Ripon – Victoria 2026

Letting the Nats have a go at Ripon and Benambra weakens future Liberal claims in Wannon and Indi. Should the Nats win Benambra then Indi would be almost wall to wall National at state level basically handing the leading coalition in the seat to the Nats in future. I am not too sure how the Nats would fly in Albury – Wodonga – it has always been Liberal not National territory.

Well technically Ripon would be on a labor opponent. And the libs and nats may have to deal with a real again also so it’s not wasted resources. And they won’t spend resources fighting each other. And certainly won’t spend resources fighting each other over Benambra. The nats have a very low chance of winning Benambra. And it won’t be a lib vs nat contest anyway there is a significant enough left vote to push either the real or labor into the count.

The nats would be better placed at winning Farrer then Indi the last few nats candidates in Indi since Mirabella was beaten ahvent got off the ground.

John the make-up of the 2PP isn’t important, it’s the fact that resources that could be spent on Bendigo West, Box Hill or Sydenham suddenly get doubled up for the Coalition in seats they will most likely win anyway. If they sat down and allocated each other seats for maximum coverage against Labor (something I doubt would happen) then you would not see 3-cornered contests anywhere despite what your thoughts about Nats prospects in Benambra etc

Ilexcept they aren’t winning bendigo west not even if jacinta Allen shoots someone in federation square in broad daylight. The benefit is they have two candidates tag teaming labor for Ripon. The coalition agreement clearly exists so any uncoocupied seat can be contested by either party.theybarent gonna double up resources fighting each other though. Nats wont win Benambra I guarantee that.

Only in nsw do they have allocated seats due to opv

There’s no benefit in ‘tag teaming’ as it simply results in leakage and duplication of resources to do the same thing – unseat a Labor MP.

It’s not about Bendigo West (I agree they won’t win but what if Labor got nervous and had to sandbag?) it’s about the coalition removing as many Labor MPs as possible and any strategy which sees them spending their own limited resources on trying to outcompete each other rather than their actual opponent is an impediment to them forming government. I am aware of the Coalition agreement but the point I am making is quite separate

Actually there is because your giving voters two choices other then labor. Some people are willing to vote nats but wouldn’t be caught dead voting liberal. It’s not different to greens and labor targeting the libs seats the only difference is they are taking awipes at each other as well. More resources means more likely the seat will fall. The nats have a smaller focus and as we saw in bendigo federally they can dump resources on a seat. Libs have a duty to the voters to try and win the seat also. The purpose of the tag team is to work work together to defeat your opponent instead of just taking them on 1 v 1. As we saw in morwell, mildura and shepparton in 2022

Its just like in the formula 1. Your team races 2 drivers. Your racing against each other but the ultimate goal is for at least one of you to come first and as long as your team wins you win.

If the Coalition think there is more to gain out of tag teaming in a seat like Ripon or Benambra then they mustn’t be optimistic elsewhere

How did that tag team work in Bullwinkel though? Has its drawbacks

Well ripen is a tag team against labor. A seat that barely swings so yea. Benambra they’re both just trying to win it. Nothing wrong with that. It’s a safe seat for the right so they’ll just both try a d put their case forward. They aren’t gonna dump endless resources on it though. And Bullwinkel is a poor example. Libs and Nats aren’t in a coalition in WA and so they were just each in it for themselves. We saw both libs and nats going at it for about a dozen seats in the WA election. Even in seats they already held.

We’re still unsure if the Nationals will run to take advantage of the seat’s low margin and Labor’s unpopularity. It’s possible that both the Liberals and Nationals run here. Given the current political climate, it could be a risk because of vote splitting and over-saturation in campaigning.

Ripon overlaps with contains parts of the federal electorates of Ballarat and Mallee. Looking at the 2025 federal election results, some of One Nation’s best showings in Victoria were in these two seats. ONP got double-digit primary votes at some smaller, more isolated booths.

Last year, I would’ve put this as a Coalition pickup. With the recent surge in One Nation’s popularity, there are two more possibilities:
1. Labor hangs on as the right-wing vote is split and not all preferences flow back to the other Coalition party or One Nation.
2. One Nation beats the Liberals/Nationals after preferences (from minor right-wing or populist parties) and then gets over the line.

The Nats will almost certainly run here – Jo Armstrong has already stepped down as Ararat mayor in preparation

On current polling the split Coalition vote would almost certainly allow ON to enter the count ahead of them, I don’t think Labor will do well enough on primary to beat any 2CP opponent

Labor are losing Ripon, the question is just who do they lose it to? 3 way race between LIB, NAT & ONP I think.

WIth respect to Ripon i can see ONP taking votes from both Libs and Labor. I think Labor/Greens should do ok in tree change areas. Labor will miss out on the chance to represent this seat for more than 1 term. However, i think longer term there is a chance to pick up maybe in a decade again subject to boundaries

Jo Armstrong, Ararat Rural City Councillor, former Mayor and former Deputy Mayor, as been selected as the Nationals candidate for Ripon. https://vic.nationals.org.au/media-releases/jo-armstrong-selected-as-nationals-candidate-for-ripon/

Word is that Labor feel despite the margin and statewide situation that they still remain in the hunt here, Martha Haylett has worked the district fairly well and often deviates a little from party policy on issues such as a proposed data centre in Miners Rest and the volunteer services levy, however resentment at the government is running pretty high here, not sure she can overcome that sentiment.

Labor are vulnerable here because they lack a strong preference source with the Greens and LW minors generally weak here, whereas the right will run 3 candidates capable of winning the seat, so Labor losing more than 4-5% primary really makes life difficult. Their hope might be that the Coalition parties leak preferences and ONP ends up in the 2CP and ultimately leakage hands them back the seat, I’d say there are more defendable seats elsewhere in Ballarat and Geelong that could use the party resources

The Fin Review article that gives all the MRP results mentions that Labor still feel they are in the hunt and the seat will get extra resources. Maybe they think they can do a Bradbury and skate through on leakages (please pardon the unfortunate metaphor). It might also be because it is their last rural seat. Martha Haylett might have built up a personal vote but it is hard to see how she can survive what is going to be a bloody affair for Labor especially in the bush. If they are going to sandbag here, they are either going to sandbag all of the Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong seats or they written some off – South Barwon? Eureka?.
On the MRP poll generally, it seems that lots of seats are identified as ‘at risk’ but Labor would hold .The tables Labor plus Greens vote only adding up to 40% or so. It all seems a bit odd or they are assuming very big Coalition or ON leakages.

Is this a seat where the Commonwealth Games promise inflated the Labor margin last election? There were proposed venues in Ballarat, Creswick and Bendigo. I believe the promise helped Labor sandbag in seats like Ripon.

I think the general anger in the bush plus the broken promise would come back to bite Labor. The recent interest in ONP in the bush would also hurt Labor, especially since ONP could potentially take votes off other minor right-wing parties. This ensures that ONP doesn’t have to rely much on preferences and also limits vote-splitting or votes leaking to Labor, from parties like FF or SFF or a Freedom party.

Skipton farmer Megan Read has been announced as the Liberal candidate for Ripon, which means Ripon will be contested by both the Liberals and the Nationals, creating an interesting and complex four-way contest between One Nation, Labor, Liberal, and National parties, which will be the four parties in the 4CP.

I predict that One Nation and Labor will have the highest primary votes and One Nation will outpoll both the Liberals and Nationals on primary votes, which means that the Liberals and Nationals will need to rely on each other’s preferences in order to make the 2CP, and whoever makes the 2CP wins on preferences, regardless of whether Labor or One Nation is in the 2CP against the Coalition.

Since One Nation will inevitably poll best in isolated outposts far away from Ballarat, such as St Arnaud, Wedderburn, Inglewood and Dunolly, and Labor’s stronghold in areas close to Ballart are hard to break, the Coalition has chosen to focus its Ripon campaign on the regional population centres of Ararat and Maryborough, hoping support in these two towns will help either one of the Coalition candidates make the 2CP.

According to a recent RedBridge Victorian state poll, the Legislative Assembly primary vote for seats in the Western Victoria Region were ON 30, ALP 28, L/NP 19, GRN 13, OTH 10. The Coalition vote is critically low, far below that of Labor and One Nation. This means the Coalition will likely be excluded in all seats in the region that does not have a sitting Coalition MP, possibly with the exception of Ripon that could still become a Coalition vs One Nation contest. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1QncHzxkya/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Kos Samaras said according to the poll, the Labor primary vote in Ripon will be in the low 20s. Considering Greens preferences, the Labor 3CP will likely be in the high 20s. This means the combined Liberal and National primary votes probably need to be in the 30s for the higher-polling Coalition candidate to stay in 2CP and win the seat. This could be difficult because the Liberal primary vote was only 36.1% in the 2022 state election and a significant proportion of the Liberal vote will shift to One Nation. In this sense One Nation is the favourite to win Ripon, but the Coalition can still win if Labor polls very badly and falls out of 2CP.

The Coalition vote in Ripon will probably be higher than the Western Victoria average, with the Coalition vote in safe or fairly safe Labor seats including Eureka, Wendouree, Lara, Geelong, Bellarine and South Barwon below the average for the region. However, the Coalition still needs a very big effort to poll 30% in Ripon without a sitting MP. For these reasons I think One Nation will be the favourite here.

Interestingly the Liberals are seemingly running dead here while the Nationals are actively campaigning. There has been no update from Megan Read’s Facebook page for the whole of July. It makes sense for the Liberals to run dead, because the Nationals have a better chance of making 2CP if they finish ahead of the Liberals than vice versa, because the preference flow from the Liberals to the Nationals is stronger than the other way around, however that raises the question as to why the Liberals bother to run in the first place.

Tellingly, although the Nationals have never represented Bendigo East or Ripon and the Liberal Party have been the main non-Labor Party in both Bendigo East and Ripon, the Liberal Party is either running dead or not running at all in both electorates in favour of the Nationals. It seems that even the Liberals have to admit that the Nationals brand is much stronger and more popular than the Liberal brand in regional and rural Victoria.

As for the prospect of Labor retaining Ripon, I believe Labor has little chance of retaining the seat. Since One Nation will easily outpoll Labor and will likely top the primary vote, Labor will need a flood, not just a leakage of preferences to win. Coalition preferences need to favour Labor for Labor to retain Ripon, which won’t happen. I agree that there are more defendable seats elsewhere in Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong that Labor Party resources would be much better placed in.