Ripon – Victoria 2026

Was told that at least 8 people have come out of the woodwork seeking Liberal preselection in this seat, only way Haylett holds is if she defects to the crossbench IMO, Nats may also consider running here

I think the Nats would be fabourites here.

Id put my money on Nats gain unless Louise staley recontests

@dragons agreed the only way Libs are a chance is if Stanley reconnects otherwise nats should win here

I’m not sure the Nats have much in the way of local branches or even a candidate in mind yet though?

There was a media article a while ago about the Nats running Jo Armstrong, she’s apparently their state party president but a neville nobody in the context of the electorate. Can’t see her setting the world on fire or achieving much.

Hmm, she’s based in Ballarat I think – potentially a better fit for Eureka

If these farmers are from Ripon. Labor are screwed

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CFy4x8P3d/

These farmers (sic) are the Victorian National Party and they are protesting against farmers receiving income from hosting energy infrastructure on their properties.
Interesting, the tractor driving senator lives in the inner suburbs of Melbourne. Another examples of the Nationals driving themselves to extinction.

Labor certainly faces challenges here that they dont in Pakenham or the Narre Warrens. However, in Ripon Labor does well in the townships while Libs in rural areas.

Either way based on the scenes in Ballarat. Labor is probably gon a lose Ripon. Libs might do well in Wendouree as well

@ John
As i mentioned Wendouree before to you is entirely urban no farms so transmission lines, Emergency service leavy are not relevant. I have always said Eureka is a seat to watch.

Still Ballarat swung to the libs in a year when the libs fell over themselves federally.
Eureka should be close. Libs will need it to form government. The redistribution will probably lose golden Plains and gain the rest of Moorabool from melton

Yes i think a good chance of Eureka being picked up. However, no redistibution in 2026. Wendouree needs an 11% swing i think Libs will get 4% in Wendoree and 6-8% in Eureka.

With serious effort and decent candidates all of Ripon, Eureka and Bendigo East are winnable – even with the Premier holding the latter. It is not just power lines but the fire services levy and road conditions major issues in regional Victoria. It could be the inverse of 1999 coming.

Agreed the libs will need Ripon and Eureka to win government. Bendigo East not so much as it’s one of the bonus seats that only the right candidate would get up in. There is a big social divide in Bendigo and most of the less well off vote tends to solidify behind Labor

Local media reporting that Ararat Mayor (and VIC Nats party president) Jo Armstrong is almost certain to nominate as Nats candidate, Libs have begun pre-selection with 5 potential nominees.

Could become a question of which Coalition party makes the 2PP – Nats will have some territory to defend but is any of it really under threat now that INDs have been toppled in Shep and Mildura. Can imagine they might throw a fair bit at this seat. Expect the rural towns to the north and west in this seat to swing substantially to the Coalition and it becomes a question of how much Labor can hold the fort in the friendlier towns, (Creswick, Sythesdale, Clunes etc) the growth areas around Lucas in Ballarat’s West and the larger towns of Ararat and Maryborough.

The nats would be better in here. Te seat doesn’t generally swing in a 2pp. However there is some uproar against the Allen government in this area so it could be a once in a generation swing. We’ve seen what can happen when the nats throw resources a seat. Not only in Bendigo. But at the last state election they outpermed the libs and took 2 seats from Independents. Unlike labor and the libs they apcan really focus there efforts. On a particular seat rather then having to spread their resources across every seat. Nats also provide an option for people who dont want labor but can’t bring themselves to vote liberal.

This is Liberal/National must win if they want to have any chance of governing in the future.

A lot of the population in this seat has a connection to Ballarat either at the Hepburn end or in the growth areas around Lucas – making the Liberals a natural choice for many conservative voters. Armstrong could probably flip Ararat booths from Labor and run up the score in the southern Mallee areas but I’m not sure I’d say out of hand this is prime Nats territory, although John mentions they can target their campaigns better they could also find themselves battling for Bendigo East and Benambra too and I doubt the Liberals will be willing to go away quietly.

This territory is more favourable for the nats then Benambra. As an Benambra constituent I can guarantee you they will not win it unless they can produce a superstar candidate or the liberal candidate is a dud. Bendigo East they can easily produce Lathlean who based on federal results would win. The nats will likely not have to defend any seats against Independent challengers at this stage. And morwell is probably in their court. This means they can dump all their resources here and in Bendigo. The libs on the other hand contest all the other non nat seats and will likely have teal challengers somewhere as well as having to contend with Labor in the seats they hope to gain and to retain in the metropolitan areas. Without incumbency or a familiar member the libs will likely struggle to overcome the history of this seat. Nats can easily win the rural and regional areas and some people are more open to nats member then they are to a liberal. Obviously the libs will want to win it but at the end of the day as long your team wins it shouldn’t matter if it’s you or your teammate that does. It just like in motor racing sometimes you personally have to lose so your team can win.

Ripen is the area roughly between Bendigo and Ballarat….not including the 4 seats based in those cities.
A personal vote is so important here and the one most poised to win a personal vote is the alp mp.
Look at the results this area does not swing dramatically within 1.5% normally
Also both libs and nats will contest this seat and preferences will leak.

Mick that swing is only in a alp v lib contest a nat v alp would probably be tighter. Lib ->nat preferences generally flow stronger and the nats can appeal to parts of the alp base. Especially in the Ararat area. Also this area is not between bendigo and Ballarat that’s more bendigo west. This is the parts west of those cities. Personal vote is probably not what happens here more like local factors. Things like the emergency services Levy would have an effect here.

Agree John, most recent elections (including the WA one earlier this year) have shown swings against Labor tend to be higher in the regional and rural seats. As a result, Ripon is likely to be one of the first seats to be lost in 2026.

@yoh the same happened in qld. Also in WA labor will probably lose all it’s regional holdings except Kimberley at the next election. Though Bunbury will probably be lineball.

Ripon has a history of not swinging and has a lot of tree changers so it can always be Bundaberg I think Nats will do better than Libs but there are local issues such as transmission lines and emergency services levy