ALP 8.5%
Incumbent MP
Alison Marchant, since 2022.
Geography
Bellarine Peninsula and eastern suburbs of Geelong.
History
Bellarine was first created as an electoral district at the 1967 election. The seat was abolished in 1976, but was restored in 1985. It has alternated between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party.
Bellarine was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He held the seat until its abolition in 1976, when he moved to the neighbouring seat of South Barwon, which he held until his retirement in 1982.
When Bellarine was restored in 1985, it was won by the ALP’s Graham Ernst. He had previously held the seat of Geelong East since 1979, but his original seat was abolished in the 1985 redistribution.
Ernst held Bellarine until his defeat in 1992, when the Liberal Party’s Garry Spry won the seat.
Spry retired in 2002, and his seat was won by the ALP’s Lisa Neville, with a swing of 9.8%. Neville was re-elected four times and retired in 2022.
Labor candidate Alison Marchant won Bellarine in 2022.
- Alison Marchant (Labor)
- Callum Whitehead (Liberal)
- Dom Williams (Socialist Alliance)
Assessment
Bellarine is not a particularly safe Labor seat, and could be vulnerable to either the Liberal Party or One Nation if Labor’s low primary vote polling continues.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alison Marchant | Labor | 20,103 | 42.6 | -7.1 |
| Donnie Grigau | Liberal | 15,617 | 33.1 | -2.5 |
| Rachel Semmens | Greens | 5,537 | 11.7 | +2.6 |
| Sarah Fenton | Independent | 2,158 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Adam Cardilini | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 2.3 | -2.2 |
| Guy Manuell | Family First | 1,033 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Brett Anthony Ritchie | Hinch’s Justice | 770 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Kylee Muse | Freedom Party | 458 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Brendan Taylor | Angry Victorians | 389 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 2,156 | 4.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alison Marchant | Labor | 27,567 | 58.5 | -3.0 |
| Donnie Grigau | Liberal | 19,586 | 41.5 | +3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.4% in the north-east to 61% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.6% in the north-east to 19.4% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 9.6 | 59.4 | 7,958 | 16.9 |
| South | 19.4 | 61.0 | 6,366 | 13.5 |
| North-West | 11.7 | 60.4 | 3,635 | 7.7 |
| Pre-poll | 10.3 | 55.7 | 21,594 | 45.7 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 53.0 | 7,651 | 16.2 |
Election results in Bellarine at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Labor hold, the swing against Labor can be attributed to the retirement of a high profile minster. I think that due to the tree changers moving out this way Labor should have no troubles holding on here.
This is a seat on paper that the Liberals have the capacity to win if the party is more centrist and led by a more moderate leader. It reminds me of South Coast in NSW in terms of demographic change/sea changers and the fact Labor has improved here a lot as a result. And in a local perspective, Eltham and Macedon. This seat is quite affluent with a large retiree population, and while there is definitely a feel of fiscal conservatism being common here, this seat is quite socially progressive on issues like climate change, the Voice, and LGBT.
For now, Labor retain, but I expect a swing against them here.
@ James,
You are correct this is a socially progressive area and one which is quite irreligious. Like you pointed out Eltham, Macedon are simmilar i would also add Monbulk as a socially progressive highlly irreligious seat. Those 4 seats along with Ivanhoe are better suited for a moderate leader like Pesutto.
As posters above have alluded to, Wilson as the leader and a possible realignment back towards affluent centrist voters could see this seat come into play, even though the current margin is likely reflecting the departure of a long serving popular MP.
The reverse covid effect of Labor’s policies being endorsed by more affluent and progressive regional communities was definitely a factor in some of the smaller towns like Queenscliff with high retiree populations and could be liable to larger swings. On the other hand there are increased amounts of holiday homes and short stay rentals etc which locals are increasingly resenting so Labor’s policy work in that space could prove beneficial too. For now its a Labor hold at about 5% but the dial could move significantly over the next year
On these boundaries Libs would have won this seat in 2010. I still feel that Libs will fall short. Despite better boundaries for Libs and no sitting MP Labor actually did better in Bellarine in 2022 than 2006. I think Libs can bring this seat down to 2-3% with Jess Wilson and a moderate platform. Libs should try a two term strategy to win this seat and Eltham.