LIB 1.8%
Incumbent MP
Richard Riordan, since 2015.
Geography
Southwestern Victoria. Polwarth covers regional areas between Geelong and Warrnambool including the towns of Anglesea, Lorne, Lismore, Colac, Camperdown and Torquay. Polwarth covers the entirety of the Colac Otway Shire, and most of the Corangamite and Surf Coast shires.
History
Polwarth has existed as an electoral district in the Legislative Assembly since 1889. In that time it has never been held by the Labor Party. Except for the 1940s, when it was held by the Country Party, the Liberal Party and its predecessors have held the seat ever since the seat first elected party-aligned members in 1911.
Nationalist Party member James McDonald won Polwarth at a 1917 by-election. He served as a minister from 1924 to 1927, and held Polwarth until his death in 1933.
Allan McDonald, nephew of the former member, won the seat for the United Australia Party in 1933. He held the seat until 1940, when he stepped down to run for the federal seat of Corangamite. He held Corangamite until his death in 1953, serving as a prominent member of the conservative Opposition through the 1940s.
Edward Guye of the Country Party won Polwarth in 1940. He joined the Liberal Country Party in 1949, and served as a minister from 1949 to 1950. Guye held the seat until 1958, when he was succeeded by Thomas Darcy, also of the Liberal Country Party, which later was renamed the Liberal Party. Darcy served as a minister from 1964 to 1967, and then retired in 1970.
Darcy was succeeded in 1970 by Liberal candidate Cecil Burgin. He held Polwarth until 1985.
Polwarth was won in 1985 by Ian Smith. He had served as Member for Warrnambool from 1967 to 1983, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1970 to 1982. He had resigned from Parliament following the defeat of the Liberal Party in 1982, but returned at the next election in Polwarth.
He returned as Minister for Finance from 1992 to 1995, and retired from Parliament in 1999.
The Liberal Party preselected Terry Mulder to run in Polwarth in 1999. He was challenged by retired footballer Paul Couch, who ran for the Nationals. He was considered to be a threat to the Liberal hold on Polwarth, but he failed to overtake the ALP, and his preferences helped Mulder easily win the seat.
Mulder was easily re-elected in 2002, and became a member of the shadow cabinet. He was considered to be a leadership contender prior to the 2006 state election.
Terry Mulder was re-elected again in 2006 and 2010. Mulder served as Minister for Public Transport and Roads from 2010 until 2014, and retired following the coalition government’s defeat in 2014.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Richard Riordan. Riordan was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
- Jesse Holden (Greens)
- Hutch Hussein (Labor)
- Richard Riordan (Liberal)
Assessment
While Labor has come close to winning this seat in the past, this is unlikely to happen in 2026. One Nation may, however, have hopes of taking the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Riordan | Liberal | 19,540 | 42.5 | -3.3 |
| Hutch Hussein | Labor | 13,484 | 29.3 | -1.4 |
| Hilary McAllister | Greens | 7,661 | 16.7 | +6.0 |
| Denes C. Borsos | Independent | 2,017 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Hollie Hunter | Family First | 1,166 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Elisha Atchison | Animal Justice | 1,101 | 2.4 | -1.3 |
| Joseph Vincent Remenyi | Hinch’s Justice | 1,033 | 2.2 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 1,949 | 4.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Riordan | Liberal | 23,823 | 51.8 | -0.2 |
| Hutch Hussein | Labor | 22,179 | 48.2 | +0.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east, and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (57.7%) and the west (68.4%), while Labor polled 60.4% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in the west to 26.8% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 26.8 | 39.6 | 7,037 | 15.3 |
| Central | 15.1 | 57.7 | 5,407 | 11.7 |
| West | 7.8 | 68.4 | 5,398 | 11.7 |
| Pre-poll | 15.2 | 50.9 | 22,660 | 49.2 |
| Other votes | 19.6 | 49.3 | 5,594 | 12.1 |
Election results in Polwarth at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Rural anger at Labor is such that I think Riordon is going to run up the margins significantly in the western district/colac parts of this seat to the point where it’s no longer competitive this cycle. Labor’s WFH proposal has implications at the surf coast end of the seat however
Demographic change here is shifting this seat towards Labor.the question is not if Labor wins here but when?
I expect this seat will become ultra marginal within the next 2 elections
@mick the redistribution here will be interesting it will either make it safer for the Libs or push it more towards Labor
@maxim WFH?
@Darth Vader – WFH = working from home.
I dot think that’s gonna be an issue here Labor peaked in 2022 ans I can’t see that cha going with aging government and a leader who can’t hold the machine together. But the redistribution could make things interesting
2026 will be a worse result than 2022 for Labor. However, this seat is very polarised so i dont think it will be a big swing to Libs.
An electorate divided between the progressive coastal towns and Otways villages and the more conservative farming areas. Although in the federal election the latter area had many – not insignificant -swings against the Liberals throughout. In favour of progressive independent, Dyson.
Any future redistribution will likely see Polwarth continue to move/contract east, losing the more conservative areas around Cobden and Camperdown, to balance the growth in Torquay and Winchelsea.
If Riordan survives 2026, I can’t see him holding on in 2030.
I think any seat not won by labor in 2018 or 2022 will never be won by labor.
I would say Caulfield is a seat that is trending to Labor and could move into their column in the near future, but 2026 will certainly not be the year for it (Liberals will increase their margin there in 2026).
Otherwise though, I mostly agree with you. Polwarth and Croydon would be the other two that I think Labor could win at some point, but again not in 2026.
Labor threw the lot at Polwarth in 2022 with Hutch Hussein (had she been secretary or president of the Vic ALP) and they couldn’t win it. Currently the four Geelong seats are 25% over quota and that number will increase before the next redistribution due before the 2030 election. Eureka also comes down very close into Geelong as well. So there needs to be a fairly major adjustment around Geelong. Some sort of Surf Coast electorate may be the result with Polwarth pushed who knows where – maybe into Warrnambool with Lowan taking Portland.
1 of 2 things will happen either Polwarth moves back into golden Plains or moves further into south barwon. The former I think is a better option because that way the Geelong seats can be more focussed in geelong
The Geelong district could arguably be made much more compact within Geelong proper and allow South Barwon/Bellarine to cover more of the Surf Coast while Eureka and Polwarth take Banno and some of those outlying rural/hinterland areas to try and maintain a more consistent character within said seats.
Riordan is a strong MP in his home turf, one thing that doesn’t get discussed enough is how expensive the surf coast is getting, the younger millennials and progressives are finding it harder to afford to live there and families are struggling to make it work as permanent residents in towns that are basically built around the short stay/summer property economy. The areas of Torquay that are being developed as satellite suburbs to Geelong probably don’t function so much as progressive sea-changer/’alternative lifestyle’ hubs the way other towns along the GOR do I suspect
@Trent: Victorian Labor actually won Croydon’s predecessor Kilsyth in their 2002 landlside victory. I agree Labor could win Croydon or Polwarth in future landslide elections, but not in 2026.
@ Joseph,
Nether Portal calculated Croydon on Federal results from May and it would be a marginal Labor seat so demographically it is very possible in a future landslide along with Polwarth (subject to boundaries) but not 2026. The old Kilsyth had pro-Labor boundries as it did not go north of Maroondah Highway. Croydon Hills and Croydon North are the most affluent parts and were previously in Warrandyte when Bracks won Kilsyth in 2022. I strongly suspect Labor would have won Kilsyth in 2018/2022 on the old boundaries.
Agree the electorates around Geelong will need redrawing ahead of 2030, possibly significant redrawing. With current Geelong electorates needing to shrink – all contain growth areas, either Polwarth or Eureka will need to be brought closer to Geelong. Although I can’t see a version of Eureka that includes suburbs of both Ballarat and Geelong. Bannockburn perhaps.
Bellarine will likely be over 10% but is constricted by geography. It can only lose Leopold to Geelong or Barwon Heads to South Barwon. South Barwon will also be over 10%, it likely is already, so will need to shrink. A possible Surf Coast/Armstrong Creek/Waurn Ponds version of South Barwon might work, but that would leave Highton and Belmont needing to go somewhere – possibly a smaller, central Geelong version of Geelong.
Many people priced out of the coast are now renting and buying in Geelong’s south, particularly Belmont and Armstrong Creek/Mt Duneed, and even Winchelsea.
I’d agree with others here that this will probably be the last election for Polwarth in anything like its present form (and probably the last, full stop, VEC tends not to hold onto electorate names if there are major changes). A Surf Coast seat, with the rural areas of Polwarth going elsewhere, would seem the most logical outcome.
My plan is to shrink Bellarine, South Barwon and Geelong. By drawing Geelong further into both South Barwon and Belllarine. Then having Lara shed its more regional.parts including its namesake. And moving further into Geelong. Eureka would lose Golden Plains to either Polwarth (where it was previously) or Lara (rename pending). Lara would then combine with the parts of Werribee west of the Werribee river to form a seat called Little River. Eureka can be focused on Moorabool and Bacchus Marsh along with the leftover parts of Ballarat.
I agree with the above commentary that Polwarth is trending left. It used to be a reliably Liberal seat.
On the topic of real estate prices, Surf Coast and Apollo Bay are attractive to cashed up boomers and retirees and those seeking a lifestyle change. High-earning WFH professionals can afford to live here whilst travelling to Melbourne once or twice a week. Younger adults and tourism and hospitality workers have been priced out.
I’d say a teal would have a better chance than Labor does in 2026.
This seat will depend on the redistribution o l i imagine it will lose ilsome western parts to to sourth west coadt it will eitjer take the goldne plains back or moe further into south barwon.
This is definitely not a teal prospect in 2026. It is difficult enough for them to cut through in what should be metropolitan heartland considering the issues focus and funding difficulties in state elections. Large rural territory only exacerbates it and the baseline vote for a teal just isn’t that high here.
I agree with Adda. This seat is very polarised and has conservative rural areas along with some deep Green areas like Aireys Inlet. Teals generally do well where there is no prospect of a Labor/Greens Victory. Torquay would have moderate centrist voters. However, Torquay while affluent is not super wealthy where people need to hold their nose to vote Labor and have a class based aversion to Labor. A Teal ran in Wannon as there is no prospect of a Labor/Greens victory so like Cowper they benefit from tactical voting.
The Greens have announced their candidate for this seat, more than a year out from the election. According to the article, this seat has the highest Green vote outside of metro Melbourne. https://timesnewsgroup.com.au/surfcoasttimes/news/greens-name-local-environmentalist-jesse-holden-for-polwarth-seat/
If in the future there was a Surf Coast electorate then based on 2022 results, the Greeens could be potentially competitive. We need to see in 2026 whether their big gain in 2022 is sustained. In 2018, Labor promised a new hospital for Torquay. News reports in the last few weeks indicate that it has just ‘disappeared’ – locals should hold Labor to account for this. Could hurt in South Barwon too.
Potentially alp win 2 elections on
Redistributed my solution ATM involves polwarth taking in the remainder of the surf coast
@ John
Only a small part of Surf Coast is not in this seat and the parts in South Barwon are rural with no booth so probably will not make much of a difference to the margin in Polwarth.
South Barwon is growing rapidly so will need to shrink.
That’s still my plan to move it up to the lga boundary
i would support that John will Polwarth need to shed any current areas?
I’m also thinking put in most of the golden plains. From geelong
I am looking to move parts of the western areas into south coast
Greens appear to be having a crack at this one with a candidate announced quite early, with Labor probably not in much position to mount a proper campaign (given they have a few better targets and heaps to defend) could the Greens enter the 2CP with a big vote at Labor’s expense in the surf coast? Think the trouble is that too much of this seat is still proper rural and the surf coast end is becoming quite suburban in parts which buffers the Labor vote, however if the Greens ran hard on a more explicitly environmental platform (the announced candidate is a climate science guru) I think they’d do pretty well.
Either way I still find it very hard to see a scenario where Riordan doesn’t see a swing to him, let alone lose the seat this cycle.
Greens being in the 2cp will probably help out the libs because labor prefernces are weaker to greens then greens are to labor.
The Greens will certainly increase their primary vote, there is a chance they could out poll Labor simply because they are busy sandbagging other seats.
For the Green to make it in the ttp they need to out poll Labor in all the costal towns which is difficult but not impossible.
Greens also have far more important seats that they can win. And will prolly need to sandbag richmond
I suspect Richard riordan will retire. He is the only Liberal MLA (other than John pesutto) without a role in the shadow ministry that hasnt officially announced their retirement . So im suspecting either thats why he wasnt given one or could motivate him to retire.
He might be wanting a shot at Government too though – he’s only ever been in opposition as an MP