North Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2026

Incumbent MLCs

  • Shaun Leane (Labor), since 2006
  • Nick McGowan (Liberal), since 2022
  • Aiv Puglielli (Greens), since 2022
  • Sonja Terpstra (Labor), since 2018
  • Richard Welch (Liberal), since 20241

1Richard Welch replaced Matthew Bach in February 2024 following Bach’s resignation.

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Bayswater ALP 4.2% Croydon LIB 1.4% Mill Park ALP 11.6%
Box Hill ALP 7.2% Eltham ALP 9% Ringwood ALP 7.5%
Bulleen LIB 5.9% Glen Waverley ALP 3.3% Warrandyte LIB 4.3%
Bundoora ALP 12.7% Ivanhoe ALP 12.8%

North Eastern Metropolitan covers eastern parts of the Melbourne urban area, straddling the Yarra river. Seven seats lie south of the river, with four to the north.

Eight out of eleven seats are held by Labor, with three held by the Liberal party.

The region includes seven marginal seats, along with four safer Labor seats.

History

The Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced. The region was renamed to “North Eastern Metropolitan” in 2022.

The first two elections produced the same result at each election – three Liberals and two Labor. Indeed, the region elected the same five individual MLCs at these two elections.

In 2014, Labor lost its second seat to Greens candidate Samantha Dunn.

In 2018, the Liberal Party lost their third seat and the Greens lost their seat. Labor gained a second seat, and Transport Matters were elected off just 0.6% of the primary vote.

The Liberal and Labor parties each retained their two seats in 2022, with the Greens’ Aiv Puglielli winning a seat off Transport Matters.

2022 result

Party Votes % Swing Quota
Labor 162,183 33.7 -3.2 2.024
Liberal 145,788 30.3 -5.8 1.819
Greens 49,934 10.4 +1.4 0.623
Democratic Labour 25,055 5.2 +3.5 0.313
Liberal Democrats 20,379 4.2 +0.1 0.254
Legalise Cannabis 15,357 3.2 +3.2 0.192
Family First 10,063 2.1 +2.1 0.126
Animal Justice 6,799 1.4 -1.0 0.085
Hinch’s Justice 6,759 1.4 -1.1 0.084
One Nation 6,086 1.3 +1.3 0.076
Reason 4,774 1.0 -0.2 0.060
Freedom Party 4,684 1.0 +1.0 0.058
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 4,401 0.9 -0.3 0.055
Sack Dan Andrews 3,236 0.7 +0.7 0.040
Health Australia 3,171 0.7 +0.1 0.040
Victorian Socialists 2,585 0.5 +0.1 0.032
United Australia 2,436 0.5 +0.5 0.030
Others 7,188 1.5 0.090
Informal 13,794 2.8

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor retained two seats and the Liberal Party won one seat.

Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last seat:

  • Nick McGowan (LIB) – 0.864
  • Aiv Puglielli (GRN) – 0.626
  • Hugh Dolan (DLP) – 0.313
  • Alister Cameron (FFP) – 0.296
  • Maya Tesa (LDP) – 0.282
  • Nicholas Wallis (LGC) – 0.201
  • Chris Delforce (AJP) – 0.102
  • Leesa Munro (HAP) – 0.101
  • Judith Thompson (DHJ) – 0.095
  • Nina Springle (RSN) – 0.093

About a third of Reason preferences flowed to the Greens and another third to Legalise Cannabis, with the rest scattering:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.865
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.663
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.314
  • Cameron (FFP) – 0.296
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.283
  • Wallis (LGC) – 0.233
  • Delforce (AJP) – 0.110
  • Munro (HAP) – 0.102
  • Thompson (DHJ) – 0.099

A majority of preferences from Hinch’s Justice flowed to Health Australia.

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.869
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.666
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.315
  • Cameron (FFP) – 0.298
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.286
  • Wallis (LGC) – 0.235
  • Munro (HAP) – 0.174
  • Delforce (AJP) – 0.112

Animal Justice preferences strongly favoured Legalise Cannabis:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.869
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.675
  • Wallis (LGC) – 0.318
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.315
  • Cameron (FFP) – 0.299
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.297
  • Munro (HAP) – 0.174

Health Australia preferences favoured the Liberal Democrats and to a lesser extent the DLP, pushing both ahead of Legalise Cannabis:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.870
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.676
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.410
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.365
  • Wallis (LGC) – 0.319
  • Cameron (FFP) – 0.300

Family First preferences mostly split between the Liberal and DLP candidates:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.987
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.677
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.469
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.463
  • Wallis (LGC) – 0.321

Legalise Cannabis preferences pushed the Greens to the verge of a quota:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 0.989
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.973
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.470
  • Tesa (LDP) – 0.464

LDP preferences pushed the Liberal just over quota for the fourth seat:

  • McGowan (LIB) – 1.005
  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.975
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.882

The final margin for the Greens over the DLP was about 0.9 quotas.

  • Puglielli (GRN) – 0.975
  • Dolan (DLP) – 0.887

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in North Eastern Metropolitan in 2022.

Labor came first in the upper house vote in eight electorates, while the Liberal Party came first in Bulleen, Croydon and Warrandyte.

Labor’s primary vote was highest in Mill Park, Bundoora, Box Hill and Glen Waverley, polling over 36% in each electorate.

The Liberal primary vote was highest in Bulleen and Warrandyte, but was under 20% in Mill Park.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 5.2% in Mill Park to 16.3% in Ivanhoe.

Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Not expecting much change here at this stage, even if there is a statewide primary swing against Labor I suspect it will be pretty small here