Glen Waverley – Victoria 2026

This seat is vulnerable and appears to have the more Liberal friendly parts of whitehorse council and John Mullahy is fairly new. While the other neighbouring seats have gone under a lot of development most of this electorate is quite established and has changed quite a lot so if the Liberals have a good night I can see them pealing this off.

The only reason why Labor didn’t win this seat in 2018 was that Neil Angus was an well known incumbent but became Angus became anti-vax since covid which was why he lost that advantage in 2022.

I wonder given the annoucement today that the Liberals (first by opposition transport spokesman Matthew Guy, and then backed by Opposition Leader Brad Battin) will commit to SRL East if the boring machines are already tunnelling by the next election (which they likely will be regardless of cost blowouts), if that actually helps them in swinging voters, in the sense that if voters know they’ll get at least that section of SRL completed regardless, then other issues will come to the fore on who to vote for. Glen Waverley will be one of those key electorates with numerous roadworks constantly ongoing in the area.

With SRL East more or less set in stone then, even if the remainder doesn’t get built (putting aside the branding of airport rail as “SRL Airport”), it could be rebranded as a university/eastern suburbs line, although the bit of SRL North that reaches Doncaster should be included so that it finally gets a long overdue train line.

This is a seat that previously was among the safest for the Libs. They cannot even consider a minority government without this seat. But the Libs in recent years have completely collapsed in seats like this.

Feel that switching leaders to Wilson has probably done a lot to help the Liberals here, if they are able to achieve a 6-7% statewide swing i’d say this one is nearly certain to go. Under Battin with his focus on crime and outer suburban appeal you could have argued he was looking at double digit swings in safer Labor seats but would go nowhere in places like here but I think the effect of Wilson and her potential policy angles probably evens out whatever swing the Liberals get to at least some degree across the state.

You would think this would be one of the first to go, but what ever happened to the Liberals commitment to SRL East ‘if boring machines are already tunneling’? Jess Wilson has gone back to to the line that they will ‘pause’ (euphemism for cancel) the project.

I was in Glen Waverley recently and the work on the SRL might actually help Labor out but that’s not a certainty.

Is the Labor margin a bit inflated here and in the eastern suburbs?

There were swings to Labor in Glen Waverley and other neighbouring seats. I believe that in 2022, Labor’s Covid policies, compared to the Liberals’, were better perceived here. Tapping into anti-lockdown anger wasn’t going to work well with middle or upper-class voters or Chinese migrants. The pandemic is now a non-factor.

There was also Labor’s promise of the SRL. I’m not sure how much of a vote winner it is still. Infrastructure helped Labor win the 2018 and 2022 elections, to a certain extent.

A wild card factor is whether the Liberals can connect with and win over CALD communities. The breakdown of relations between the Liberals and CALD communities, especially ethnic Chinese, was cited as a reason for the Coalition’s losses at the 2022 federal and Vic state elections. I’m not sure if there have been changes since then now that Morrison and Dutton have left politics.

I feel like for the electorates where SRL is currently under going works, it’s neither a dealbreaker nor a vote winner either. For them, there’s something tangible they can see that work is undergoing to deliver infrastructure, but at the same time, frustration that there’ll be road works for quite awhile. That and the state Libs admitting that if tunnelling has gone ahead where it would be too costly to stop them permanently, they’d just continue the project in the end (at least for SRL East) even after the initial pause were they to win the election.

As for the ethnic Chinese community, I think they’re a pragmatic demographic – so long as they don’t feel like they’re being vilified (ala Morrison and Dutton federal Libs), they’re open to switching their vote but ultimately want to see delivered results in their local electorates. I point to how they were slow to back Vic Labor in 2014, but once they saw that they were satisfied with them during their first term, swung behind them in 2018 and then 2022.

The only reason why Liberals won in 2018 in the previous seat of Forest Hill was that Neil Angus was an active incumbent however he became anti-vax and bizarrely compared vaccine mandates to apartheid which is very unappealing in this seat

It’s not just the SRL and COVID policies that have helped Labor here because they have also done well in Chisholm and Deakin federally where those issues were less relevant. Although Dutton was perceived as being racist which would have hurt the Liberals in this area which is obviously very multicultural. It goes without saying that Liberals can’t win without this seat.

I think Glen Waverley will be a seat, like Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood, that will keep trending away from the Liberals in the long-run. Lots of densification and diversification in the population structure of these areas, add to that advanced infrastructure and transport (level crossing removals, SRL etc.). Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Clayton are the three biggest areas for Chinese Australians and the ALP has done very well with these voters. Given that the Liberals in Victoria are still hellbent on socially conservative policies (unless things shift big time with Wilson at the helm), it won’t help them in these areas apart from maybe Bulleen given how conservative Doncaster and Templestowe generally are.

With Jess Wilson as leader, I don’t think that will be the case to any great degree

Box Hill will be the only seat in this area where I think Labor have a 50/50 shot of holding

@ Tommo9
While there has been denisfication around Glen Waverly station i dont think that is the main issue. An area like Glen Waverley will not be of interest to someone with Green Left views. The Type of renter here is different largely CALD and wanting to get thier kids into a good school. Also there are some huge houses in parts of this area like Eastern Glen Waverley, Wheelers Hill and parts of Vermont which are all middle class areas. I do concede level crossing removals, SRL is popular here.
The concern now is that Labor is winning booths like Mount View PS booth, Jells Park PS booths and Vermont booths all of which should be solid blue. There is no hope for Libs to form government without winning Ringwood, Ashwood and Glen Waverley maybe they can afford not to win Box Hill if they win a seat elsewhere like Point Cook.

Nimalan, would this seat be similar to somewhere like Ryde or Epping in NSW? I know both seats are undergoing densification with new apartments being built, which are attractive for new Asian migrants moving into the area.

The Liberals in both states (NSW and Victoria) need to keep their hold on these middle-class types of districts, which are essential to building a majority.

People overrate the number of new apartments, often they will be built on main roads and near high streets, however, large parts are not seeing enough new builds to make a significant change to an area.

I do agree that the Victorian Liberals need to remain committed to most of the infrastructure program that Labor have developed, as these communities will benefit greatly. In fact, I see the SRL rail link akin to either the Epping to Chatswood (ECRL) or Northwest rail lines, providing a new cross city route and enabling easier transportation to major business and commercial hubs.

They’ll likely have to – it’s already going to cost 6bn to break the contracts last I heard, that said they can put the project on ice for a while maybe?

@ Yoh An
I would agree this area like Ryde-Epping area in Sydney but if there is one suburb i would directly compare Glen Waverley to it would be Carlingford. Both areas are streotyped to be almost nerdy type suburbs. Wheelers Hill maybe like West Pennant Hills with huge houses. There are also campuses of elite Private Schools Wesley College/Caulfield Grammar in this seat so a must win seat for Labor.
I do accept Pencil’s point that people often overstate the number of new apartments in Glen Waverley they are being built next to the activity centre which is why people often overstate their impact. Much of the rest of the seat is known for quiet suburban streets and sports grounds, parks etc. Doncaster is a lot of apartments but i dont see people saying Labor will win Bulleen due to that fact.

I realistically think the libs can win Glen Waverley Bayswater Ashwood and possibly Ringwood. That would make Paul Hamer the last labor mp standing in this area.

If the Liberals strategise and have a good election then they can pick up either: Glen Waverley, Bayswater or Ashwood. In 2022, these seats plus Ringwood and Box Hill swung to Labor by 4% to 5% 2PP. In Glen Waverley’s case, went from notionally Liberal to Labor.

It’s likely all seats in 2026 will swing in the same direction but not by the same amount. An anti-lockdown or anti-vax Liberal candidate won’t be an issue like in 2022.

Box Hill is perhaps friendlier to Labor because of new infrastructure (not just SRL) and a commercial and residential property boom and an influx of white-collar professionals. It has a 7.2% margin so there’s a fair buffer.