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I’m hearing Fowles might run as a sort of spoiler candidate here
I don’t he has much of a personal vote more Ringwood has shifted in Labor favour. I looked at the federal results and in Hethmont west booth for example Labor almost does 9 points better, while I’m not saying it will instantly transfer over I’m just pointing out that Labor brand in this part of Melbourne is holding up well.
I was supposed to say Labor has improved on their state results at the federal level.
Labor hold.
This is my electorate. Will Fowles is a political eunuch – didn’t turn up to parliament for months and does nothing that would ‘offend’ the Labor Party – you get the impression that he really wants to be let back in. Besides that he is invisible in the community – and in his facebook stuff it is always about the eastern end of the electorate – the further west the more ignored. We get stuff in our letterbox from Paul Hamer and we are outside his electorate. I still suspect Hayley Weller (Whitehorse Councillor) might be put up as the Labor candidate. It was an awful candidate choice at the last election with both candidates parachuted in. The Liberal candidate – Cynthia Watson – was particularly bad. Planning and density is a big issue and this might hurt Labor badly particularly in Blackburn and Mitcham. I wouldn’t write the Libs off if they put up a decent local candidate – but unclear if they are capable of that.
I’ve been told Nick McGowan might try to move across from the LC but that feels bold on his part
If will Fowler reconnect he will probably hand it to the libs
Very interesting that in the Ringwood South booth the Greens narrowly missed out on second place.
Indeed SpaceFish – Greens are surprisingly strong in this area. They had a swing against them in Deakin last year – some of that was buried in teal Jess Ness’ vote but they also took a small hit on 3CP.
As far as I can tell the Greens MLC for Eastern Metro is a terminally online 20something tiktok leftie and I’ve never once seen him post about his electorate. Samantha Dunn seemed more like the type of Green that could do really well here, but she quit the party after losing her seat.
The biggest issue with Ringwood for the Greens would be that the major parties are too close in primary vote making it hard to overtake one.
I’m expecting the Greens to increase their primary vote here.