GRN 10.2% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Ellen Sandell, since 2014.
Geography
Central suburbs of Melbourne. The electorate of Melbourne covers the Melbourne CBD and the inner-city suburbs of East Melbourne, Docklands, Carlton, Parkville, North Melbourne and Kensington. The electorate covers most of the City of Melbourne on the northern side of the Yarra River, and a small part of the City of Yarra.
History
There was a district with the name “Melbourne” in the original Victorian Legislative Assembly at the 1856 election, before being abolished in 1859. It was recreated in 1889 as a single member district that has existed ever since. The seat has a long history of being held by the ALP, who held it continuously from 1908 until 2014.
The recreated Melbourne district was won by Geoffrey Carter in 1889, and was won in 1900 by Labor candidate Edward Findley. Findley was expelled in 1901 for seditious libel after publishing an Irish article criticising the King in a radical union newspaper that he edited. He lost the following by-election, but went on to serve in the Senate from 1903 to 1917 and again from 1922 to 1928.
The 1901 by-election was won by Conservative candidate James Boyd, who supported conservative state governments, including serving as a minister from 1907 to 1908, when he stepped down. He was elected as a federal Liberal MP in 1913 and served until his defeat in 1919.
Melbourne was won by Labor candidate Alexander Rogers in 1908. He held the seat until 1924. He was succeeded by Thomas Hayes, who held the seat until 1955. That year, he left the ALP and joined the new ALP (Anti-Communist), the precursor to the Democratic Labor Party, but was defeated at the 1955 election.
The seat was then held by the ALP’s Arthur Clarey from 1955 until 1972. In 1972, Melbourne was won by the ALP’s Barry Jones. He held the seat until 1977, when he resigned to run for the federal electorate of Lalor, which he held until his retirement in 1998. He served as a minister in the Hawke government and went on to serve as National President of the ALP.
The seat was then filled by Keith Remington from 1977 to 1988, and Neil Cole from 1988 to 1999.
In 1999, Melbourne was won by Bronwyn Pike. She served as a minister for the entirety of the Bracks and Brumby governments. The seat of Melbourne was considered very safe in 1999, with Pike winning 63.8% of the two-party vote. In 2002, the Greens first stood in the seat, running Dr Richard di Natale, who polled 24% of the primary vote and reducing Pike’s margin to 1.9%, which remained almost exactly the same in 2006. Di Natale went on to stand for the Senate in 2007 and was elected to the Senate at the 2010 federal election.
The Greens had come close to winning in 2002 and 2006 on the back of preferences from the Liberal Party. In 2010 the Greens stood barrister and human rights advocate Brian Walters. At the 2010 federal election, the Liberal Party continued their track record of preferencing the Greens ahead of the Labor Party in Labor-Greens inner-city marginal seats in Sydney and Melbourne, which saw Adam Bandt elected as the Greens MP for the federal seat of Melbourne.
Bandt’s election, and the ensuing hung parliament which saw the Greens in the balance of power in the Senate and Bandt sharing the balance of power in the House of Representatives, triggered a backlash in the Liberal Party. In the Victorian state election three months later, the Liberal Party reversed their position on preferencing the Greens. In the inner-city Labor-Greens marginal seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Northcote and Brunswick, the Liberal Party preferenced the ALP ahead of the Greens.
In the seat of Melbourne, Pike suffered a swing of almost 9% on primary votes, with 4.5% going to the Greens and 5.9% going to the Liberal Party. This resulted in the ALP on 35.7%, the Greens on 31.9% and the Liberal Party on 28%. Despite the swing away from the ALP and towards the Greens and the Liberal Party, the Liberal preference decision helped Pike increase her two-party margin over the Greens from 1.9% to 6.2%.
Overall, the Liberal-National coalition won a narrow victory over the ALP, with 45 seats to the Coalition and 43 seats to Labor, with no seats going to independents or minor parties. Pike has followed the trend of other senior Labor MPs John Brumby and Rob Hulls in resigning from her seat, triggering a by-election.
The 2012 by-election was won by Labor’s Jennifer Kanis in a very close result. Kanis won the seat by a 1.5% margin after preferences over Greens candidate Cathy Oke. Oke topped the poll on primary votes but Kanis benefited from stronger preference flows and won.
The Greens struck back at the 2014 general election, with Greens candidate Ellen Sandell defeating Kanis. Sandell was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
- Davydd Griffiths (Labor)
- Naomi Jones (Animal Justice)
- Ellen Sandell (Greens)
- Jordan van den Lamb (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
The Greens margin in this seat would look much smaller if Liberal preferences flowed to Labor rather than the Greens, but Labor’s poor polling should solidify Sandell’s position.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ellen Sandell | Greens | 15,855 | 37.3 | -1.3 |
| Rebecca Thistleton | Labor | 13,033 | 30.7 | -5.1 |
| George Palackalody | Liberal | 7,522 | 17.7 | +0.3 |
| Colleen Bolger | Victorian Socialists | 2,323 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Nicola Foxworthy | Reason | 1,601 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| Rabin Bangaar | Animal Justice | 701 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Michael Janson | Family First | 535 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Steven J. Smith | Freedom Party | 521 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Laylah Al-Saimary | Independent | 428 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 1,485 | 3.4 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ellen Sandell | Greens | 25,593 | 60.2 | +8.5 |
| Rebecca Thistleton | Labor | 16,926 | 39.8 | -8.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rebecca Thistleton | Labor | 31,895 | 75.0 | +0.6 |
| George Palackalody | Liberal | 10,624 | 25.0 | -0.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The Greens won the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.2% in the south to 67.1% in the north-east.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the north-west to 20.2% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 11.1 | 63.0 | 6,114 | 14.4 |
| North-East | 15.5 | 67.1 | 2,973 | 7.0 |
| South | 20.2 | 59.2 | 2,590 | 6.1 |
| Pre-poll | 19.3 | 59.6 | 21,853 | 51.3 |
| Other votes | 18.6 | 57.5 | 9,059 | 21.3 |
Election results in Melbourne at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor) and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Hi Ben you have put for incumbent mp Gabrielle de Vietri for Richmond instead of Ellen Sandell.
Fixed, thanks.
If the election was tomorrow, I think Sandell would lose her seat. There’s a long time (especially in politics) for the Greens to make a case for themselves but they need to figure out why they lost the federal seat.
i dont think Sandell will loose her seat Labor will still be less popular than 2022 or 2018 so we may go back to 2014 results. This margin is inflated due to change in Liberal preferences.
I agree with Mimalan,
I personally think Richmond is more a risk then here especially that’s where swing against the Greens was the highest.
Sorry Nimalan”
Yeah I think Richmond is a likely Labor gain, whereas Melbourne is more of a dark horse that might be a surprise on the night but I’d still favour the Greens to hold it.
I can see a situation where two surprise flips on the night are Melbourne flipping from Greens to Labor but Footscray flipping from Labor to Greens.
@ Trent
I think in Footscary it is probably Victorian Socialists that will surge more than Greens but they will still preference Greens
Don’t be surprised if Labor makes a play here to offset potential losses in the outer suburbs and regions. It could be a surprise gain like it was for Federal Labor. I think Richmond is more vulnerable than Melbourne or Brunswick are because of its white collar demographic.
Neo Nazi leader Thomas Sewell crashed Jacinta allan’s press conference but was taken away by security on Sunday Neo Nazis attacked the Aboriginal Camp in Kings Domain. It is weird that the Neo Nazis say they are against immigration but attacked the one group of people who are certainly not immigrants.
Interesting in the North Melbourne East the Victorian Socialists come third place.
booth
@nimalan neo nazis are effectively white supremicsts and the equivalent of the KKK. it has nothing to do with immigrants. and they do not represent the views of most people on the centre right and we in no way condone their behaviour or want to associate them. they just happen to turn up to our events.
How don’t we have proscribed hate groups in Australia yet? The NSN is definitely a hate group.
Should they be listed as a terrorist organisation I sometimes wonder why the KKK is not listed as one in the US?
Terrorist organisations are usually groups who use violence to make political statements and active a political outcome
SpaceFish, VS came second on primary votes at the federal election at some booths in Fraser and Scullin.
North of Victoria St, Melbourne is quite deep Green.
Votante,
Very interesting indeed as they could be a problem for the Greens in the future in seats like Brunswick.
@SpaceFish
Vic Socialists seem a long way off. I don’t think they have beaten Labor anywhere before.
They may threaten the Greens in a LegCo race.
Votante,
Agreed, I don’t see this occurring anytime soon.
The Strategy of the Victorian Socialitss is to final the final seat in the Northern Metro Upper House electorate. It maybe harder this time as a higher Liberal primary vote may lead to a surplus that can be given to Family First or DLP. I dont think Libs can win 2 seats in the Northern Metro. The Greens pretty much get a quota in Northern Metro so their seat is safe it is the final seat which is up for grabs.
Neo Nazis disturbed Rememberence Day ceremonies yesterday this following the same scum holding an antisemetic sign outside NSW Parliament and Allegra Spender and Liberal MP Kellie Sloanne recieving death threats after they condemed their vile protest.
Jordan van den Lamb is running here. I don’t know what effect he will have but he certainly won’t win.
Considering he lives in Albert Park District (St Kilda) and VS wouldn’t have a chance of winning a lower house seat anywhere but would probably poll best in Footscray, Brunswick & Richmond, I reckon his main motivation to run in Melbourne – high profile seat that could be marginal ALP v GRN and directly against the leader of the Greens – is not so much about his own result, but about:
a) Maximum exposure & publicity for his next federal run;
b) Increase the upper house vote in Northern Metro
in some great news Victoria has smashed its 2025 Renewable energy target, the target was 40% Renewable electricity. Howevr last year Victoria got 44.6% Renewable electricity and is on track to reach the 65% Renewable electricty target in 2030 and the 95% Renewable electicity target in 2035.
I think the VS presence may be more so to build up van den Lamb for a 2028 run for federal Melbourne; no Adam Bandt gives them a high-profile path to about 10% of the vote or so there.
Labor have preselected City of Melbourne councillor Davydd Griffiths to run here, he’s been on the council since 2020 so should have some sort of name recognition.