Essendon – Victoria 2026

Very similar seat to ivanhoe. Can be won by the Libs in a landslide with a moderate leader. 2030 with Pesutto maybe 😂

@ Up the Dragons
Can be won in a Liberal landslide with a moderate leader but boundaries are much more Labor friendly than in 1992 when they last won as it includes Flemington now. Libs probably need 58% TPP statewide to win it

Like many seats close to the city I don’t see the Liberals winning this due to the demographic changes and on these boundaries are not as favourable to the LNP. I think the Liberals have a better chance of winning Niddrie instead of here.

If the Liberals can’t win Essendon, they won’t win Niddrie.

Niddrie is a wildcard given the deputt Premier sits in that seat.

@ Pencil
I actually think Niddrie may fall to Libs it is more middle class and less diverse also high average voter age home ownership and delays to airport rail will hurt Labor in Niddrie

I think Niddrie will fall before Essendon. If zben carrrol weren’t the member or deputy premier I’d say the libs would win that but Essendon I’m seriously doubting

Essendon has better boundaries for Labor than in 1992 when Libs just won. This only a seat that Libs win at very high tide elections so unless Libs get 58% TPP statewide they will not win this.

Some of these suburbs have hugely different results at federal elections in the last 10-15 years. Flemington, Kensington and even Ascot Vale have absolutely romped it in for the Greens a few times, and you’d think Essendon would be a prime target with all the new flats going in. Plus a high Liberal vote makes a three corner contest imaginable. So it’s interesting to see Labor luring back so many of those voters at a state level.

Niddrie is definitely the more likely seat to fall, despite Essendon coming close in 2010. They ideally need a strong local councillor to get Niddrie to fall as I assume Ben Carroll will go all out. Essendon almost fell in 2010 with the member retiring, although Danny Pearson is the ideal candidate to run against given his record. Any redistricting that removes Flemington from Essendon in the future will make this ideal for the Liberals to pick up.

the only factor that is probably gonna save Niddrie for labor is the fact its occupied by the deputy leader of the party. forcing them to sandbag it

Greens have announced their candidate James Williams, who ran in Maribyrnong federally 2025, and also Essendon before. Out and about early with that endorsement.

I can see the Greens increasing their primary vote but they certainly won’t make it into the ttp this time around as the north of the seat is too conservative for the Greens.

Danny Pearson has announced he’ll retire at this election – is it possible that Ben Carrol seeks a move to this safer Labor seat?

On another note commenters above have mentioned the Greens, there were very impressive swings to the Greens at the Federal level in the Flemington and Ascot Vale area, north of 50% primary in some booths which would be a doubling of their vote if replicated at the state level, where again you have the retirement of a high profile Labor MP in an area with a fairly sizeable Islamic contingent and lots of highly educated renters. Could become a very interesting 3CP race if ON do quite well in the north of the seat where Italian Catholic influence is much more pronounced, although the generally higher incomes and higher education attainment of the seat as a whole should allow the Liberals to stay ahead of them, but does that make it a competitive battle for the progressive parties to enter the 2CP and whoever does almost certainly wins the seat?

@ Maxim
i think Greens will gain in the Flemington area where there are Muslims in the Public housing area. I think Niddrie is better for ONP since it is not as well educated rather entry level middle class. I dont think Greens will do well in the suburban parts of this seat though. Niddrie is a very good chance of a loss for Labor but not sure if it will be ONP or Libs i think delay in Airport Rail has hurt in Niddrie since there is a proposed station at East Keilor. The Italian Catholic influence is strongest in Niddrie as it is the most Catholic seat in the state.

Pearson’s retirement will hurt Labor here. It’s now a question of the strength of the swing in areas like this – a mix of inner city and suburban, some hit hard by petrol prices, some doing quite well thanks to public building programs from Labor. The southern end is comfortably Labor / Greens but the northern suburbs have a strong core Liberal vote, and there is a lot of turnover in apartments in the middle of the seat that could make for larger swings here than in other parts of the inner ring.

I can’t see it happening this election, but this is the kind of seat where at future elections I can see all 4 parties making it into the 2PP depending on campaign factors. I know this won’t be the most fertile territory for One Nation this time around, but it’s not an area of Liberal institutional strength and I can see 15% happening for ON here in November with very little campaign – let alone if they tried, and if the Liberals squibbed something in a future campaign.

Rumours that Merribek councillor Katerine Theodosis will be parachuted into this seat as the Labor candidaate

Parachuted? I wouldn’t call Pascoe Vale to Essendon a parachute. They are neighbouring suburbs.

Well shes not a local. No overlap between Merri bek council and Essendon and local branch members wont get a say. I suppose it wont be an issue given how safe Essendon is for Labor.

Sounds like the local members have decided they really aren’t happy with this AWU installed candidate and won’t be assisting her campaign.

I can imagine both the Greens and particularly the Socialists will have a very strong presence at the Flemington/Ascot Vale end of this seat, whilst the northern end could attract some movement towards the Liberals and perhaps some ONP support also, maybe in relatively equal measure.

Could it be possible for Labor to be squeezed out of the 2CP by the far left and the right in this seat without an incumbent and an installed candidate relying on external support in an environment where supposedly 30-35 Laboe seats are under some sort of threat according to leaked reports? Will be a fascinating one to watch, Essendon is basically surrounded by seats where Labor will be under siege – mostly from the left albeit.

@Maxim,
The Northern part of this seat is still too conservative and will keep Greens and definitely the Victorian Socialists. It’s likely along with other inner city seats to see a large swing to the Greens but I don’t think at this stage Labor is in any serious danger of losing although if this blows up then things could get tricky.

I realise that, but I am raising the possibility that Labor’s primary vote is squeezed at both ends and they fall to 3rd in the 3CP.

Apparently Oscar Yildiz is preparing a run here as well, so really could become quite a messy count, possibility of both Labor and the Liberals missing the 2CP not nothing

The Liberals have selected NAB financial services guy and part-time local bartender Tommy Le Deux (distant relative of the Le Deux and Hawkins families of Geelong Football Club fame). Now that the seat will be vacant (with Danny Pearson’s retirement … and Labor strangely parachuting in as their candidate a councillor from the neighbouring City of Merri-bek instead of allowing Ben Carroll MP to move from Niddrie to Essendon, in which he lives) the voters might give more sway to the fact Le Deux lives and works locally. This will (like Niddrie) be close, in part because of Labor’s preselection own-goal.

The big Greens vote at the Ascot Vale end of the electorate will keep the seat in Labor hands. It might be a big swing but still closer to comfortable than very marginal. This is not to say that Labor’s primary won’t take a beating as voters swing to the Greens or even VS but eventually Labor will almost certainly hold on.

To be honest i am not sure if on the current boundaries Libs would have won the seat in 1992 . They won it by 1.2% in 1992 but the 2014 redistribution boosted the Labor magin by 2% and no real change by 2022 redistribution. I am not sure what the 2002 redistibution did to this seat. The issue is that while Libs may even overperfom the 1992 result in the northern end the Southern end has more apartments and warehouse conversions than in 1992 which makes me skeptical that this seat can be won. I think Oakeligh and Bendigo West which Kennett won will be Labor held even if Jess Wilson gets a massive statewide TPP but this time they can Melton, Yan Yean and Niddrie which Kennett failed to do.

2022 3CP (primary vote)

ALP: 44 (41.1)
LIB: 33 (29.5)
GRN: 23 (15.2)

Greens once again likely to get the biggest boost from preferences of initial exclusions, particularly from VicSoc who likely invest a little more into this seat. The public housing towers issues at the very southern end of the seat and loss of Pearson’s personal vote could be significant – especially with the new candidate being parachuted in against the wishes of the local branches. The Greens outpolled Labor comfortably in a couple of polling places last federal election in Flemington/Kensington/Ascot Vale.

If there is a large drop in the Labor primary vote that sees them fall into the 20s and ONP runs 4th, I could see a scenario where the Greens achieve a surprisingly good 3CP flow of preferences from all sources (including ONP voters in the north of the seat splitting 65 LIB-10 ALP-25 GRN or something similar) and you get an uncomfortably tight 3CP in this seat that somewhat resembles Prahran 2014, such a scenario probably brings a Liberal win more into play as well.

That all said Labor should be able to survive a 10% or so fall in their primary and stay ahead of the Greens in the count to coast home by 3-5% on their preferences