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If the Greens are going to win another lower house seat I think Northcote is most likely given how close it was here.
I think Kat Theophenous is quite popular
If Libs preferenced Labor ahead of Greens in 2022 then based on 2018 preference flows then Labor wins by 4.4% according to Antony Green. I dont see the Greens vote increasing here, Labor seems to be doing well in Darebin at all levels of government. The only danger is if Libs preference Greens again then a small ALP to LIB swing will be enough to win the seat even if Greens drop slightly.
This was a Greens target seat in 2022. The Liberals told their voters to put Labor last so this would’ve helped the Greens come close.
The Greens didn’t make much headway at the federal election south of Bell Street. I think Ged Kearney has a solid personal vote. Also, there was a dip in Greens support in inner Melbourne where there’s a high percentage of affluent inner-city dwellers and working professionals.
Nimalan and I (and others) have discussed before how Northcote & Brunswick are quite different, despite looking similar on the surface and each having a similar history and pattern of gentrification.
Northcote is exactly the type of area where the Greens went backwards at the federal election, similar to Richmond, where voters who once shifted from Labor to Greens seem to embracing Labor again. Whereas Brunswick is a lot more militant/activist left-wing, where if anything, any movement from the Greens is more likely to go to Victorian Socialists (and back to the Greens) than to Labor.
I also think that regardless of how the Liberals direct their preferences this time, the LIB to GRN flows will likely be weaker than in 2022 just due to how much both the Liberals & groups like Advance have dedicated the past two years to painting the Greens as “dangerous extremists”.
Both of these factors should help Kat Theophenous retain the seat for Labor here.
Agree with Trent here. Northcote and Richmond have an older and wealthier left wing middle class voter. In both you need a fair bit of money to buy in – Labor is their safe bet. Albert Park and Prahran are similar. Agree that Brunswick would hold and Melbourne too. Footscray would seem a good chance and what seat is Sunshine in? There too.
Personally i think they should just do a Clive Palmer and preferrnce agains the incumbents
@Trent: “Northcote is exactly the type of area where the Greens went backwards at the federal election, similar to Richmond, where voters who once shifted from Labor to Greens seem to embracing Labor again”. Swings against the Greens at the federal election within Northcote were nowhere near the same scale as those in Richmond. There were double-digit 2CP swings against the Greens in half of the booths within Richmond at the federal election, while there’s only one booth within Northcote that recorded a 2CP swing against the Greens of more than 5%, which was in Alphington with a 6.29% 2CP swing against the Greens. In fact, multiple booths within Northcote recorded small 2CP swings towards the Greens, while there’s only one both within Richmond that swung towards the Greens. Therefore, I don’t think Richmond and Northcote are comparable in this sense.
Even a small swing towards the Greens won’t help them if the Liberals switch their preferences. That is the one and only reason this seat is anywhere near close.
The greens should be able to probably win Pascoe Vale and Footscray. 2 seats that swung towards then federally. The only thing that saved Khalil in Wills was the liberals disastrous campaign. Maybe Samantha Rathem will run in Pascie Vale?
@ Darth Vader
Pascoe Vale at a state level is harder as the most Muslim parts of Wills are Hadfield and Fawkner which are not in this seat and only tiny bit of Ultra Left Brunswick is here. If Liberal prefrence reverse it will be a comfortable victory for Cianflore
I think out of the four Labor vs Greens seats, Footscray would be the most at-risk, pending the Greens candidate and campaign.
If the federal election results are anything to go by, the Greens shouldn’t be too complacent by over-ambitiously targetting too many seats without sandbagging their own seats first.
Campbell Gove has once again been chosen as the Greens candidate for Northcote. I think Labor holds this seat. Liberals preferenced the Greens over Labor last time, and Labor still held on.
Yeah i expect Libs to reverse preference decision this time and Labor should hang on.
Is this the first candidate announcement out of all parties for the VIC 2026 election?
If the Liberals are smart they’ll preference the Greens above Labor agin so Labor can waste it’s resources on a seat like this and so can peal seats off Labor Like Bass, Pakenham and Hastings.
This area swung pretty hard to Labor federally. Will it at a state level too? The Greens don’t seem as obnoxious at a state level as they were Federally which is probably what hurt them, but the state Greens do seem pretty quiet and irrelevant.
@Adam I presume you’re a local in the area but do you think Kat Theophanous might be able to hold off any Green surge with any personal vote perhaps? Apparently from what I’ve heard (as a non-local) she’s pretty visible, popular and effective.
Ged Kearney was re-elected several times because she was seen as that compared to her predecessor which suggests an MP with a personal vote might be able to hold on.
Agree with other commenters. If Labor could hang on in 2022 with Liberal preferences giving the Greens a boost, I think they’re in good stead to hang on in 2026. Greens will need to put their resources into sandbagging Richmond and Melbourne and trying to win back Prahran.
The Greens have the big advantage that voters pissed off with the Allan Government can vote away from Labor and keep their votes on the Left. My view is that the Libs preferencing the Greens at state level would be a lot less controversial than at Federal level. On issues such as the public housing towers, Greens and Libs are largely aligned.
Dissatisfaction with Labor often will lead to an ALP to LIB swing among Centrist voters. The Danger for Labor is that if this happens and Libs preference Greens ahead of Labor then even if there is no change in Green primary or even a slight drop in the Green primary an increased Liberal primary even small can ensure Labor loses this seat. I dont think centrist 2022 Labor voters who are unhappy with the Allan Government about state debt/Crime will vote Greens even in Northcote they are likely to swing to Liberal. The Greens never crictise Labor for state of Budget, Crime etc. They would argue Labor should spend more not less.
In a nutshell it is Liberal preferences that will determine this seat not a ALP to GRN swing which i doubt will happen.
The Greens seem to be campaigning on the social housing being removed and other local issues. I’m not convinced that Labor is going to pick up seats in 2026 from Liberals or Greens.
@ SpaceFish
I dont think people are saying there is going to be a signicant GRN to ALP swing. Even at the federal election it was small but concentrated in the right places like Griffith, Brisbane, Macnamara, Melbourne and Cooper. If the Labor party picks up Greens held seats like Richmond it purley hinges on a reversal of Liberal preferences. If Liberal preferences remain the same in 2022 then then the Greens will likely increase 2CP in Richmond, Melbourne, Northcote etc because as i keep saying even if the Greens vote remains stagnant a ALP to LIB swing will improve the Greens 2CP.
The Greens and Libs both oppose the Public Housing Towers demolition but for totally opposite reasons so i dont think they are aligned at all. The Greens are concerned about removal of social housing and displacement of residents while the Libs oppose on fiscal grounds. It is is like when both Greens and Libs voted against CPRS or when both criticised the Labor party’s handling of the Middle East conflict. I also dont think Labor is going to pick up seats from Libs in 2026 Croydon and Polwarth (subject to boundaries) are 2 seats they missed out in 2022 they may win someday in the future but not in 2026.
There is only one public housing tower in Northcote so I can’t see that being a big local issue in the way it might be in, say, Richmond (a separate public housing redevelopment was an issue last time but that is now completed).
I expect this one will be pretty close again, the sitting MP is building a personal vote but the overall environment is less favourable to Labor. Liberal preferences may matter at the margin but there probably won’t be that many of them to distribute – in the federal election the Liberals were in single digits in many of the booths here.