LIB 8.0%
Incumbent MP
Roma Britnell, since 2015.
Geography
South-Western Victoria. This seat covers the South Australian border and the western end of Victoria’s southern coast. It covers the towns of Warrnambool, Portland, Port Fairy, and Macarthur. South-West Coast covers the City of Warrnambool and a majority of the Shire of Moyne and the Shire of Glenelg, along with a small part of Corangamite Shire.
History
South-West Coast was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seats of Portland and Warrnambool.
At the 2002 election it was won by former Liberal leader Denis Napthine. He had been Member for Portland since 1988, and Minister for Youth and Community Services in the second term of the Kennett government. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party following Kennett’s defeat in 1999, and led the party until 2002, when he was replaced by Robert Doyle as Liberal leader months before the 2002 state election.
At the 2002 election, Napthine moved to the new seat of South-West Coast, holding it with a 0.7% margin despite a large swing to the ALP. He was re-elected with a larger margin in 2006. In 2010, he increased his margin to 11.9%.
Napthine served as a minister in the Bailleu Coalition government. In March 2013, Bailleu resigned as Premier and Napthine was elected as leader of the Liberal Party and Premier.
Napthine led the Liberal/National coalition into the 2014 election, and the government was narrowly defeated. He retired from parliament shortly after the election.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Roma Britnell, and she was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
- Roma Britnell (Liberal)
- Andrew Govanstone (Labor)
- Silver Rose (Greens)
- Hera Sheppard (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
The Liberal Party is safe here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Roma Britnell | Liberal | 19,517 | 42.9 | +8.5 |
| Kylie Gaston | Labor | 9,640 | 21.2 | -3.4 |
| Carol Altmann | Independent | 6,564 | 14.4 | +14.4 |
| James Purcell | Independent | 2,737 | 6.0 | -9.4 |
| Thomas Campbell | Greens | 2,457 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
| Jim Doukas | Independent | 1,865 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Chris Brunt | Family First | 924 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Jacinta Anderson | Animal Justice | 688 | 1.5 | +1.3 |
| Michael McCluskey | Independent | 616 | 1.4 | +0.5 |
| James Brash Grimley | Hinch’s Justice | 488 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 2,723 | 5.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Roma Britnell | Liberal | 26,410 | 58.0 | +4.8 |
| Kylie Gaston | Labor | 19,086 | 42.0 | -4.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas along local government boundaries: Warrnambool, Moyne, Glenelg and Corangamite.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.5% in Warrnambool to 65.6% in Corangamite.
Independent Carol Altmann came third, with a vote ranging from 4.9% in Glenelg to 20.9% in Warrnambool.
| Voter group | Altmann | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warrnambool | 20.9 | 55.5 | 7,975 | 17.5 |
| Moyne | 12.0 | 63.9 | 5,125 | 11.2 |
| Glenelg | 4.9 | 55.6 | 3,108 | 6.8 |
| Corangamite | 10.9 | 65.6 | 1,269 | 2.8 |
| Pre-poll | 14.9 | 56.9 | 24,070 | 52.7 |
| Other votes | 10.5 | 61.5 | 4,121 | 9.0 |
Election results in South-West Coast at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and independent candidate Carol Altmann.
Alex Dyson has a better chance winning this state seat rather than the federal seat of Wannon
The redistributions in 2022 helped the Liberals here significantly.
I think Alex Dyson would do better in Polwarth because it is electorally ‘Greener’ than South West Coast. His hometown is in South West Coast though.
The problem with community independents such as Alex Dyson and others that ran in May is that they need to stand for more than ‘I am local and I’m nice’. Also the problem with someone like Alex Dyson running is that they have already run three times and couldn’t win – a state runs starts to look a tad desperate. He wouldn’t get the gig for a 4th time if he was in a major party.
@Redistributed.
I agree that Alex Dyson has had his run – three to be exact. Over-campaigning and desperation are detrimental. Many independents like Alex Dyson had a generic ‘independent therefore good’ platform or a cliche ‘sick of the major parties’ platform. He would be a better fit for Polwarth than for South West Coast though I wouldn’t bet on him winning if he were running.
No Portland and Warrnambool are Dyson ‘s base…..look at the votes.
But sitting liberal mp has a personal vote
Can imagine ONP might do reasonably well in Portland where there is more of a working class base, but otherwise there seems to be a reasonably loyal Liberal vote along Victoria’s SW coast that I think makes this seat one of ONP’s unlikeliest targets, decent chance this remains a classic contest that the Libs win by 15% or so given statewide trends, Labor would do well to win a single booth this time round
I think if this remains a classic contest there will be an above average swing against Labor here there will be no sandbagging, Lockdown correction, people of colour, local infrastucure or sitting member vote that can soften the swing.
Interestingly, during landslide results such as 2002 and to a lesser extent 2018 this seat comes close but Labor missing out. The 2022 redistribution boosted the Liberal margin by 1.0% I dont see Labor winning this in a future landslide they are more likely to win, subject to boundaries, Croydon or Polworth and maybe even Rowville.
After two elections of Alex Dyson running in Wannon, Labor most likely have no local infrastructure left and their branches run down to nothing. Quite similar to other parts of the country where Labor have effectively outsourced their anti LNP campaign to an independent. In the area covered by SW Coast they managed one booth where they managed a vote above 10%. Labors highest votes in Wannon were in the areas covered by Labor held Ripon at state level. Unless they put in a big effort in this part of the world, they are quite likely dead.
The Tealish Voters seems to make up a large chunk of the non-conservative vote in this seat especially within Port Fairy and to some extent Warrnambool.
@ Redistributed
I think in the parts of Wannon that overlap with Polworth labor will put an effort not in 2026 but at a future landslide year as it a seat that they would need to win if they ever want to beat the 2002 record of 62 Notional Labor seats (including any Green held ones). They will not likely win Morwell, Narracan or Evelyn ever again which they won in 2002 so they will look for other seats. However, i think your point about Labor outsourcing the anti-LNP campiagn to an indpendent will likely play out in Tealish areas like Northern Beaches for example they won Wakehurst twice during the Wranslides but if there is a Minnslide in 2027 they are not winning Wakehurst interesting about Hawthorn even when they had a sitting MP in 2022 they ran dead and were hoping the Teal would win in 2026 the anti Liberal campaign is led by a Teal and with Labor running dead at a Federal level if they get a 2002 or 2018 style result in the future they may just led a Teal win Hawthorn instead.