ALP 7.2%
Incumbent MP
Michaela Settle, since 2022. Previously member for Buninyong 2018-2022.
Geography
Western Victoria. Eureka covers southeastern parts of the City of Ballarat and most of Moorabool Shire and Golden Plains Shire. In addition to Ballarat, the electorate covers Bacchus Marsh, Buninyong, Ballan, Haddon, Meredith and Mount Clear.
History
Eureka is a new name for the electorate covering eastern Ballarat, replacing Buninyong, which replaced Ballarat East in 2014.
Ballarat East first existed as a Victorian Legislative Assembly district from 1859 until 1927. It elected two members from 1859 until 1889, when it became a single-member district. The single member district was held by Liberal and Nationalist members from 1889 until 1924, when it was won by the ALP. The seat was abolished in 1927.
Ballarat East was recreated in 1992, and won by the Liberal Party’s Barry Traynor. He won with a slim 1.6% margin in 1992, which was cut to 1% in 1996, before he lost to the ALP’s Geoff Howard in 1999.
Howard increased his margin to 7.6% in 2002 before it was cut to 6.6% in 2006, and cut further to 1.5% in 2010. Howard was re-elected with an increased margin to the renamed seat of Buninyong in 2014.
Howard retired in 2018, and Labor’s Michaela Settle won the seat. Settle was re-elected to represent the renamed seat of Eureka in 2022.
- Sam McColl (Greens)
- Wendy Morrison (Animal Justice)
- Emma Muir (Liberal)
- Michaela Settle (Labor)
Assessment
Labor is in serious danger of losing this seat to either the Coalition or One Nation.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michaela Settle | Labor | 18,531 | 41.0 | -3.6 |
| Paul Tatchell | Liberal | 14,320 | 31.6 | +0.7 |
| Sam McColl | Greens | 4,887 | 10.8 | +1.7 |
| Tabitha Rickard | Democratic Labour | 1,821 | 4.0 | +3.4 |
| Wendy Morrison | Animal Justice | 1,519 | 3.4 | -0.5 |
| Adrian Garcia | Family First | 1,233 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Nicola Reid | Independent | 1,083 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Anthony Joseph Giampaolo | Freedom Party | 967 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Michael Ray | Independent | 666 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Mark William Banwell | Independent | 220 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 3,297 | 6.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michaela Settle | Labor | 25,869 | 57.2 | -2.4 |
| Paul Tatchell | Liberal | 19,378 | 42.8 | +2.4 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Ballarat, north-east, south-east and west. Most of the population lies in Ballarat or Bacchus Marsh (in the north-east).
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 52.1% in the north-east to 64.1% in Ballarat. Labor polled 50.1% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.9% in the west to 15.3% in Ballarat.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Ballarat | 15.3 | 64.1 | 6,870 | 15.1 |
| North-East | 9.6 | 52.1 | 6,211 | 13.7 |
| South-East | 8.4 | 53.3 | 3,005 | 6.6 |
| West | 5.9 | 49.9 | 625 | 1.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.9 | 56.6 | 23,209 | 51.0 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 57.8 | 5,576 | 12.3 |
Election results in Eureka at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
A lot of local anger at REZs, the volunteer services levy and the state of the roads in these parts, the works on Ballarat station raising eyebrows too, definitely on the target list for the Coalition and I’ve heard at least 1 or 2 promising candidates have come forward for pre-selection
This is another of those seats that the LNP must win if they wish to from majority.
SpaceFish, it is going to be towards the upper end of their targets if they’re aiming for a majority.
Also, Prahran will likely flip. After the Bendigo federal election result and Werribee by-election, it could be unpredictable and could swing more than the average in metro Melbourne.
Yes. I’m certain they should put in a good show here. I can see them winning the 8 marginals. Eureka, Asswood and Sunbury. That gets them to 39. They then need to find 6 more seats.
Given the state of the polls I can’t see that happening.
Myrniong based Emma Muir is the Liberal candidate for this seat. She was named Moorabool shire citizen of the year in 2024 and has campaigned against the Western Renewables Link.
I’m not sure how big the swing will be to the Libs in the Ballarat booths, the seat takes in some inner suburbs of Ballarat . I’m predicting the One nation vote will be high in Ballan and Bacchus Marsh and the towns closer to Geelong.
In rural areas, there seems to be an interesting trend where voting patterns of each towns tends to be all over the place such as Rokewood votes strongly for Liberal but just 10km North, the town Dereel votes strongly for Labor.
Have been seeing some ONP campaigning trying to wedge the Coalition on the Ausnet towers/WRL issue so interesting to see if Muir’s selection can dent some of their impact on this race