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Labor hold, changing demographics will help them out here.
It’s unlikely the Libs will win this seat. The densification around Box Hill Central is making this seat stronger for Labor. The Libs scaring off Chinese voters over the past few elections won’t do them any favours. However the Libs will need to win this seat if they want a chance to form government. Preselecting a candidate from that community would be the first step the Libs can do.
Densification and changing demographics won’t help the Liberals. The Liberals have let Box Hill and Ashwood (formerly Burwood) slip away. They used to be part of Kennett’s heartland.
@Votante both had more favourable boundaries for the Libs during the Kennett years, taking in affluent areas like Camberwell and Balwyn which they don’t anymore and instead have more marginal middle class areas. But even then these seats should still be comfortable ones for the Libs that they shouldn’t need to worry about. If the Libs can’t win them back, they won’t be able to form government.