Western Victoria – Victoria 2026

Incumbent MLCs

  • Jacinta Ermacora (Labor), since 2022
  • Sarah Mansfield (Greens), since 2022
  • Bev McArthur (Liberal), since 2018
  • Joe McCracken (Liberal), since 2022
  • Gayle Tierney (Labor), since 2006

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Bellarine ALP 8.5% Lara ALP 15.9% Ripon ALP 3.0%
Wendouree ALP 11.9% Lowan NAT 21.6% South Barwon ALP 9.8%
Eureka ALP 7.2% Melton ALP 4.6% South-West Coast LIB 8.0%
Geelong ALP 14.7% Polwarth LIB 1.8%

Western Victoria covers the greater Geelong region and stretches west to the South Australian border. In addition to Geelong, the region covers Ballarat, Warrnambool, Horsham, Colac, Bacchus Marsh, Melton and Torquay.

Eight of the seats in the region are held by Labor, two are held by the Liberal Party, and one is held by the Nationals.

History
The Western Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the 2006 election, the Liberal Party and Labor each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Democratic Labor Party’s Peter Kavanagh. The Nationals ran a separate ticket from the Liberal Party, which was unsuccessful.

In 2010, Kavanagh lost his seat to Nationals candidate David O’Brien, who was running on a joint ticket with the Liberal Party.

O’Brien lost in 2014 to James Purcell, running on the Vote 1 Local Jobs ticket.

One of the two Liberal MLCs was defeated in 2018, and Purcell stepped down to run for the lower house. These two seats were won by the Animal Justice Party and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.

The Liberal Party regained their second seat in 2022, and the Greens also won a seat in the region for the first time. Those seats came at the expense of Animal Justice and Hinch’s Justice, who both lost seats.

2022 result

Party Votes % Swing Quota
Labor 175,024 35.6 -2.7 2.134
Liberal/Nationals 133,221 27.1 -2.8 1.624
Greens 42,709 8.7 +1.2 0.521
Legalise Cannabis 24,763 5.0 +5.0 0.302
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 18,460 3.8 -0.7 0.225
Liberal Democrats 16,471 3.3 +0.7 0.201
One Nation 13,065 2.7 +2.7 0.159
Democratic Labour 10,696 2.2 +0.6 0.130
Family First 10,320 2.1 +2.1 0.126
Hinch’s Justice 8,697 1.8 -2.7 0.106
Animal Justice 8,660 1.8 -1.0 0.106
Sack Dan Andrews 5,012 1.0 +1.0 0.061
Victorian Socialists 3,656 0.7 0.0 0.045
United Australia 3,585 0.7 +0.7 0.044
Reason 3,475 0.7 -0.2 0.042
Angry Victorians 2,699 0.5 +0.5 0.033
Health Australia 2,607 0.5 -0.2 0.032
Companions and Pets 2,544 0.5 +0.5 0.031
Others 6,549 1.3 0.080
Informal 17,224 3.4

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats and the Liberal Party won one.

Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last seat:

  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.680
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.544
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.336
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.260
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.241
  • Ben Collyer (SFF) – 0.235
  • Julia McGrath (LDP) – 0.207
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.172
  • Dean Cronkwright (FF) – 0.155
  • Costa Di Biase (DLP) 0.133

DLP preferences mostly flowed Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party:

  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.681
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.545
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.386
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.337
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.241
  • Ben Collyer (SFF) – 0.236
  • Julia McGrath (LDP) – 0.208
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.172
  • Dean Cronkwright (FF) – 0.157

Family First preferences pushed One Nation from eighth to fifth:

  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.684
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.546
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.387
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.338
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.307
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.242
  • Ben Collyer (SFF) – 0.238
  • Julia McGrath (LDP) – 0.211

LDP preferences favoured Hinch’s Justice, pushing Grimley into second place:

  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.690
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.567
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.547
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.339
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.317
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.243
  • Ben Collyer (SFF) – 0.241

Shooters preferences pushed Grimley into the lead:

  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.764
  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.694
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.548
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.346
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.330
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.244

Animal Justice preferences mostly flowed to Legalise Cannabis:

  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.767
  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.695
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.585
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.540
  • Terry Pryse-Smith (ON) – 0.331

One Nation pushed the Liberals to very close to a quota:

  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.955
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.776
  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.586
  • Andrew Dowling (LGC) – 0.551

Legalise Cannabis preferences pushed the Greens to the lead. The Greens and the Liberal Party won the last two seats without a quota. The Liberal Party defeated Hinch’s Justice by 0.075 quotas.

  • Sarah Mansfield (GRN) – 0.986
  • Joe McCracken (LIB) – 0.957
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.882

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote across the region, and in eight out of eleven seats. The Coalition came first in the other three.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 21.4% in Lowan to 42.5% in Wendouree.

The Coalition primary vote ranged from 17.1% in Lara and 20.1% in Melton, all the way to 40% in Lowan.

Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Western Victoria region

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Expect Labor and the Coalition’s vote to just about flip, but not enough to change the outcome seat wise with the Greens probably gaining slightly too