NAT 21.6%
Incumbent MP
Emma Kealy, since 2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Lowan covers the towns of Casterton, Coleraine, Dartmoor, Dimboola, Hamilton, Horsham, Jeparit, Kaniva, Nhill and Rainbow. Lowan covers western parts of Victoria along the South Australian border, covering Hindmarsh, Horsham, Southern Grampians and West Wimmera local government areas, and parts of Ararat, Glenelg, Moyne, Northern Grampians and Yarriambiack local government areas.
History
Lowan was first created as an electoral district in 1889. It has existed for most of the last 121 years, with the exception of two periods when the seat was abolished for a decade before being restored, from 1945-1955 and from 1992-2002. Apart from a few periods of the seat going to the Liberals in the 1960s and 1970s, the seat has been held by the Country/National Party since 1920.
Jim McGrath of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1964, the first non-Country Party member since 1920. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1967 to the Country Party’s Ray Buckley, but he won the seat back in 1970. McCabe held the seat until his defeat in 1979.
The seat was won in 1979 by the Nationals’ Bill McGrath. He moved to the seat of Wimmera when Lowan was abolished in a redistribution. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 to 1999, and retired at the 1999 election.
Wimmera was won in 1999 by Hugh Delahunty, who won Lowan in 2002 when Wimmera was abolished. Delahunty was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.
Delahunty retired in 2014, and was succeeded by Nationals candidate Emma Kealy, who was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
- Emma Kealy (Nationals)
Assessment
Lowan would be a key target for One Nation.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Kealy | Nationals | 25,482 | 58.9 | -0.7 |
| Mick Monaghan | Labor | 8,554 | 19.8 | -1.8 |
| Richard Lane | Greens | 2,575 | 5.9 | +0.6 |
| Amanda Mead | Independent | 2,384 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Richard Etherton | Angry Victorians | 1,710 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Robert Coleman | Family First | 1,573 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Tamasin Ramsay | Animal Justice | 1,019 | 2.4 | +2.1 |
| Informal | 2,612 | 5.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Emma Kealy | Nationals | 30,941 | 71.6 | +0.5 |
| Mick Monaghan | Labor | 12,299 | 28.4 | -0.1 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Horsham, north, south and west.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 66.1% in the south to 81.1% in the west.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 66.1 | 9,766 | 22.6 |
| North | 75.9 | 4,489 | 10.4 |
| Horsham | 75.0 | 4,137 | 9.6 |
| West | 81.1 | 1,810 | 4.2 |
| Pre-poll | 72.2 | 18,753 | 43.3 |
| Other votes | 69.7 | 4,336 | 10.0 |
Election results in Lowan at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals and Labor.
The Greens almost outpoll Labor in the Laharum, Halls Gap and Pomonal. The Halls Gap booth is the only ttp where they win which looks out of place.
Popular tree-change/alternative lifestyle area whose economy relies on tourism, viticulture etc – doesn’t surprise me Labor/the Greens do well there
Does anyone remember how the Liberals did not run in Richmond in 2018? What if Labor didn’t run in seats like this? In reality it makes no difference to them.
The conventional wisdom is that it important to run in an as many seats as possible to maximise the Upper House vote even it it would seem totally futile. It is possible in Lowan that the Labir vote will be in single figures.
@ Adam
As redistributed correctly said it is good to maximise the Upper House vote. There is tiny pockets of left-wing strength here like Halls Gap so if there is a tight result for the Last seat then Labor wants the left to hold that seat. I say Richmond in 2018 not contesting was a mistake as there are pockets of Liberal strength around Cremorne and Burnley. I think only reason Libs did it then is they did not want to be in a dilemma on who to preference.
If Labor actually campaigned around Stawell they could flip the booths through but I’d doubt the membership is that big there plus it wouldn’t be worth the time.
Labor need to sure up their Western Region upper house MPs, could be at risk of losing 1 and if that trend continued in the other regional areas it would be very hard for Labor to be in a position of any strength in the upper house no matter if they hang onto government in the LA
Perhaps in 2018 or even last cycle it might have been possible for Labor to overperform in Stawell but this cycle I think it would be really tough, after 10 years very little headway has been made on Western Hwy duplication past Ararat