Polwarth – Victoria 2026

Rural anger at Labor is such that I think Riordon is going to run up the margins significantly in the western district/colac parts of this seat to the point where it’s no longer competitive this cycle. Labor’s WFH proposal has implications at the surf coast end of the seat however

Demographic change here is shifting this seat towards Labor.the question is not if Labor wins here but when?
I expect this seat will become ultra marginal within the next 2 elections

@mick the redistribution here will be interesting it will either make it safer for the Libs or push it more towards Labor

@maxim WFH?

@Darth Vader – WFH = working from home.

I dot think that’s gonna be an issue here Labor peaked in 2022 ans I can’t see that cha going with aging government and a leader who can’t hold the machine together. But the redistribution could make things interesting

2026 will be a worse result than 2022 for Labor. However, this seat is very polarised so i dont think it will be a big swing to Libs.

An electorate divided between the progressive coastal towns and Otways villages and the more conservative farming areas. Although in the federal election the latter area had many – not insignificant -swings against the Liberals throughout. In favour of progressive independent, Dyson.
Any future redistribution will likely see Polwarth continue to move/contract east, losing the more conservative areas around Cobden and Camperdown, to balance the growth in Torquay and Winchelsea.
If Riordan survives 2026, I can’t see him holding on in 2030.

I think any seat not won by labor in 2018 or 2022 will never be won by labor.

I would say Caulfield is a seat that is trending to Labor and could move into their column in the near future, but 2026 will certainly not be the year for it (Liberals will increase their margin there in 2026).

Otherwise though, I mostly agree with you. Polwarth and Croydon would be the other two that I think Labor could win at some point, but again not in 2026.

Labor threw the lot at Polwarth in 2022 with Hutch Hussein (had she been secretary or president of the Vic ALP) and they couldn’t win it. Currently the four Geelong seats are 25% over quota and that number will increase before the next redistribution due before the 2030 election. Eureka also comes down very close into Geelong as well. So there needs to be a fairly major adjustment around Geelong. Some sort of Surf Coast electorate may be the result with Polwarth pushed who knows where – maybe into Warrnambool with Lowan taking Portland.

1 of 2 things will happen either Polwarth moves back into golden Plains or moves further into south barwon. The former I think is a better option because that way the Geelong seats can be more focussed in geelong

The Geelong district could arguably be made much more compact within Geelong proper and allow South Barwon/Bellarine to cover more of the Surf Coast while Eureka and Polwarth take Banno and some of those outlying rural/hinterland areas to try and maintain a more consistent character within said seats.

Riordan is a strong MP in his home turf, one thing that doesn’t get discussed enough is how expensive the surf coast is getting, the younger millennials and progressives are finding it harder to afford to live there and families are struggling to make it work as permanent residents in towns that are basically built around the short stay/summer property economy. The areas of Torquay that are being developed as satellite suburbs to Geelong probably don’t function so much as progressive sea-changer/’alternative lifestyle’ hubs the way other towns along the GOR do I suspect

@Trent: Victorian Labor actually won Croydon’s predecessor Kilsyth in their 2002 landlside victory. I agree Labor could win Croydon or Polwarth in future landslide elections, but not in 2026.

@ Joseph,
Nether Portal calculated Croydon on Federal results from May and it would be a marginal Labor seat so demographically it is very possible in a future landslide along with Polwarth (subject to boundaries) but not 2026. The old Kilsyth had pro-Labor boundries as it did not go north of Maroondah Highway. Croydon Hills and Croydon North are the most affluent parts and were previously in Warrandyte when Bracks won Kilsyth in 2022. I strongly suspect Labor would have won Kilsyth in 2018/2022 on the old boundaries.

Agree the electorates around Geelong will need redrawing ahead of 2030, possibly significant redrawing. With current Geelong electorates needing to shrink – all contain growth areas, either Polwarth or Eureka will need to be brought closer to Geelong. Although I can’t see a version of Eureka that includes suburbs of both Ballarat and Geelong. Bannockburn perhaps.

Bellarine will likely be over 10% but is constricted by geography. It can only lose Leopold to Geelong or Barwon Heads to South Barwon. South Barwon will also be over 10%, it likely is already, so will need to shrink. A possible Surf Coast/Armstrong Creek/Waurn Ponds version of South Barwon might work, but that would leave Highton and Belmont needing to go somewhere – possibly a smaller, central Geelong version of Geelong.

Many people priced out of the coast are now renting and buying in Geelong’s south, particularly Belmont and Armstrong Creek/Mt Duneed, and even Winchelsea.

I’d agree with others here that this will probably be the last election for Polwarth in anything like its present form (and probably the last, full stop, VEC tends not to hold onto electorate names if there are major changes). A Surf Coast seat, with the rural areas of Polwarth going elsewhere, would seem the most logical outcome.

My plan is to shrink Bellarine, South Barwon and Geelong. By drawing Geelong further into both South Barwon and Belllarine. Then having Lara shed its more regional.parts including its namesake. And moving further into Geelong. Eureka would lose Golden Plains to either Polwarth (where it was previously) or Lara (rename pending). Lara would then combine with the parts of Werribee west of the Werribee river to form a seat called Little River. Eureka can be focused on Moorabool and Bacchus Marsh along with the leftover parts of Ballarat.

I agree with the above commentary that Polwarth is trending left. It used to be a reliably Liberal seat.

On the topic of real estate prices, Surf Coast and Apollo Bay are attractive to cashed up boomers and retirees and those seeking a lifestyle change. High-earning WFH professionals can afford to live here whilst travelling to Melbourne once or twice a week. Younger adults and tourism and hospitality workers have been priced out.

I’d say a teal would have a better chance than Labor does in 2026.

This seat will depend on the redistribution o l i imagine it will lose ilsome western parts to to sourth west coadt it will eitjer take the goldne plains back or moe further into south barwon.

This is definitely not a teal prospect in 2026. It is difficult enough for them to cut through in what should be metropolitan heartland considering the issues focus and funding difficulties in state elections. Large rural territory only exacerbates it and the baseline vote for a teal just isn’t that high here.

I agree with Adda. This seat is very polarised and has conservative rural areas along with some deep Green areas like Aireys Inlet. Teals generally do well where there is no prospect of a Labor/Greens Victory. Torquay would have moderate centrist voters. However, Torquay while affluent is not super wealthy where people need to hold their nose to vote Labor and have a class based aversion to Labor. A Teal ran in Wannon as there is no prospect of a Labor/Greens victory so like Cowper they benefit from tactical voting.