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Hi Ben you have put for incumbent mp Gabrielle de Vietri for Richmond instead of Ellen Sandell.
Fixed, thanks.
If the election was tomorrow, I think Sandell would lose her seat. There’s a long time (especially in politics) for the Greens to make a case for themselves but they need to figure out why they lost the federal seat.
i dont think Sandell will loose her seat Labor will still be less popular than 2022 or 2018 so we may go back to 2014 results. This margin is inflated due to change in Liberal preferences.
I agree with Mimalan,
I personally think Richmond is more a risk then here especially that’s where swing against the Greens was the highest.
Sorry Nimalan”
Yeah I think Richmond is a likely Labor gain, whereas Melbourne is more of a dark horse that might be a surprise on the night but I’d still favour the Greens to hold it.
I can see a situation where two surprise flips on the night are Melbourne flipping from Greens to Labor but Footscray flipping from Labor to Greens.
@ Trent
I think in Footscary it is probably Victorian Socialists that will surge more than Greens but they will still preference Greens
Don’t be surprised if Labor makes a play here to offset potential losses in the outer suburbs and regions. It could be a surprise gain like it was for Federal Labor. I think Richmond is more vulnerable than Melbourne or Brunswick are because of its white collar demographic.
Neo Nazi leader Thomas Sewell crashed Jacinta allan’s press conference but was taken away by security on Sunday Neo Nazis attacked the Aboriginal Camp in Kings Domain. It is weird that the Neo Nazis say they are against immigration but attacked the one group of people who are certainly not immigrants.
Interesting in the North Melbourne East the Victorian Socialists come third place.
booth
@nimalan neo nazis are effectively white supremicsts and the equivalent of the KKK. it has nothing to do with immigrants. and they do not represent the views of most people on the centre right and we in no way condone their behaviour or want to associate them. they just happen to turn up to our events.
How don’t we have proscribed hate groups in Australia yet? The NSN is definitely a hate group.
Should they be listed as a terrorist organisation I sometimes wonder why the KKK is not listed as one in the US?
Terrorist organisations are usually groups who use violence to make political statements and active a political outcome
SpaceFish, VS came second on primary votes at the federal election at some booths in Fraser and Scullin.
North of Victoria St, Melbourne is quite deep Green.
Votante,
Very interesting indeed as they could be a problem for the Greens in the future in seats like Brunswick.
@SpaceFish
Vic Socialists seem a long way off. I don’t think they have beaten Labor anywhere before.
They may threaten the Greens in a LegCo race.
Votante,
Agreed, I don’t see this occurring anytime soon.
The Strategy of the Victorian Socialitss is to final the final seat in the Northern Metro Upper House electorate. It maybe harder this time as a higher Liberal primary vote may lead to a surplus that can be given to Family First or DLP. I dont think Libs can win 2 seats in the Northern Metro. The Greens pretty much get a quota in Northern Metro so their seat is safe it is the final seat which is up for grabs.