Melton – Victoria 2026

This seat had so much attention and nothing came of it, I am curious if this time will be it.

Some Level Crossing will be removed by 2026 and Hospital contruction well underway. At both elections Labor is doing better in the new housing estates populated by more diverse communities compared to older whiter parts. This something Kos Samaras has kept saying.
Melton electrification/Western Highway remain outstanding issues.

I’d potentially add crime to that list as well

This would be State Labor’s most underperformed seat especially since 2018 as Federal Results still has Labor performing at typically margins. This would be due to State Liberals were able to campaign on infrastructure issues and I think many voter still remembered Don Nardella saga.

I just feel that the Liberals winning Melton is a chimera that just won’t happen. Yes, there is not a big Labor majority but that is more driven by the splintering of the vote in the Western Suburbs. The demographics for a Liberal win just don’t seem right and after all they only managed something like 24% of the PV last time. In the Western Suburbs – Werribee, Point Cook, Niddrie or Sunbury would seem much better bets.

A lot of the attention that Melton got last time was because it was on an apparently low margin (and thus seen as the most likely Liberal target in the west), but that margin was artificially low because of the Labor candidate issues in 2018 – realistically it was a 10% seat going into 2022, not a 5% one.

Despite inroads elsewjere labors vote in Hawke and Gorton were stagnant inidicating the Libs would have done well if not for issues. Labor lost ground in Fraser as the green sbecame competitive indicating Footscray may be at risk.

It’s difficult for the Liberals to win with a low primary vote. I don’t know what is it about Melton that gets so many minor parties and independents to run.

@ Votante

Melton is experiencing Growing Pains. There is a grass routes campaign called Make Melton Marginal (link below) to encourage people to run and they focus on local issues such Hospital, Western Highway and Electrification

https://www.facebook.com/MMeltonM/

Nimalan, as a comparison would Melton and its surroundings in Rockbank and Caroline Springs be akin to places like the Southwest Sydney growth corridor (Camden, Oran Park, Leppington etc) and the outer Brisbane growth corridors (Flagstone in South Logan, Ripley in Ipswich and Burpengary/Narangba in Moreton Bay). All of these locations share a common feature with lack of public transport connections and amenities like schools and shops forcing local residents to rely on long commutes by private car each day.

@ Yoh An
Agree with the examples you have given in terms of growth areas. This is certainly not a Rust Belt. I often say this area is a Victim of its Victoria’s success as it has absorved much of the population growth in Victoria. Current affair did a program on the suburb of Thornhill Park which is in the electorate and next to Rockbank.

Melton is one of the seats the Libs will need to form any sort of government

The Libs can throw a huge amount of money at Melton and they just won’t win it. The core demographics are wrong. There is fragmenation of the vote in the western suburbs but there is nothing to say that it will translate into Liberal votes and a seat win. And the PVs are so low that it would not be sustainable anyway.

The vote seems very fragmented because of the minor parties and independents. As BT mentioned, Melton was overhyped in 2022 because the 2018 result was lower than it should’ve been despite a very good result for Labor statewide.

I think the Greens will ramp up their campaign here to save their Western Vic LC seat. The Greens’ worst result in 2022 in the Western Vic seats was here. I think they will do the same in the western suburbs of Melbourne to boost their Western Metro LC vote. The Greens might attract the disenfranchised working-class and anti-major party vote but help Labor through preferences.

@ Redistributed
I agree with you that the core demographics are wrong however, there are local issues in this seat highlighted by the video i posted above which is the only reason i think it maybe in play for Libs along with Yan Yean, Niddrie, Sunbury. I think there is a much better chance in Melton than Werribee and certainly Greenvale or St Albans. It is for the local issues that Gorton and Hawke were targetted at the Federal eleciton.

nimalan agree with mostly however Niddrie will likely be saved by the fact that the local member is the deputy leadr warranting the use of resources to sandbag the seat. they will likely try the same in bendigo east to protect the premier the problem is that she not up against the liberals but potentially a popular Nat candiate who came within a whisker of winning the federal seat. labor was saved federally because of two things. 1) the disaster of a campaign by the coalition on a national level and the strong left vote in mount alexander/macedon ranges. the libs wont be winning greenvale or st albans. Werribee remains a dark horse for me theres a chance the libs could win but the better chance would be if the Ind could get up. the that werribee south was transferred into Point Cook in 2022 may have helped Labor as Joe Garra lives there and in 2022 he ran for Point Cook instead. the libs did fairly well in Gorton and Hawke where they a basica neutral shift in ancelction they went backwards everywhere else. They also managed a small swing in Ballarat

@ John
I do agree with a Deputy Leader in Niddrie they will sandbag Niddrie. The reason i put in play is because it has Liberal friendly demographics, high homeownership, mostly middle class, not diverse except Italians and also very Christian. There is anger because of delay to Airport rail. I think Melton there is more anger than Werribee for reasons in the video. I think if Libs were headed for a strong victory maybe outside chance in Sydenham.

Incumbent MO Steve McGhie has just announced on his Facebook page he will not be contesting the next state election. Probably the first Labor retirement of the 2026 VIC election. I think it will be very difficult for Labor to hold Melton in 2026. The seat will likely be won by an independent or the Liberal Party. However, the electorate’s growing Indian diaspora could be a barrier to the Liberal Party winning the seat. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BHHPZ9dV2/?mibextid=wwXIfr

*Incumbent MP

Probably a Liberal gain, also @Joseph, the idea that Indians only vote Labor has been debunked many times. In fact they aren’t even that favourable for Labor.

This is probably won of the worst seats to have an incumbent mp for Labor to retire. This will be an uphill battle for Labor to hold.

I think Lib primary vote will be low and will depend on preferences from Ian Birchall etc. Labor should annouce removal of further level crossings at Rockbank, Thornhill Park. Labor should also annouce a new station for Mount Atkinson.

lib gain now. although steves personal vote cant be that high hes only been in 2 terms. last time there were 14 candidates.

@NP: I have never suggested Indian Australians only vote Labor. Of course Indian Australians vote for all kinds of parties and candidates just like other Australians do. A Morgan poll conducted between June 2023 and June 2025 recorded a Labor 2PP of 55.9% among Indian-born Australians. https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1966409294678728849

Maybe I should have been clearer in my comments. It is the view of some migrant voters, including Indian Australians and others, that the Liberals are anti-immigration, which were heightened during the federal election and Jacinta Price’s recent inflammatory comments about Indian migrants, that may hurt the Liberal Party in a diverse seat like Melton.

I would also like to point you to what pollster Kos Samaras said in the following article. “[Pollster Kos] Samaras said an influx of thousands of Indian migrants – who in Melbourne overwhelmingly voted Labor – would help the party retain its grip on the west in 2026”. “[Pollster Kos] Samaras said the view of some migrant voters that the Liberals are anti-immigration – heightened during the federal election – had put a handbrake on its electability, even at state level”.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-s-west-feels-neglected-by-labor-but-this-is-why-the-liberals-can-t-break-the-red-wall-20250822-p5mp31.html

I think what will happen in Melton at the 2026 VIC election will be similar to what happened in Werribee at the 2025 by-election, where most disaffected Labor voters switched to minor parties and independents rather than the Liberal Party. In the Werribee by-election, even though the Labor primary vote plunged 16.5% to 28.9%, the Liberal primary vote was still too low for the Liberal Party to stay ahead of Labor after preferences were distributed. For the Liberal Party to win, its primary vote needs to be much higher than Labor’s because Labor will get most of the preferences from non-major party candidates. Just like in the Werribee by-election, the Liberal primary vote in Melton will likely struggle to get pass 30%, which means the Labor primary vote will need to be much lower, ideally in the low 20s, for the Liberal Party to win. It will be extraordinary for the Liberal Party to win a seat with a primary vote less than 30% without the help of the Nationals. By contrast, an independent could win Melton with a primary vote much lower than Labor’s as long as they gather enough primary votes to push the Liberal Party into the third place and gather enough preferences to defeat Labor. For this reason it’s easier for a well-known independent to win Melton than the Liberal Party.

Negative brand perception among migrant communities and resulting low Liberal primary vote have so far stopped the Liberal Party from winning Western Melbourne seats. A Liberal victory in Melton will be historic in that it will be the first time the Liberal Party has won Melton and the first time the Liberal Party has won a seat in Melbourne’s West since 1996.

The possible Liberal candidate according to the age will possibly be Jarrod Bingham