South Barwon – Victoria 2026

ALP 9.8%

Incumbent MP
Darren Cheeseman (Independent), since 2018.

Geography
Western Victoria. South Barwon covers areas to the south of Geelong, including the southern suburbs of Geelong, Bellbrae, Moriac and Mount Duneed. A majority of the voters live in the City of Greater Geelong, and the electorate also covers eastern parts of Surf Coast Shire.

History
South Barwon was created for the 1976 election. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 until 2002, but has alternated more regularly over the last two decades.

South Barwon was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He had previously won the seat of Bellarine when it was created in 1967 and held it until it was abolished in 1976. He held South Barwon until his retirement in 1982.

The Liberal Party’s Harley Dickinson won South Barwon in 1982. He held the seat until 1992. In 1992 he resigned from the Liberal Party to contest South Barwon as an independent, but lost the seat to the Liberal candidate, Alister Paterson.

Paterson was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he lost to former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield. South Barwon’s demographics had changed as Geelong had grown, and become a marginal seat. Crutchfield was re-elected in 2006.

In 2010, Labor MP Michael Crutchfield was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Katos. Katos was re-elected in 2014.

Katos was defeated in 2018 by Labor candidate Darren Cheeseman, who had previously held the federal seat of Corangamite from 2007 until 2013. Cheeseman was re-elected in 2022, but in 2024 he was forced to resign from the Labor caucus and sit as an independent after facing allegations that he had harassed a staffer.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor holds South Barwon by a substantial margin, but without a sitting MP an outer suburban seat like this could be vulnerable to One Nation.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Darren Cheeseman Labor 19,969 44.2 +5.6
Andrew Katos Liberal 14,516 32.1 -6.5
Genevieve Dawson-Scott Greens 5,719 12.7 +4.2
Alan Barron Family First 1,338 3.0 +3.0
Leone Bates Democratic Labour 1,099 2.4 -0.6
Naomi Adams Animal Justice 1,076 2.4 -0.7
Jeynelle Marie Dean Hinch’s Justice 891 2.0 +2.0
Simone Tomlinson Freedom Party 576 1.3 +1.3
Informal 1,637 3.5

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Darren Cheeseman Labor 27,020 59.8 +6.8
Andrew Katos Liberal 18,164 40.2 -6.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: Highton, Grovedale and the south.

The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in Highton to 65.9% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.5% in Grovedale to 15.6% in Highton.

Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
Highton 15.6 59.0 6,198 13.7
Grovedale 13.5 63.6 4,472 9.9
South 14.0 65.9 4,185 9.3
Pre-poll 11.7 59.8 22,277 49.3
Other votes 12.0 55.1 8,088 17.9

Election results in South Barwon at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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16 COMMENTS

  1. When I last checked Darren Cheeseman was still plague levels of unpopularity for hanging on and basically wasting the seat, despite all the work that went into the level crossing removals here. Labor could be in for some punishment here and as Corangamite showed federally the strong trend towards them in this part of the state could be out of steam

  4. South Barwon booths in Corangamite were a mixed bag for the Libs. Some small swings towards them, but some big swings against them in a handful of booths. If Katos tries to get back in, on the back of his council stint, I’d expect the Libs to go backwards. They could try running TradieSoldierDud, but his federal campaign gained little traction, despite a big spend. I’m surprised we don’t yet know who Labor will be running. And no one is expecting Cheeseman will recontest.

  6. If Labor had a sitting MP i would be confident of a Labor hold but at this stage i only put as Lean Labor rather than Solid Labor.

  7. Premier Jacinta Allan has announced on social media that Rebecca Thistleton will be Labor’s candidate for South Barwon in the upcoming VIC state election. Rebecca Thistleton contested the seat of Melbourne in the 2022 VIC state election.

  8. Local Geelong councillor Ron Nelson has stepped down from his Deputy Mayor role in order to seek Liberal pre-selection here

  9. Fashion designer Libby Pettit is the Liberal candidate here. She was backed by Bev McArthur which helped her win preselection against Ron Nelson . She is based in Little River which is in the electorate of Lara but considering Rebecca Thistleton lived in inner city Melbourne up until recently this shouldn’t be an issue for her.

  10. Jess Wilson visited this seat and promised a High school for Mount Duneed. I actually feel this is more of a mortgage belt seat now with Torquay removed and very little coastline but a lot of new housing estates. The swing is this seat to Labor was bigger than any other seat in 2022 but that was a sophomure surge. All Labor 2022 pick ups with the notable exceptions of Nepean and Hawthorn has swings to them. I personally feel we should work on the 2018 margin in this seat which on current boundaries which is 3.0% the question realy who will vote Labor in 2026 that did not in 2018 so even the Eastern Suburbs seats which had a swing to Labor in 2022 should be analysed on that Question

    The Libs could run an Anti-SRL campaign here saying that Geelong Fast Rail was dumped in favour of it.

    https://vic.liberal.org.au/news/2023-11-16-labors-fast-rail-to-geelong-derails-before-it

  12. South Barwon has added 9,000 electors since the last election – it is now the sixth largest enrolment in Victoria – and looking at Google Earth, these people would be in the new housing estates being built around Armstrongs Creek and Mount Duneed. This adds a huge amount of volatility to this seat as well as the sitting Labor MP being disendorsed and the promised Torquay Hospital disappearing. It would seem that this could be prime One Nation territory despite it being a seat that the Liberals really need to win. Does anybody here have any local insights?

  14. Grovedale and the acreage out Moriac way has ONP friendly demographics to an extent, but otherwise you have more families settling here either as first generation migrants or Melbourne transplants looking for an affordable place to raise a family. Labor has invested in this area too rail-wise with the level crossing removals and addition of 2nd platforms on the stations between Geelong and WP. However that is countered by the conduct of the sitting MP and Labor’s attempt to replace him with a candidate from central Melbourne

    I would expect this seat to swing a few % more than the statewide swing average

  15. Taking educational attainment as the factor, Armstrongs Creek is bang on the Victorian average, Highton much higher but Grovedale and Charlemont lower. South Barwon is very Anglo and could be tradie country in the south. Could be a One Nation target.
    However, at the federal election:
    – One Nation polled poorly in Corangamite – was there a local factor compared to Corio next door where they did quite well?
    – The Greens polled in the high teens in the areas with new estates which would not necessarily fit the demographic. Also noting that the Greens did well around Torquay in Polwarth last time. Are the local Greens particularly active or was this a protest vote?

  16. @Redistributed, One Nation was on the top of the ballot list in Corio last election and regarding the large Green vote in the new estate, Torquay is a sea-changing community and these estate aren’t very far while still having more affordable homes alongside being near Deakin University so many public servants living there.