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This seat is vulnerable and appears to have the more Liberal friendly parts of whitehorse council and John Mullahy is fairly new. While the other neighbouring seats have gone under a lot of development most of this electorate is quite established and has changed quite a lot so if the Liberals have a good night I can see them pealing this off.
The only reason why Labor didn’t win this seat in 2018 was that Neil Angus was an well known incumbent but became Angus became anti-vax since covid which was why he lost that advantage in 2022.
I wonder given the annoucement today that the Liberals (first by opposition transport spokesman Matthew Guy, and then backed by Opposition Leader Brad Battin) will commit to SRL East if the boring machines are already tunnelling by the next election (which they likely will be regardless of cost blowouts), if that actually helps them in swinging voters, in the sense that if voters know they’ll get at least that section of SRL completed regardless, then other issues will come to the fore on who to vote for. Glen Waverley will be one of those key electorates with numerous roadworks constantly ongoing in the area.
With SRL East more or less set in stone then, even if the remainder doesn’t get built (putting aside the branding of airport rail as “SRL Airport”), it could be rebranded as a university/eastern suburbs line, although the bit of SRL North that reaches Doncaster should be included so that it finally gets a long overdue train line.
This is a seat that previously was among the safest for the Libs. They cannot even consider a minority government without this seat. But the Libs in recent years have completely collapsed in seats like this.