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Labor hold, changing demographics will help them out here.
It’s unlikely the Libs will win this seat. The densification around Box Hill Central is making this seat stronger for Labor. The Libs scaring off Chinese voters over the past few elections won’t do them any favours. However the Libs will need to win this seat if they want a chance to form government. Preselecting a candidate from that community would be the first step the Libs can do.
Densification and changing demographics won’t help the Liberals. The Liberals have let Box Hill and Ashwood (formerly Burwood) slip away. They used to be part of Kennett’s heartland.
@Votante both had more favourable boundaries for the Libs during the Kennett years, taking in affluent areas like Camberwell and Balwyn which they don’t anymore and instead have more marginal middle class areas. But even then these seats should still be comfortable ones for the Libs that they shouldn’t need to worry about. If the Libs can’t win them back, they won’t be able to form government.
The sole booth Surrey Hills that the Liberals won in 2022 and swung to them was in protest to the works on the station upgrade as it was blocking everywhere, I would say now that anger will have gone away and people can see the benefits of the changes through there.
Agreed Surrey Hills will swing back to Labor now the station upgrade is complete. Mont Albert might also swing to Labor as well. There were double digit swings to Labor in both areas at the federal election. Jess Wilson actually lives in Mont Albert so really she should be contesting here instead of Kew. This is the sort of seat she should appeal to particularly the affluent western end of Surrey Hills and Mont Albert.
Excluding suburbs separated by rivers, creeks or other waterways, or railways/motorways, Box Hill and Mont Albert would have to be the most different suburbs that are side by side anywhere in Australia, in Melbourne at the very least.
Socioeconomically, if not physically, you could probably make an argument there for Heidelberg and West Heidelberg.
Paul Hamer is under some pressure from the issue of the Blackburn Activity Centre. He is not shying away from it which is good but it is not popular in the Blackburn area. Almost every second house in the Box Hill end of the south side of Blackburn has a Liberal Party sponsored poster outside their house. Not so much north of the railway line but some. The Liberals know they have a hot button issue here. This could be a Liberal win if they pick the right candidate.
Interesting @redistributed,
I remember during the federal election in Aston I mostly saw Liberal signs so it will be interesting to see if it’s momentum for the Liberals or a small minority that are angry. From the feedback I’ve heard most people are happy with activity centres or understand why it’s needed.