ALP 0.2% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Kat Theophanous, since 2018.
Geography
Inner north of Melbourne. Northcote mainly covers the southern suburbs of Darebin council, as well as the northeastern arm of Yarra council. It covers the suburbs of Alphington, Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury and parts of Preston.
History
Northcote was first created for the 1927 state election, and in that time has been won by Labor at every general election, with the seat falling to the Greens for one year at a 2017 by-election.
Northcote was first won in 1927 by John Cain, who had previously been the Member for Jika Jika since 1917. Cain became leader of the Victorian ALP in 1937, and led the party through extended periods of hung parliaments. He served as Premier briefly in 1943 when the Labor-supported Country Party government fell, and served as Premier for two years from 1945 to 1947, before losing the 1947 election badly.
In 1952, John Cain won the state election, and governed as Premier until 1955, when Labor MPs from the Catholic “Movement” faction crossed the floor and brought down the government. These MPs formed the basis of the Democratic Labor Party. Cain remained as leader of the ALP until his death in 1957 while campaigning for the ALP in a Queensland state election.
The 1957 Northcote by-election was won by the ALP’s Frank Wilkes. He became the ALP’s deputy leader in 1967, and became leader in 1976. He served as leader until 1981, when he was replaced by John Cain Jr, who won government in 1982. Wilkes served as a minister in the Cain government until his retirement in 1988.
In 1988, Northcote was won by Tony Sheehan, who was Member for Ivanhoe from 1982 to 1985, when he lost the seat to the Liberal Party. He served as a minister in the final years of the Labor government, serving as Treasurer in 1992 before the Liberal Party won the state election that year. He retired in 1998.
The 1998 by-election was won by former ABC newsreader Mary Delahunty. She served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2006, when she retired.
In 2006, Northcote was won by Fiona Richardson, and she was re-elected in 2010 and 2014. Richardson became Minister for Women and Minister for Prevention of Family Violence following the 2014 election.
Richardson died in August 2017. The subsequent by-election was won by Greens candidate Lidia Thorpe, thanks to an 11.6% swing.
Thorpe did improve on the Greens 2014 vote at the 2018 election but it wasn’t enough to retain her seat, losing to Labor candidate Kat Theophanous. Thorpe was subsequently appointed to a casual vacancy in the Senate.
Theophanous won a second term in 2022 by an extremely slim margin, making Northcote the most marginal Labor seat in Victoria.
- Lynda Awad (Liberal)
- Campbell Gome (Greens)
- Kath Larkin (Victorian Socialists)
- Jim Penman (Libertarian)
- Kat Theophanous (Labor)
Assessment
The Greens would be hoping that a slumping Labor vote would allow them to win here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kat Theophanous | Labor | 17,303 | 40.6 | -1.1 |
| Campbell Gome | Greens | 12,797 | 30.0 | -9.5 |
| Stewart Todhunter | Liberal | 5,205 | 12.2 | +1.5 |
| Kath Larkin | Victorian Socialists | 2,776 | 6.5 | +6.5 |
| April Clarke | Reason | 1,539 | 3.6 | +0.2 |
| Tim Oseckas | Animal Justice | 757 | 1.8 | -0.7 |
| Anastacia Ntouni | Freedom Party | 729 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Anthony Cave | Liberal Democrats | 530 | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Adrian Whitehead | Independent | 518 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Kathrine Ashton | Family First | 408 | 1.0 | +0.9 |
| Ashish Verma | Independent | 80 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 2,445 | 5.4 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kat Theophanous | Labor | 34,840 | 81.7 | -1.5 |
| Stewart Todhunter | Liberal | 7,802 | 18.3 | +1.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kat Theophanous | Labor | 21,413 | 50.2 | -1.5 |
| Campbell Gome | Greens | 21,229 | 49.8 | +1.5 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won the two-candidate-preferred vote in the south-east and on the pre-poll vote, which made up half of the total vote. The Greens won the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north and south-west.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the south-west to 13.7% in the south-east.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 10.1 | 47.3 | 6,605 | 15.4 |
| South-West | 8.9 | 46.8 | 5,236 | 12.2 |
| South-East | 13.7 | 52.0 | 3,452 | 8.0 |
| Pre-poll | 13.1 | 51.9 | 21,527 | 50.1 |
| Other votes | 13.1 | 49.5 | 6,166 | 14.3 |
Election results in Northcote at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens) and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
@Josh Yarra Bend developments were finished in 2022 and people started moving in a bit after. So four years ago there werent apartments mainly townhouses in the precinct. Theres a lot thats still being developed. There are a lot young couples and young families that have moved in but the apartments are pretty small they’re not really suitable for bigger families, never been inside the townhouses so I cant comment on them. Residents are mostly professionals with good incomes. There was supposed to be an Aldi and Coles there but that doesnt seem to be happening anymore so most people do their shopping in Ivanhoe or Kew.
This probably fits in better with the Kew electorate than the Northcote electorate. Strangely enough Heidelberg Road divides Darebin and Yarra councils so Yarra Bend doesnt have a whole lot in common with the rest of Alphington and Fairfield. Theres a bit of Kat Theophanous advertising along that stretch of Heidelberg. I’d say Yarra Bend will help her to hold the seat.
Another densification project in the electorate is the Merri development which finished last year. Thats in the southern part of Northcote at the very beggining of High Street. It includes apartments and townhouses too but some are reserved for social housing. Its around 250 homes in total so a lot smaller than Yarra Bend.
I must be having a quiet afternoon!!
That block in Alphington went from 429 electors in 2020 to 1000 in 2023 according to redistribution data.
I would be not surprised if it was not close to 1500 now.
And yes, it does seem very detached from everything around it.
The Merri Development has 99 social housing units out of 250. It replaced a previous Housing Commission estate so is probably like for like. The Merri units were high priced – they would attract the well heeled. Not sure of that necessarily helps Labor or the Greens.
Amazing, thank you. It’ll definitely be a different dynamic and likely show up at the Alphington / Fairfield booths, even compared to 2025.
The Yarra Bend development is huge and there is still ongoing construction so the population will continue to grow between this year’s election and 2030, but there has undoubtedly been large growth in residents here since 2022.
I really have no idea how they will vote, don’t have a good sense of who lives there as whenever I’ve been to the little shops there it’s been very quiet and the only people around are the tradies working on the construction. Clearly not as trendy as High St Northcote/Thornbury though so wouldn’t expect it to be as strong for The Greens as those areas.
That development doesn’t seem like an outlier in this seat to me as others have commented. Its nearest sizeable shopping area is definitely Fairfield, which is a short walk from there, and it is definitely part of the Fairfield community rather than Ivanhoe or Kew.
The other parts of Northcote that has seen large-scale development is South Preston, around the junction of Plenty Rd and High St.
I can see the Liberals getting a primary vote in the single figures, maybe even falling to 4th spot. This is thanks to One Nation and Jim Penman (LBT) splitting the right-wing vote. If the right-wing vote increases, could help Labor via preferences?
The Liberals could fall to 5th behind Labor, Greens, One Nation, Vic Socialists. I wouldn’t be surprised to see One Nation outpoll the Liberals here if what we are hearing about older Southern Europeans supporting them is correct. Will obviously still be a weak seat for them, as it has always been a weak seat for the Liberals, but still an interesting dynamic.
@ Adam
Re Southern Europeans i suspect it will be the second and third generations that are more right wing as they were more accepted by the Anglo-Celtic majority. Northcote would have an overrepresentation of first generations Greeks who worked in factories once upon a time and may still not as fluent in English. Kos Samaras said many of those voted for the Voice. Many Second Generation Greeks as they came of age while growing up in the inner city often moved to places like Templstowe and thid generations often grew up there.
Just like many First Generation Italians lived in Brunswick and Carlton but younger generations moved out to Keilor, Niddrie, Essendon etc.
So i feel it is more likely to be a younger generation Greek who is Australian born who decided to stay in Northcote and perhaps send there childeen to Alphington Grammer that will vote ONP over the post war migrant who will vote Labor till they die.
See podcast below
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/greek/en/podcast-episode/kosmos-samaras-results-by-7-30pm-yes-in-vic-nsw-needs-to-get-55-2023/dl5gk8szk
I think Wilson might have slightly more appeal here and allow the Liberals to remain 3rd, I doubt there was much last time but anyone voting tactically has little reason to this cycle. ONP I could see outpolling the Liberals in Preston though
@Adam I cant see the Victorian Socialists overtaking the Liberals in Northcote. Or in any seat except Brunswick. And theres very little support for One Nation among first generation Greek immigrants. There is a bit of support for One Nation in the second generation but that hurts Labor rather than the Liberals. It matters more in seats with big/more second generation Greek populations like Clarinda, Mulgrave and St Albans where ON could enter the TPP. I can see ON doing very well in North west Reservoir and the Liberal vote in the Preston electorate falling by a lot but I doubt ON will crack 10% in any booth south of Bell Street AKA any booth in the Northcote electorate.
@ Up the Hawk
I think St Albans is mostly first generation Greeks but in anycase St Albans in terms of Southern and Eastern Europeans is more Maltese and Croation. As it is a very Low SES area the second and third generation i believe would have left. I think Bulleen has the largest share of Greek ancestory at 10%
@Nimalan I meant seats that will have high ON votes. The Greek community in the west is less mobile than in the north or southeast. So its more likely for them to have stayed in the area they grew up in or move to nearby more middle class suburbs like Keilor or Caroline Springs.
Keilor Downs and Kealba is definitely more second generation Greeks whereas St Albans itself and Sunshine North is an older demographic. And yes Maltese and Yugoslav communities are definitely larger in St Albans electorate.
I think support for ON among Southern Europeans like any group depends on occupation/income too. Greeks in Bulleen electorate tend more to be professionals than Greeks in the St Albans, Clarinda or Mulgrave electorates. So while it is notable there being ON among second generation immigrants its probably more to do with occupation/income, crime in lower SES areas and conservative social views combined with a lack of affinity with the Liberal party.
VS could absolutely outpoll the Libs here. It’s only 2 years since they cracked 30% in one of the southern Northcote wards and they got good swings to them even in theoretically leafier booths like Fairfield in 2025. It’s a good seat that’s only getting better for them with a known candidate and the halo effect of their other really big campaigns.
And, ON and Penman don’t need to split the right much here to blunt the swing to the Libs. People in SA persisted in believing ON couldn’t win votes in the inner city then they got 11% with a disendorsed candidate and nobody handing out for them in the seat of Adelaide.
Preferences from right and far right voters will do a lot to determine the Labor / Greens fight here and there’s no good way for those parties to appeal to those voters – they’ve just got to fight to make their primary votes as high as they can against each other and pray to the lower order preference gods.
@upthehawks
Good points. i agree. Interestingly Keilor is quite an upper middle class suburb and in terms of SES it is actually more like the Eastern suburbs.
Was having a Zoom meeting on High St Northcote last week. I was explaining to participants that I had accepted offer to write chapter on Victorian ALP for forthcoming book. Meeting gatecrashed by passer by (female probably a boomer) who complained Labor’s environmental record very poor and that I should read article in The Monthly that pointed to malign influence of ETU.