Lara – Victoria 2026

Labor hold, I don’t see Labor losing this.

If someone like cr Eddy Kontelj got talked into running for the Liberals (unlikely) and they had a good year it might get close, over time the area is gentrifying and there is the potential for the slavic communities in Bell Post Hill etc to continue moving right, however the Labor vote is very strong in Norlane and Corio and urbanisation around Lara is probably more friendly to them. The Liberals don’t lift a finger in these parts – ran some ex-staffer from Burwood last time whereas Ella actually worked the campaign pretty hard and Eren was visible during the campaign too (I was a candidate here in 2022 as well)

I think this seat is probably going to be competitive for One Nation. It is Victoria analogy for the SA seat of Elizabeth being:
– Heavily White Working Class being Heavily Anglo although a sizeable Croatian Community, high proportion of public housing and a rust belt being formerly home to the Ford Factory plant just like Elizabeth (but the latter had a Holden plant)
– Although heavily Anglo, there has been a sizeable recent influx of working class non-white CALD which I commented in a previous post the “low contact intergroup threat” meaning within working class suburbs, the increases non-whites actually increases resentment to them (meaning the higher percentage of Non-whites increases to a certain point before it declines again by the CALD vote). Elizabeth and Lara non-white CALD percentages are actually similar.

@Mark,
I concur, like Elizabeth what will save Labor here will be the margin.

Sorry auto correct @Marh not mark

It could become competitive pending which minor parties run.

In Vic, unlike in SA, there are more competitive micro and minor parties across the political aisle that are not One Nation or the Greens. The West Party (not sure if Lara is too westerly), Vic Socialists or Libertarians could split the non-Labor vote and give Labor a path to holding on.

At the Federal election, One Nation had votes of 15 – 17% in many of these booths – and as we know it is probably only up from there. If One Nation is first or second and the Liberals third then Labor could be in big trouble here.

There wont be a West Party candidate in Lara – Little River represents an absolute cultural border between western Melbourne and Geelong, Socialists likely run as their sitting councillor and main Geelong figurehead lives in Norlane and often doorknocks the North Shore area thoroughly (where they tend to overperform) but that cuts more into Labor’s primary than anything else. Libertarians haven’t got much of a candidate pool in Geelong and I suspect Bernie Finn moving to ON might give DLP or Family First similar troubles, we did see Family First’s vote halve in the SA Election just gone – probably due to some cannibalisation by ON. Long story short – I don’t think other minor parties will have much impact on ON’s vote here if SA and current polling is any indication.

We are seeing in Hammond and Ngadjuri that ON can expect about 55-65% of preferences in a contest with Labor where a somewhat substantial Liberal vote has been pushed to 3rd. Liberals ran an ex-staffer from Burwood in this seat last time, they won’t be trying here, if ON can get Labor’s vote under 40% and get theirs to about 35% they stand a proper good chance of winning the seat.

I agree with Marh that this is a seat ONP will poll well it is a rustbelt area and very different from the Rest of the Geelong Region seats which are increasingly socially progresisve/gentrifying with sea changers. Maxim and Marh have pointed out the right trend of Croations/Christian Slavs.
Votante while i agree with most of your analysis i dont think Libertarians fit this demographic profile and they tend to be against economic intervention while ONP is Economically right it supports Economic Nationalism which will resonate here.

I think the debate about Fuel Self-Sufficiency and need for Oil Refineries will resonate here especially given there are only two left on the continent and yesterday’s very horrific fire at Corio refinery. ONP can argue both parties failed Australia something Libs cannot really do.

Interesting, a big local debate in the area has been opposition to a proposed gas terminal at Corio Bay – I can’t help but feel this empowers some of the local activists on that front as well, one of their big concerns is the local environmental impact and liability.

@Nimalan, the debate over fuel and self-sufficiency doesn’t help the Liberals. The Liberals are seen as the more pro-free market party. Several oil refineries were closed down, on the federal Liberals’ watch, by their private operators due to intense competition from more efficient and larger refineries in Asia. ONP is economically interventionist and could argue against the Liberals’ free market image.

@ Votante
I agree One Nation has always been protectionist so they can argue this. Also Ford Factory in this seat closed under Liberal State Goverment but ONP does not have that problem. Even in 1996 Hanson called to rebuild Australian manufacturing.

One Nation will make some serious inroads into this seat. Anecdotes from locals I know in the electorate have spoken of a sharp increase in vocal One Nation support – especially in Corio and Norlane: very anglo/white, blue collar worker demographic and big generational disadvantage.

I think Labor should be able to hold on but oh boy knock another 10-15% off that Labor primary with it going to the Right and it comes into play. Of the Geelong seats: Labor’s more at risk in Lara than South Barwon or Bellarine (both of which have solid Greens voting blocks that’ll prop up Labor through preferences, a buffer Lara doesn’t have).

As it gets closer to the election I’m becoming less and less convinced Labor can hold here and I am putting this as lean One Nation at the moment. I could see a scenario whereby Labor holds onto Geelong, South Barwon & Bellarine but looses Lara.

One Nation have a good base to start with. At the federal election their vote was in the mid to high teens in the booths covered by Lara and in a few they outpolled the Libs – a portent of things to come!! This is definitely where ON could be in with a chance. This will possibly the first time that Labor have had to worry about a seat in Northern Geelong.

As a sidenote, the Greens do pretty well across the Geelong area – not enough to win – but they have lots of booths in the high teens even in Northern Geelong. They might be all that stand in the way of Labor and disaster.

This seat is interesting as it one that Libs simply cannot appeal to even if it was led by someoone like Brad Battin or Peter Dutton but ONP can. There is a cohort of very working class voters who will not vote for Libs but can vote for ONP or something simmilar.

I believe the Greens are targeting Geelong in particular but also Lara this cycle, saw some Green corflutes out when I was last in Central Geelong. Norlane and Corio have large numbers of disadvantaged renters, the appeal to populism will come from both the right and the left here. The more gentrified suburbs of Bell Post Hill and Bell Park with higher Southern European populations will swing more to ONP, Labor’s base will split both ways in Corio/Norlane (interestingly there are two socialist candidates now) and Lara proper (which now includes some fairly new housing estates backing onto Bacchus Marsh rd) has a bit of a Secret Harbour style anglo, tradie mortgage belt demographic which could launch ONP into a decent lead on primaries

@Nimalan, I think the potential archetype of White Working Class Red One Nation base tends to be:

– Works in Trade/Labourers following from family history. Either TAFE or No post-high school as their highest attainment

– Left leaning on Worker Rights, Wages and Job Conditions (hence are never appealed to the Liberal Party)

– They leaned to nationalism so they Voted No to the Voice however have a live and let live attitude on moral ethics such as LGBT Rights so most probably voted Yes for Same Sex Marriage

– Mostly Irreligious but quite a sizable number converted to religiously Christian recently and seems to have very little secular/moderate Christians in this group.

– Mostly Outer Suburban, Regional Cities or towns with particular industry.

– Loves the Australian Stereotypical Lifestyle and activities such as going to Camping. They only go to Inner City occasionally and would rather socialize outside the cosmopolitan bubble.

– Drives Big Cars (4WD, Utes or SUV’s)

– Does not like Trump in treating Australia and handling International affairs but is more supportive on his domestic/social policies

– Pretty much only wants minimal numbers of non-Whites in Australia and must be deemed ‘Assimilated’ due to strong insularity and/or negative exposure to CALD.

– Often watches Right-wing podcast/Social Media Influncers such as Two Worlds Collide, Big Chocky.

Maxim
You mention that voters in Corio / Norlane might look to VS?

What is the archetypal VS voter / supporter? My view is that they are university Trot types who inhabit the fringes of student politics.
Feedback I get from younger left wing relatives is that they are a bit cult like and do really well at making people feel uncomfortable – my niece once fled a tram stop after being accosted by a VS canvasser.
I can see VS doing well in the Northern Suburbs in particular but hadn’t thought of the rust belt as their natural constituency.

Marh
I would add to your list people who either worked in their younger days or had parents who worked in the now privatised or corporatised public enterprises – telecom, Australia Post, electricity, railways, etc.

@ Marh
I agree with your analysis. I also think that demographic was the reason that Hanson as a disnedorsed canadiate was able to win Oxley in 1996. John Howard said if she remained an official Liberal candidatte she would have likely missed out.
@Reidstributed i think VS does appeal to working class ethnic communities not just student radicals so if you count places like Meadow Heighes-near former Holden factory or Doveton-near a former general motors factory they appeal. Whether they appeal to White voters in the rustbelt i dont know to be honest?

@Reidstributed @Nimalan Another part of the VS base, perhaps the largest, that you’re missing are more involved working unionists from all over the state whose unions are in disputes with the Labor Party mainly teachers, support staff, nurses, doctors, council workers, etc. Teachers in particular, with VS running eight “Socialists in Schools” candidates against Labor MPs. Most of this demographic would’ve voted for Labor/Greens in the past but it will include some White rustbelt health/community/education workers. Don’t confuse VS just for the annoying SAlt university campaigners (although they do still impact their overall image, and make up leadership positions).

Yeah the Socialists are quite active in Geelong’s north and will run a pretty heavy campaign on the ground, Hathway has run many times and was briefly on Geelong Council after a count-back prior to the 2024 LGA elections. So it’s not so much VS but rather SA that might pull in more votes or turn out people who weren’t otherwise planning to vote.

As Vandon mentions it’s the unionists and service poorer diverse service workers (Corio/Norlane is somewhat multicultural but without a major subcontinent/Chinese contingent) who are renting and struggle with poor transport connections and services within the area, those two suburbs also skew to the younger side demographically with gen z and younger millennials over-represented compared to the state average, making a mass exodus for ONP unlikely IMO

Do working people who vote VS know that VS wants to introduce a top income tax of 90%, a wealth tax of 10%, and in some cases expropriate investment properties without compensation? And do they not think that these policies could be harmful (to say the least) to their livelihoods? Genuine question. Are they voting for them because they actually think these are sensible policies, or just because they like “socialist” vibes?

@ Vandon Good points
@ Nicholas, do people who vote for VS think they are going to form government or implement a 90% top income tax? If a voter in Meadow Heights who is CALD is angry with Labor there only choices are Greens or VS?

I think for White Working Class (many of them Red One Nation Voters) tends to be more around Workers Compensation ,rights and security rather than Social Services as they are more tax agnostic in the belief that any tax changes must not be a blank cheque especially if it is seen to not benefit them. Then add in the fact Socialist Parties like VS are pro-immigration and multiculturalism means they do not have the voter appeal with these voters

@Nimalan

Well, they can vote for The Greens, and that’s a different proposition. The Greens are not proposing a 90% income tax, nor do I think they ever would. What would these voters want the VS to do if not pursue their policy agenda?

@ Nicholas

A lot of people vote for Victorian Socialists have the same views as One Nation. They want to throw a grenade at the system or drain the swamp. It also appeals to Grievance and despair Like many White Working class voters are angry. I have mentioned this before there is a cohort of Ethnic working class voters especially the Australian born generation who feel they were cursed at birth by born on the wrong side of the tracks in a society that looks down on them so they feel like the proverbial black sheep. We discussed this on the Broadmeadows thread last week see link below. Unlike the Greens Victorian Socialists are not trying to appeal to people who live in Byron Bay or tree change/seachange crowd or the seat of Brisbane. They are appealing to people who have been left behind and want to disrupt the current economic system Victorian Socialists uses more class based rhetoric and supports the class war rather than the culture war by the populist radical right

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2026/broadmeadows2026

*When i say same views as One Nation i mean same economic grievance and burn system down attitude

I guess that answers my question, and it’s quite a dark answer.

@Maxim the Greens will have corflutes up all across Geelong, will be doing letterbox drops and what not too; they definitely have a base of support and willing volunteers across the city. But this seat isn’t being targeted in the sense that state office is directing additional resources into Lara or any of the other Geelong seats for that matter. A few local Greens supporters are actually pretty peeved that the Geelong region campaigns aren’t being resourced more strongly given the party is defending its upper house seat (and deputy state leader) in Western Vic and it’s where the incumbent is based.

Also agree with the above comments re commonalities between One Nation and Socialists’ boter base but I don’t think neither Socialist Alliance nor Victorian Socialists are running strong enough campaigns in the Geelong seats to pull votes away from One Nation as they are in some of the Melbourne electorates; where they pull votes of working class people (in the strictest definition – being wage workers without additional investments), workers from CALD migrant communities and the like, and some older trade unionists.

Victorian Socialists and One Nation have commonalities. Whilst their supporters may not agree with every minor detail, both parties cater to voters who feel that the economic and political system has left them behind. Vic Socialists also have appeal to public sector workers, especially healthcare workers and teachers, and CALD communities. They have a more explicit, ‘stop One Nation’ campaign.

I don’t think Vic Socialists will do that well in Lara unlike in a purely, middle-outer suburban CALD, mortgage belt or renters’ seat. The party might come 4th at best. Lara has a mix of suburban, outer suburban and rural locales.

Surely though, it is also true that One Nation’s support base is broader than just that?

And from a policy perspective, VS goes much further in “throwing a grenade at the system” than ON does. VS’s policy platform makes ON’s look timid. But again, maybe policy is not the point here.

@Nicholas

The difference is One Nation carries support from small business owners, small time investors, and self employed tradies, which is a voter base that the socialist parties don’t carry.

Both the small business owning/tradie/investor voting blocks and the strictly working class/wage worker voting blocks share similar reasons for wanting to throw a grenade under the system and are shopping around for alternatives to Labor and Liberal. One Nation is seen as the grenade that will spare the economic interests of the former voting block, and aren’t warm to the socialists who are open about undermining their economic interests; while the latter voting block is more amenable to the ‘fuck the system entirely’ message that the socialists put forward, but will vote for the most visible candidate or party (whether that’s socialists, Greens, an independent, or One Nation) in their electorate that’s seen to represent this sentiment.