Melton – Victoria 2026

This seat had so much attention and nothing came of it, I am curious if this time will be it.

Some Level Crossing will be removed by 2026 and Hospital contruction well underway. At both elections Labor is doing better in the new housing estates populated by more diverse communities compared to older whiter parts. This something Kos Samaras has kept saying.
Melton electrification/Western Highway remain outstanding issues.

I’d potentially add crime to that list as well

This would be State Labor’s most underperformed seat especially since 2018 as Federal Results still has Labor performing at typically margins. This would be due to State Liberals were able to campaign on infrastructure issues and I think many voter still remembered Don Nardella saga.

I just feel that the Liberals winning Melton is a chimera that just won’t happen. Yes, there is not a big Labor majority but that is more driven by the splintering of the vote in the Western Suburbs. The demographics for a Liberal win just don’t seem right and after all they only managed something like 24% of the PV last time. In the Western Suburbs – Werribee, Point Cook, Niddrie or Sunbury would seem much better bets.

A lot of the attention that Melton got last time was because it was on an apparently low margin (and thus seen as the most likely Liberal target in the west), but that margin was artificially low because of the Labor candidate issues in 2018 – realistically it was a 10% seat going into 2022, not a 5% one.

Despite inroads elsewjere labors vote in Hawke and Gorton were stagnant inidicating the Libs would have done well if not for issues. Labor lost ground in Fraser as the green sbecame competitive indicating Footscray may be at risk.

It’s difficult for the Liberals to win with a low primary vote. I don’t know what is it about Melton that gets so many minor parties and independents to run.

@ Votante

Melton is experiencing Growing Pains. There is a grass routes campaign called Make Melton Marginal (link below) to encourage people to run and they focus on local issues such Hospital, Western Highway and Electrification

https://www.facebook.com/MMeltonM/

Nimalan, as a comparison would Melton and its surroundings in Rockbank and Caroline Springs be akin to places like the Southwest Sydney growth corridor (Camden, Oran Park, Leppington etc) and the outer Brisbane growth corridors (Flagstone in South Logan, Ripley in Ipswich and Burpengary/Narangba in Moreton Bay). All of these locations share a common feature with lack of public transport connections and amenities like schools and shops forcing local residents to rely on long commutes by private car each day.

@ Yoh An
Agree with the examples you have given in terms of growth areas. This is certainly not a Rust Belt. I often say this area is a Victim of its Victoria’s success as it has absorved much of the population growth in Victoria. Current affair did a program on the suburb of Thornhill Park which is in the electorate and next to Rockbank.

Melton is one of the seats the Libs will need to form any sort of government

The Libs can throw a huge amount of money at Melton and they just won’t win it. The core demographics are wrong. There is fragmenation of the vote in the western suburbs but there is nothing to say that it will translate into Liberal votes and a seat win. And the PVs are so low that it would not be sustainable anyway.

The vote seems very fragmented because of the minor parties and independents. As BT mentioned, Melton was overhyped in 2022 because the 2018 result was lower than it should’ve been despite a very good result for Labor statewide.

I think the Greens will ramp up their campaign here to save their Western Vic LC seat. The Greens’ worst result in 2022 in the Western Vic seats was here. I think they will do the same in the western suburbs of Melbourne to boost their Western Metro LC vote. The Greens might attract the disenfranchised working-class and anti-major party vote but help Labor through preferences.

@ Redistributed
I agree with you that the core demographics are wrong however, there are local issues in this seat highlighted by the video i posted above which is the only reason i think it maybe in play for Libs along with Yan Yean, Niddrie, Sunbury. I think there is a much better chance in Melton than Werribee and certainly Greenvale or St Albans. It is for the local issues that Gorton and Hawke were targetted at the Federal eleciton.

nimalan agree with mostly however Niddrie will likely be saved by the fact that the local member is the deputy leadr warranting the use of resources to sandbag the seat. they will likely try the same in bendigo east to protect the premier the problem is that she not up against the liberals but potentially a popular Nat candiate who came within a whisker of winning the federal seat. labor was saved federally because of two things. 1) the disaster of a campaign by the coalition on a national level and the strong left vote in mount alexander/macedon ranges. the libs wont be winning greenvale or st albans. Werribee remains a dark horse for me theres a chance the libs could win but the better chance would be if the Ind could get up. the that werribee south was transferred into Point Cook in 2022 may have helped Labor as Joe Garra lives there and in 2022 he ran for Point Cook instead. the libs did fairly well in Gorton and Hawke where they a basica neutral shift in ancelction they went backwards everywhere else. They also managed a small swing in Ballarat

@ John
I do agree with a Deputy Leader in Niddrie they will sandbag Niddrie. The reason i put in play is because it has Liberal friendly demographics, high homeownership, mostly middle class, not diverse except Italians and also very Christian. There is anger because of delay to Airport rail. I think Melton there is more anger than Werribee for reasons in the video. I think if Libs were headed for a strong victory maybe outside chance in Sydenham.