Warrandyte – Victoria 2026

Nicole Werner has a very large social media presence and is part of the religious right which might hurt her here as parts like North Warrandyte and Warrandyte will unlikely warm to that type of politics. I am aware that there are more conservative parts of the electorate but even area like Park Orchards or Donvale won’t like the religious right style politics. Traditionally I would have said a sophomore surge given her high visibility but, given her stances on particular issues and religious right not being popular in Victoria I’m not convinced that this will be easy for her to win. Nicole Werner has only won this seat at by-election where Labor didn’t contest and the state government was unpopular at that time and the media was laser focused on it.

i went to primary school in this area and live in the neighbouring seat of Bulleen it is not small l liberal rather than it like the Hills District/Hornsby council except for North Warrandyte which is progressive and always votes Left so Liberal retain and the should see a swing inline with statewide swing. It is older wealthier demographic and no renters etc

Have mixed feelings about Nicole Warner, however her passion and humor are great and I could see her being Jess Wilson’s deputy.

Labor shouldn’t write this off.

Labor sat out the by-election and the Green vote is a poor proxy for it, particularly with middle class, non white and religious voters.

In hindsight the Greens performance was quite strong and the swing to them can’t all be put down to Labor not running. With a similar quality campaign and candidate, plus Labor actually trying, Labor might just be able to pull off a win here.

I concur with BNJ. Labor would’ve never thought that even in a more favourable electoral cycle they would win Deakin and Menzies, yet they did this year. This seat is a combination of Menzies, Jagajaga and Deakin so it’s entirely possible that they could at least be competitive. They’ll lose seats elsewhere so they’ll need to find new pickups and I’d say other than Richmond, Prahran, Melbourne, Hawthorn, this should be a seat that they need to invest in.

i cant see the Labor party winning this unless they got about 61% of the TPP statewide so it was a very asinine comment to suggest Labor actually trying especially in an election where they are expected to loose seats. Labor has not won a 4th term so that is a hurdle to overcome. Yes Labor won this seat in the 1980s but there are two qualifications
1. Boundaries are different as they used to be a Doncaster electorate
2. In the 1980s much of the suburban parts of the electorates were mortgage belt now they are established and wealthier.

Apart from Doncaster East the rest of the electorate is extremely White.

I concur with SpaceFish on her level of visibility, I’m from Sydney and I often see her Instagram posts (FYI: I don’t follow any Liberal MP’s accounts), so she seems to be quite a proactive MP and doesn’t seem to be taking the seat for granted. Visibility on social media especially in a more digital world is something that is essential for MPs across the political spectrum to communicate easier with constituents and in my instance, even outside of electorates.

@ Tommo9
as someone who grew up in this area let me be honest
1. This seat would be Liberal held safely on Federal results. Menzies was won by Labor due Whitehorse council if it was entirely Manningham council Libs would still win it
2. I dont believe State Labor is very popular here there are no level crossings, rail lines while it is not as wealthy as the Teal seats it is the second tier so private school payroll tax, land tax will still be an issue to an extent
3. The Danger with your strategy for law to win more educated/affluent seats it is essence means labor is forgetting its heartland so you are in essence validting the realignment theory. Even if Labor wins Hawthorn it will not be heartland that is the problem while if they build Melton electrification they can put Melton out of reach

*labor to win

Agree Nimalan, when a party is on a downward trajectory like Victorian Labor – the best strategy is to focus on sandbagging all the critical marginal seats, namely all the outer metropolitan seats (main ones would be Sunbury, Melton, Yan Yean and the Frankston line ones with a possibility of extending this to include Pakenham and Hastings).

This is what Federal Labor was focussed on at the recent election on the assumption that their vote would remain steady or go down slightly, and the additional seats gained were seen as a bonus that they do not need to hold onto for future cycles.

Agree Yoh An
I still think despite Victorian Liberal party’s issues State Labor is on a downward trajectory so it might be more like the 2007 NSW election where a government with problems was elected despite having issues as the alternative was unelectable. I think Victorian Labor is towards its twilight. There is a path to retain Sunbury, Melton and Yan Yean maybe narrowly. They must not do a Hillary try to win Texas but loose Pennyslvania.

Yes, the upcoming Victorian election is giving off vibes of NSW 2007 or Queensland 2009 which featured a new Labor leader seeking a full term in their own right. In both states – the government of the day was seen as somewhat stale/worn out, but the opposition was also considered to be in disarray without a clear focus. As a result, both states saw the incumbent government returned with a reduced majority.

Yoh An
Very good election analogy – and of course we know what happened after that – wipeouts in NSW in 2011 and Queensland in 2012.

Agree redistributed, that is the danger for Jacinta Allen and state Labor. Any significant/major mistakes or mishaps that occur in the next parliamentary term could be fatal, especially if the Coalition and Liberal Party manage to reunite and hone their messaging.

An upshot to this is that if Allen and the state party manage to stay on focus, they could minimise their losses for 2030 like Jay Weatherill in SA 2018, Dom Perrottet in NSW 2023 or Steven Miles in Queensland 2024 who led their parties to narrow or modest defeats.

This reminds me of Bolte
Labor was seen as unfit to govern so the libs got relected.
Seems familiar

If the Liberals implode even more after a 2026 election loss – say they gain a few seats but have another disappointing result overall – I wouldn’t rule out an era like 1955-82 where one party governed for 27 years.

And a disappointing 2026 election for the Liberals is definitely a possibility, I would never underestimate Victorian Labor’s ability to campaign well and sandbag seats, just as I would never underestimate the divided and under-resourced Victorian Liberals’ ability to make a complete mess of a campaign.

Trent
For the Libs you left out “and pick diabolically bad candidates”

Jacinta Allen will be lucky if shes still in parliament come 2030. this is the best chance the coalition have ever had to win back Bendigo East since 2010. obviously not for the libs but the nats are a real shot at winning it if Lathlean runs. i know il be there helping them out.

bare minimum they need to win those 8 marginals and probably Ashwood, Eureka and Sunbury.

@Nimalan + Nicole Werner seems very popular, and honestly should be a leadership candidate if Battin loses in 2026

Scart,
Popular with the membership but not the voter base.

Nicole Werner doesn’t seem to be very outspoken publicly on religious right issues unlike Moira Deeming, Renee Heath, Ann-Marie Hermanns or Bev McArthur. She possibly has the same views personally but I do not think it would be an issue that would affect her, a bit like how Perrottet avoided focusing on culture war and religious right issues despite being an arch social conservative. With her popularity on social media, the Libs would be wise to stick her face on every ad and how to vote card so voters recognise her and link her to the party brand.

It appears Warrandyte would be a Liberal seat if federal results were replicated. This is despite federal Labor’s high watermark and overperformance and the Liberals’ disastrous campaign. State Labor is unlikely to replicate federal Labor’s result at the next state election.

I agree with @Scart, Nicole Werner’s been very active on social media and in the community so she’ll most likely hold on with an increased margin.

Where would Keith wolahan run at a state level if. The state libs poach him? Box Hill or Ringwood?

I doubt it John, he’ll likely have a crack at Menzies in 2028. Menzies doesn’t or so little that it doesn’t count of Ringwood so he wouldn’t run there. Maybe if Mathew Guy retired then he could contest Bulleen but I doubt any of that will happen.

I wonder if this seat and Bulleen are one of the few seats that are Labor Proof, Teal Proof and ONP proof. In the Evelyn thread we determined that Evelyn thread that Evelyn was Labor Proof and Teal proof but not ONP proof. This seat is a bit higher SES to be won by Labor or ONP but not affluent enough to be won by a Teal. In the 1980s Labor won this seat but it is not a good comparision as there was a Doncaster electorate and most of the suburban part such as Warranwood, Ringwood North and Croydon Hills which were previously in the seat were mortgage belt suburbs which today are now settled and affluent suburbs

The suburban rail loop will be going through this seat in Doncaster plus there seems to be more units being put up through Doncaster which definitely benefit Labor in the long run. I don’t think this is out of the realm of possibilities but I agree I don’t see Bulleen at all moving to Labor, Teal or One Nation and it would be an ideal seat for a leader.

@ Spacefish
I actually live in Bulleen electorate. I think central Doncaster is trending left due to densification but the suburb of Bulleen and parts Lower Templestowe are moving rightwards as they become more affluent They were traditionally less affluent as they had post War smaller housing stock compared to McMansions in other parts of Manningham. Bulleen and Lower Templestowe also have a higher share of Southern Europeans who I believe are trending right i think this in part why Menzies had a smaller swing than Deakin or Aston at the federal election. Growing up in Manningham i always felt it was socially conservative on family values but more open on ethnic minorities and climate which is why it tends to attract more affluent ethnic minorities.

Nimalan
Part of the small swing in Menzies waa that Keith Wholohan was a hard working and highly thought of MP – and geez the Liberals really need him now. Michael Sukkar was hard working but his social positions pissed a lot people off – and he came over as a bit of a toad. Mary Doyle – very personable. All were hindered or helped by the Dutton factor. Even with growth in Doncaster, the area is growing slowly so these seats will end up expanding outwards somehow. Also, in Doncaster, as in Box Hill, new apartments don’t necessarily translate into floods of votes – there would seem to be lots of non citizens hence non voters.

An interesting part of Warrandyte is the sizeable Iranian community. Most seem upper middle class – professionals, etc. Where do their vote go? Are they a bloc?

@Redistributed
I agree with your points mentioned above. I do concur Keith Wolahan was a great MP as i was actually torn and told the Liberal volunteer on election day that i like Keith Wolahan but Dutton was Toxic. I would just add i feel Menzies also had a smaller swing, in addition to Keith Wolahan being well liked, the fact that i feel it has a more stubborn Liberal vote compared being the most affluent of the 3 seats. Mary Doyle helped maximise the Swing in Aston from 2022 General election being a sitting MP that was well liked but i feel Aston Liberal vote was softer than Menzies (due to less afflience) and once Labor worked hard there were more votes to be harvested. With respect to Iranian community i feel Keith Wolahan was liked as he was an advocate againt the Islamic Republic regime most of the community have Pro Western Foreign policy views so they are not Pro-Palestinian. Interestingly while Menzies is diverse its share of other ethnic communities such as South Asians, Pacific Islanders, Vietnamese and Muslims are below Greater Melbourne average. It is really only the Chinese and Iranian communities that are above Greater Melbourne average