GRN 7.3% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Gabrielle de Vietri, since 2022.
Geography
Inner Melbourne. Richmond covers most of the City of Yarra, covering the suburbs of Abbotsford, Burnley, Clifton Hill, Collingwood, Fitzroy and Richmond.
History
Richmond was first created as a two-member district in the first Victorian Legislative Assembly in 1856. Both seats were held by unaligned members until 1889, when one of the two seats was won by the ALP.
In 1904, Richmond became a single-member district. It was first won by unaligned member George Bennett, who had been one of the two members for Richmond since 1889.
In 1908, the ALP’s Edmond Cotter won Richmond. He held it continuously from 1908 until 1945. In 1945, Richmond was won by Stan Keon, who left in 1949 to take the federal electorate of Yarra. He went on to be expelled from the Labor Party in 1955 and helped found the Democratic Labor Party.
In 1949, Richmond was won by Frank Scully, also of the ALP. He served as an assistant minister in the Cain government until 1955, when he left the ALP as part of the split that saw the creation of the Democratic Labor Party. He won re-election in Richmond in 1955 and became leader of the DLP in the Victorian Parliament from 1955 to 1958, when he lost the seat to the ALP’s Bill Towers. The ALP held the seat continuously from 1958 until 2022.
Towers held the seat until 1962, when he was succeeded by Clyde Holding. Holding became leader of the Victorian ALP from 1967, losing the 1970, 1973 and 1976 elections. In 1977 he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports, and served as a minister in the Hawke government, and retired in 1998.
Richmond was held from 1977 to 1988 by Theo Sidiropoulos, and was won in 1988 by Demetri Dollis. In 1999, Dollis was disendorsed by Labor leader Steve Bracks, and was replaced by former Lord Mayor of Melbourne, Richard Wynne.
Wynne served in a variety of frontbench roles in the Bracks and Brumby governments.
Wynne faced numerous serious challenges for his seat from the Greens over the last two decades. In 2010, Wynne’s primary vote dropped by 9%, and would have likely lost the seat to the Greens barring a decision by the Liberal Party to preference Labor over the Greens. Wynne suffered a further swing in 2014, but managed to win a fifth term. Wynne strengthened his margin in 2018, when the Liberal Party decided to not contest the seat.
Wynne retired in 2022, and Greens candidate Gabrielle de Vietri won the seat. de Vietri benefited from the Liberal Party deciding to preference the Greens after preferencing Labor for over a decade.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gabrielle De Vietri | Greens | 13,771 | 34.7 | +1.2 |
| Lauren O’Dwyer | Labor | 13,037 | 32.8 | -11.6 |
| Lucas Moon | Liberal | 7,456 | 18.8 | +18.8 |
| Jeremy Cowen | Reason | 1,830 | 4.6 | -2.0 |
| Roz Ward | Victorian Socialists | 1,828 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Lis Viggers | Animal Justice | 934 | 2.4 | -0.5 |
| Markus Freiverts | Family First | 458 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Meca Ho | Independent | 417 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 1,381 | 3.4 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gabrielle De Vietri | Greens | 22,772 | 57.3 | +14.1 |
| Lauren O’Dwyer | Labor | 16,959 | 42.7 | -14.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lauren O’Dwyer | Labor | 29,451 | 74.1 | -7.1 |
| Lucas Moon | Liberal | 10,280 | 25.9 | +7.1 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the north to 63.9% in the centre.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10% in the centre to 20.3% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 20.3 | 58.4 | 5,347 | 13.4 |
| Central | 10.0 | 63.9 | 4,020 | 10.1 |
| North | 11.5 | 56.6 | 2,356 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 20.4 | 56.2 | 21,803 | 54.8 |
| Other votes | 20.2 | 55.8 | 6,295 | 15.8 |
Election results in Richmond at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor) and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Labor gain unless Yarra for All contests. Current MP is very unpopular. Safe injecting room, rising crime rates etc have caused heaps of dissapointment with the Greens. Labor in the regions is like greens in the inner city. People are itching to get rid of them
I predict a Victoria street divide here assuming Libs preference Labor all Southern booths will be Red while all northern booths except Clifton Hill to be Green especially the Fitzroy ones.
With a good vietnamese candidate i think the libs could get a lot more votes around Richmond.
I’ve always been curious about why the Liberals do much better in Richmond in comparison to other inner-city suburbs in Melbourne. Are there any locals with insight into why this might be the case?
@ James
I can give an insight as a Melbournian Richmond is on the same train line as the Liberal heartland so it is a bit more Tealish it attracts more fiscally conservative young professionals there is a Tech scene in Cremorne. A lot of young professionals in Richmond would have attended Private schools etc so it is culturally different.
@ Up the Dragons
The Vietnamese community in Richmond is declining and is generally concetrated in areas with Public housing so it did tends be an older demographic so i dont think they will vote Liberal.
@Nimalan – thanks for clarifying. It does make sense that Richmond is on the same train line to places like Camberwell and Brighton which are considered affluent suburbs.
@Nimalan yes but the opposition to the safe injecting room from that community – particularly business owners in Victoria st – means their probably not voting Labor or Greens. Excluding elderley who are less engaged with voting. Surprisingly the second highest Liberal PV in the seat was Lennox st commission flats – 22% – where Vietnamese concentration is highest.
Anyways i cant see Gabby winning again. She is seen as ineffective . Candidate controversy and liberal preferences helped her last time. Those factors probably wont be there come 2026.
Interestingly 70% of Liberal preferences went to the Greens in 2022! Probably the highest in any Labor-Green contest .
@ Up the Dragons
Yes you are correct Vietnamese community is highest around Lennox Street where the safe injecting room so maybe they can increase their vote in that part. As it is has been 50 yeras since the fall of Saigon a long of younger generations of Vietnamese have moved to the suburbs as they can now purchase homes. Also private apartments being built elsewhere is diluting their numbers. However, i accept your point about safe injecting room.
@ Up the Dragons
If preference flows go 60:40 to Labor from Libs this time it could tip the seat.
@Nimalan Very true, Liberal voters can decide Labor-Green contests . Who Liberal hq preferences can decide if Labor ends up in majority or minority government
Safe injecting room would be popular with the Vietnamese community in Little Saigon, this is one area the Libs can captialise on here though they still have no chance of winning.
*Not be popular
James, Richmond is Hawthorn without Scotch and a university and could be split into three or four suburbs.
-Cremore (South of Swan St) is the Southern part of Richmond, and is an extension of South Yarra, with a more generified professional demographic.
-Burnley is the Eastern part, bordering Hawthorn, and has a similar demographic to Hawthorn West.
-North of Bridge Rd, is where you find the public housing towers, and is possibility the most traditional part of Richmond. It was once a solid working class suburb which is now more middle class.
-South of Bridge Rd / North of Swan St, is a mix of Cremore and Burnley.
@Dan M the Vietnamese community are leading the opposition to safe injecting rooms. Most users come from outside the area. But thats besides the point. Because both competetive parties support it it probably wont affect the outcome too much. The greens pro drugs policy will hurt them here though… I think if Yarra for all contests they will surely win. Maybe a current councillor. They are socialist, anti safe injecting rooms and tough on crime
I don’t think a Yarra For All candidate could actually win. They would do well in parts of Richmond itself but wouldn’t overcome the high Greens vote in Fitzroy & Collingwood (council elections are very different to state).
I think out of the 4 Greens seats won in 2022, this is the one they are most likely to lose this time. Even if the Liberals direct preferences to the Greens again, I think it would be extremely close, but if the Liberals direct preferences to Labor here (which I suspect they will) it should be a pretty comfortable Labor gain.
Of the 4 Greens seats from 2022:
– Richmond: Likely Labor gain
– Melbourne: Like the federal election could be a surprise Labor gain;
– Brunswick: Comfortable Greens retain regardless of preferences;
– Prahran: Likely Greens (re)gain since Labor don’t do as well outside St Kilda, and the Liberals would need to outperform their byelection primary vote (which itself was under extraordinarily favourable conditions) by 6-7% to have any chance of retaining when both ALP & GRN are directing preferences to each other.
Footscray could be a surprise Greens gain, especially if the Liberals decide to preference against incumbents in ALP/GRN contests, which would be their smartest strategy for maximum disruption, and to avoid picking a side by just promoting a “time for change” narrative that preferencing against incumbents supports.
Greens seem to no longer be getting sophomore surges (which Sandell never got anyway) and Palestine has made Liberal preferences untenable. I’ve only heard criticism of De Vietri from people who weren’t going to vote Green anyway, but not hearing much positivity compared to Tim Read or Sam Hibbins (pre scandal).
The Greens might have a good election if the dynamics are anything like recent ACT elections (Labor are tired but Liberals are untenable) but at the moment they don’t look like a very convincing outfit.
While I think the Greens will hold Melbourne and Brunswick I think they could be in serious trouble here and wouldn’t be surprised if this returned to the Labor fold.
Richmond seems to be the most at-risk Greens seat.
The federal election results would indicate that this is a Labor seat. In the federal seat of Melbourne, Labor won the 2CP at every ordinary polling booth south of Victoria St as well as the Abbotsford prepoll. Labor also won the 2CP in Clifton Hill, which got moved into Cooper quite recently. Also, the postal and prepoll votes strongly favoured Labor.
The state Greens have some advantages that the federal Greens didn’t. There is the longevity of the state Labor government. Also, the federal Greens were caught off guard and hardly sandbagged the seat.
If the Liberals didn’t preference the Greens they would’ve never had a shot at this seat. It’s been a Labor seat through and through.
Gabrielle De Vitri has a bit of Max Chandler Mather about her. Not a big asset to her community and a complete left-wing firebrand who is more concerned about Israel weapons and public housing towers than the people that live there.
@ Tommo9
i often compare Richmond to South Brisbane and it has a simmilar history. Both seats used to be DLP stronnghold and were very Irish Catholic in a distant past. Votante is correct that Victoria Parade/Street is a big divide between the Ultraleft and Pragmatic Progressives. Clifton Hill is one exception i expect the Greens to still do well in Fitzroy and Collingwood which are Ultra left and among the most leftiest suburbs in the naiton
Nimalan, I agree that there are different types of Greens seats and blocs of Greens voters. In Richmond or a capital city CBD seat e.g. Melbourne, it would be better for the Greens to have someone more teal-ish or more pragmatist and not too much of a firebrand.
@Tommo9, one thing I will mention though about De Vitri’s concern for the public housing towers is that I believe the seat of Richmond has the most towers in the city (second would be pretty close between Melbourne & Prahran) so I think that is one issue or demographics where the Greens might peel off some traditional Labor voters, to offset the shift back from Greens to Labor among the more professional class in those seats.
@Trent fair point but I would’ve thought most of the housing towers were in Flemington/Kensington areas in the west rather than the eastern end of the CBD.
I also heard that De Vitri isn’t that popular either. Loud and bombastic but no substance.
There are major concentrations of public housing towers in Fitzroy and Collingwood (as well as the Lennox estate in Richmond itself), which are all within this seat.
Actually Richmond & Melbourne both have the same amount, but there’s still more time to save the ones in Richmond than Melbourne. Including towers already demolished this term (the ‘red’ towers in Carlton) or that have started demolition, here are the towers per seat:
Melbourne (12 towers):
6 in Carlton (2 already demolished)
4 in North Melbourne (1 already demolished, 2 have started relocation)
2 in Kensington
Richmond (12 towers):
5 in Richmond (1 has started renter relocation)
4 in Fitzroy
3 in Collingwood
Prahran (7 towers):
3 in South Yarra (1 has started renter relocation)
2 in Prahran
1 in Windsor
1 in St Kilda
Maribyrnong (5 towers)
All 5 in Flemington (2 have started renter relocation)
Albert Park (3 towers):
2 in South Melbourne
1 in Albert Park
Other than there there are just 2 in Williamstown and 1 each in Northcote, Brunswick and Footscray I believe.
There are a lot of low-rise / walk-ups in Richmond too, mostly just north of the towers between Elizabeth & Victoria, where renters are also in the process of being relocated. Similarly there were a lot of low-rise / walk-ups in Prahran (Bangs & Essex St) and South Yarra as well which have already been demolished & some of the replacements completed. But I don’t think there has been the same opposition to redeveloping the low-rise.
It’s the high rises where the opposition is, and they are potentially hundreds of life-long Labor voters, angry at Labor over the proposed (or in progress) demolition, with the Greens staunchly opposing the demolition.