Ripon – Victoria 2026

Letting the Nats have a go at Ripon and Benambra weakens future Liberal claims in Wannon and Indi. Should the Nats win Benambra then Indi would be almost wall to wall National at state level basically handing the leading coalition in the seat to the Nats in future. I am not too sure how the Nats would fly in Albury – Wodonga – it has always been Liberal not National territory.

Well technically Ripon would be on a labor opponent. And the libs and nats may have to deal with a real again also so it’s not wasted resources. And they won’t spend resources fighting each other. And certainly won’t spend resources fighting each other over Benambra. The nats have a very low chance of winning Benambra. And it won’t be a lib vs nat contest anyway there is a significant enough left vote to push either the real or labor into the count.

The nats would be better placed at winning Farrer then Indi the last few nats candidates in Indi since Mirabella was beaten ahvent got off the ground.

John the make-up of the 2PP isn’t important, it’s the fact that resources that could be spent on Bendigo West, Box Hill or Sydenham suddenly get doubled up for the Coalition in seats they will most likely win anyway. If they sat down and allocated each other seats for maximum coverage against Labor (something I doubt would happen) then you would not see 3-cornered contests anywhere despite what your thoughts about Nats prospects in Benambra etc

Ilexcept they aren’t winning bendigo west not even if jacinta Allen shoots someone in federation square in broad daylight. The benefit is they have two candidates tag teaming labor for Ripon. The coalition agreement clearly exists so any uncoocupied seat can be contested by either party.theybarent gonna double up resources fighting each other though. Nats wont win Benambra I guarantee that.

Only in nsw do they have allocated seats due to opv

There’s no benefit in ‘tag teaming’ as it simply results in leakage and duplication of resources to do the same thing – unseat a Labor MP.

It’s not about Bendigo West (I agree they won’t win but what if Labor got nervous and had to sandbag?) it’s about the coalition removing as many Labor MPs as possible and any strategy which sees them spending their own limited resources on trying to outcompete each other rather than their actual opponent is an impediment to them forming government. I am aware of the Coalition agreement but the point I am making is quite separate

Actually there is because your giving voters two choices other then labor. Some people are willing to vote nats but wouldn’t be caught dead voting liberal. It’s not different to greens and labor targeting the libs seats the only difference is they are taking awipes at each other as well. More resources means more likely the seat will fall. The nats have a smaller focus and as we saw in bendigo federally they can dump resources on a seat. Libs have a duty to the voters to try and win the seat also. The purpose of the tag team is to work work together to defeat your opponent instead of just taking them on 1 v 1. As we saw in morwell, mildura and shepparton in 2022

Its just like in the formula 1. Your team races 2 drivers. Your racing against each other but the ultimate goal is for at least one of you to come first and as long as your team wins you win.

If the Coalition think there is more to gain out of tag teaming in a seat like Ripon or Benambra then they mustn’t be optimistic elsewhere

How did that tag team work in Bullwinkel though? Has its drawbacks

Well ripen is a tag team against labor. A seat that barely swings so yea. Benambra they’re both just trying to win it. Nothing wrong with that. It’s a safe seat for the right so they’ll just both try a d put their case forward. They aren’t gonna dump endless resources on it though. And Bullwinkel is a poor example. Libs and Nats aren’t in a coalition in WA and so they were just each in it for themselves. We saw both libs and nats going at it for about a dozen seats in the WA election. Even in seats they already held.

We’re still unsure if the Nationals will run to take advantage of the seat’s low margin and Labor’s unpopularity. It’s possible that both the Liberals and Nationals run here. Given the current political climate, it could be a risk because of vote splitting and over-saturation in campaigning.

Ripon overlaps with contains parts of the federal electorates of Ballarat and Mallee. Looking at the 2025 federal election results, some of One Nation’s best showings in Victoria were in these two seats. ONP got double-digit primary votes at some smaller, more isolated booths.

Last year, I would’ve put this as a Coalition pickup. With the recent surge in One Nation’s popularity, there are two more possibilities:
1. Labor hangs on as the right-wing vote is split and not all preferences flow back to the other Coalition party or One Nation.
2. One Nation beats the Liberals/Nationals after preferences (from minor right-wing or populist parties) and then gets over the line.

The Nats will almost certainly run here – Jo Armstrong has already stepped down as Ararat mayor in preparation

On current polling the split Coalition vote would almost certainly allow ON to enter the count ahead of them, I don’t think Labor will do well enough on primary to beat any 2CP opponent

Labor are losing Ripon, the question is just who do they lose it to? 3 way race between LIB, NAT & ONP I think.

WIth respect to Ripon i can see ONP taking votes from both Libs and Labor. I think Labor/Greens should do ok in tree change areas. Labor will miss out on the chance to represent this seat for more than 1 term. However, i think longer term there is a chance to pick up maybe in a decade again subject to boundaries