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Labor hold, I don’t see Labor losing this.
If someone like cr Eddy Kontelj got talked into running for the Liberals (unlikely) and they had a good year it might get close, over time the area is gentrifying and there is the potential for the slavic communities in Bell Post Hill etc to continue moving right, however the Labor vote is very strong in Norlane and Corio and urbanisation around Lara is probably more friendly to them. The Liberals don’t lift a finger in these parts – ran some ex-staffer from Burwood last time whereas Ella actually worked the campaign pretty hard and Eren was visible during the campaign too (I was a candidate here in 2022 as well)
I think this seat is probably going to be competitive for One Nation. It is Victoria analogy for the SA seat of Elizabeth being:
– Heavily White Working Class being Heavily Anglo although a sizeable Croatian Community, high proportion of public housing and a rust belt being formerly home to the Ford Factory plant just like Elizabeth (but the latter had a Holden plant)
– Although heavily Anglo, there has been a sizeable recent influx of working class non-white CALD which I commented in a previous post the “low contact intergroup threat” meaning within working class suburbs, the increases non-whites actually increases resentment to them (meaning the higher percentage of Non-whites increases to a certain point before it declines again by the CALD vote). Elizabeth and Lara non-white CALD percentages are actually similar.
@Mark,
I concur, like Elizabeth what will save Labor here will be the margin.
Sorry auto correct @Marh not mark
It could become competitive pending which minor parties run.
In Vic, unlike in SA, there are more competitive micro and minor parties across the political aisle that are not One Nation or the Greens. The West Party (not sure if Lara is too westerly), Vic Socialists or Libertarians could split the non-Labor vote and give Labor a path to holding on.
At the Federal election, One Nation had votes of 15 – 17% in many of these booths – and as we know it is probably only up from there. If One Nation is first or second and the Liberals third then Labor could be in big trouble here.
There wont be a West Party candidate in Lara – Little River represents an absolute cultural border between western Melbourne and Geelong, Socialists likely run as their sitting councillor and main Geelong figurehead lives in Norlane and often doorknocks the North Shore area thoroughly (where they tend to overperform) but that cuts more into Labor’s primary than anything else. Libertarians haven’t got much of a candidate pool in Geelong and I suspect Bernie Finn moving to ON might give DLP or Family First similar troubles, we did see Family First’s vote halve in the SA Election just gone – probably due to some cannibalisation by ON. Long story short – I don’t think other minor parties will have much impact on ON’s vote here if SA and current polling is any indication.
We are seeing in Hammond and Ngadjuri that ON can expect about 55-65% of preferences in a contest with Labor where a somewhat substantial Liberal vote has been pushed to 3rd. Liberals ran an ex-staffer from Burwood in this seat last time, they won’t be trying here, if ON can get Labor’s vote under 40% and get theirs to about 35% they stand a proper good chance of winning the seat.
I agree with Marh that this is a seat ONP will poll well it is a rustbelt area and very different from the Rest of the Geelong Region seats which are increasingly socially progresisve/gentrifying with sea changers. Maxim and Marh have pointed out the right trend of Croations/Christian Slavs.
Votante while i agree with most of your analysis i dont think Libertarians fit this demographic profile and they tend to be against economic intervention while ONP is Economically right it supports Economic Nationalism which will resonate here.