely existed to get Patten elected here – she’ll run for Legalise Cannabis if she goes again, however I think the Socialists might be able to stay ahead of her this time, either way yes I think Labor lose their 2nd seat to a left minor party.