ALP 2.1% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Nathan Lambert, since 2022.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Preston covers northern parts of Darebin council, covering most of the suburbs of Preston and Reservoir. The electorate has very clear boundaries being bound on the south by Bell Street, on the north by Mahoney’s Road, on the east by Darebin Creek, and on the west by Merri Creek.
History
Preston was created for the 1945 election, and has always been held by the ALP.
It was first won in 1945 by William Ruthven, Mayor of Collingwood, and a recipient of the Victoria Cross in the First World War. He held the seat for the ALP until 1955, when he moved to the new seat of Reservoir, which he held until his retirement in 1961.
Charlie Ring held the seat for the ALP from 1955 to 1970, followed by former Mayor of Preston, Carl Kirkwood, who held the seat from 1970 to 1988.
In 1988, the ALP’s Michael Leighton won the seat, holding it right through to 2006. He served as a shadow minister when Labor was out of government in the 1990s, but never reached the frontbench after Steve Bracks became Premier.
In 2006, Leighton retired and was succeeded by Robin Scott. Scott had been re-elected three times, and retired in 2022.
Labor’s Nathan Lambert won Preston in 2022.
- Serena Ashmore (Victorian Socialists)
- Nathan Lambert (Labor)
- Loki Sangarya (Greens)
- Rachel Unicomb (Animal Justice)
Assessment
If Labor’s vote collapses, and the Greens are doing relatively well, the Greens could win this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nathan Lambert | Labor | 14,999 | 37.6 | -14.7 |
| Amanda Paliouras | Liberal | 6,883 | 17.3 | +0.6 |
| Patchouli Paterson | Greens | 6,027 | 15.1 | +0.5 |
| Gaetano Greco | Independent | 5,473 | 13.7 | +7.2 |
| Steph Price | Victorian Socialists | 2,458 | 6.2 | +2.4 |
| Angelique Matias | Freedom Party | 1,150 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Carmen Lahiff-Jenkins | Reason | 890 | 2.2 | -0.7 |
| Raouf Soliman | Family First | 885 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Rachel Unicomb | Animal Justice | 822 | 2.1 | -0.8 |
| Brian Sanaghan | Independent | 270 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 3,392 | 7.8 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nathan Lambert | Labor | 20,761 | 52.1 | -19.2 |
| Patchouli Paterson | Greens | 19,096 | 47.9 | +19.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nathan Lambert | Labor | 27,769 | 69.7 | -8.6 |
| Amanda Paliouras | Liberal | 12,088 | 30.3 | +8.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north and south-east, with 51-52% in both areas. The Greens polled 50.4% in the south-west.
The Liberal Party came second on the primary vote, but did not make the final preference count. Their vote ranged from 14.9% in the south-west to 15.7% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 15.7 | 51.8 | 7,521 | 18.7 |
| South-East | 15.3 | 51.2 | 4,929 | 12.2 |
| South-West | 14.9 | 49.6 | 4,615 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 18.8 | 52.3 | 16,661 | 41.4 |
| Other votes | 18.2 | 54.8 | 6,532 | 16.2 |
Election results in Preston at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens) and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Greens and independent candidate Greco Gaetano.
For those who missed the news at the time, Gaetano Greco (who got within striking distance in 2022 as an independent) died earlier this year. I haven’t seen any indication of any independents with similar profile standing this time.
It will be interesting to see where the people who voted for him last time park their vote.
Greco campaigned strongly on the Preston Market last time. He did well in the poorer parts around Reservoir so i assumed it got some working class voters who were angry about lockdowns. Note in 2022 Federal election, there was a slight swing to Coalition on TPP terms. Note the northern parts of this seat is more like Scullin/Thomastown than it is to the trendy progressive inner north.
At the federal election, there was a cluster of booths in the north east part of Cooper – overlapping with Preston – where the One Nation vote was in the 8 – 10% range. That could be a base to build from – there could be a ON vote in the double digits here if the ON momentum continues. As others have said, there could end up being a substantial but not seat winning ON vote at the outer end of the Mernda train line.
I think ONP has support among Southern/Eastern Europeans as i have mentioned before in this seat there are Macedonians but most of this seat is way too gentified now including part of Resevior such as Regent and Edwards Lake. It is the area around Keon Park/Ruthven that remains working Class.