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If the Greens are going to win another lower house seat I think Northcote is most likely given how close it was here.
I think Kat Theophenous is quite popular
If Libs preferenced Labor ahead of Greens in 2022 then based on 2018 preference flows then Labor wins by 4.4% according to Antony Green. I dont see the Greens vote increasing here, Labor seems to be doing well in Darebin at all levels of government. The only danger is if Libs preference Greens again then a small ALP to LIB swing will be enough to win the seat even if Greens drop slightly.
This was a Greens target seat in 2022. The Liberals told their voters to put Labor last so this would’ve helped the Greens come close.
The Greens didn’t make much headway at the federal election south of Bell Street. I think Ged Kearney has a solid personal vote. Also, there was a dip in Greens support in inner Melbourne where there’s a high percentage of affluent inner-city dwellers and working professionals.
Nimalan and I (and others) have discussed before how Northcote & Brunswick are quite different, despite looking similar on the surface and each having a similar history and pattern of gentrification.
Northcote is exactly the type of area where the Greens went backwards at the federal election, similar to Richmond, where voters who once shifted from Labor to Greens seem to embracing Labor again. Whereas Brunswick is a lot more militant/activist left-wing, where if anything, any movement from the Greens is more likely to go to Victorian Socialists (and back to the Greens) than to Labor.
I also think that regardless of how the Liberals direct their preferences this time, the LIB to GRN flows will likely be weaker than in 2022 just due to how much both the Liberals & groups like Advance have dedicated the past two years to painting the Greens as “dangerous extremists”.
Both of these factors should help Kat Theophenous retain the seat for Labor here.
Agree with Trent here. Northcote and Richmond have an older and wealthier left wing middle class voter. In both you need a fair bit of money to buy in – Labor is their safe bet. Albert Park and Prahran are similar. Agree that Brunswick would hold and Melbourne too. Footscray would seem a good chance and what seat is Sunshine in? There too.
Personally i think they should just do a Clive Palmer and preferrnce agains the incumbents
@Trent: “Northcote is exactly the type of area where the Greens went backwards at the federal election, similar to Richmond, where voters who once shifted from Labor to Greens seem to embracing Labor again”. Swings against the Greens at the federal election within Northcote were nowhere near the same scale as those in Richmond. There were double-digit 2CP swings against the Greens in half of the booths within Richmond at the federal election, while there’s only one booth within Northcote that recorded a 2CP swing against the Greens of more than 5%, which was in Alphington with a 6.29% 2CP swing against the Greens. In fact, multiple booths within Northcote recorded small 2CP swings towards the Greens, while there’s only one both within Richmond that swung towards the Greens. Therefore, I don’t think Richmond and Northcote are comparable in this sense.
Even a small swing towards the Greens won’t help them if the Liberals switch their preferences. That is the one and only reason this seat is anywhere near close.
The greens should be able to probably win Pascoe Vale and Footscray. 2 seats that swung towards then federally. The only thing that saved Khalil in Wills was the liberals disastrous campaign. Maybe Samantha Rathem will run in Pascie Vale?
@ Darth Vader
Pascoe Vale at a state level is harder as the most Muslim parts of Wills are Hadfield and Fawkner which are not in this seat and only tiny bit of Ultra Left Brunswick is here. If Liberal prefrence reverse it will be a comfortable victory for Cianflore
I think out of the four Labor vs Greens seats, Footscray would be the most at-risk, pending the Greens candidate and campaign.
If the federal election results are anything to go by, the Greens shouldn’t be too complacent by over-ambitiously targetting too many seats without sandbagging their own seats first.