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This seats margin is inflated and has been close with it almost flipping in 2010. If the Liberals were to be more moderate then they could peal this off Labor. It’s worth noting that the Liberals have not held a metropolitan electorate on the western side of the Yarra at all this century so the odds are not in their favour.
i live in the neighbouring seat of Bulleen while this seat is North of the Yarra it is high SES and Upper Middle Class. It is socially progresisve on Climate, LGBT, Voice etc so i think Pesutto could have had a chance but Moira Deeming will be a liability here as is a focus on Social conservative. However, this seat is fiscally conservative.
the libs will probably work their way in here probly not a gain but could pull it back to marginal and hope for a favourable redistribution
This is a seat the Libs should have won in 2010 along with Albert Park and Ivanhoe. If they had won, they wouldn’t have been reduce to minority in 2013 and they might have been able to hang on in 2014 and history would have been very different.
Doubtful 2014 was a pretty decisive election loss.
The neighbouring seats of Ivanhoe, Bundoora, Eildon, Warrandye and Bulleen are all slow growing as is Eltham so if there is no expansion by 2030 then all will need to expand. Yan Yean is fast growing however, and is the exception in this part of Melbourne. The problem is if Yan Yean loses Plenty/Yarrambat to Eltham it will help the Libs but make Yan Yean very difficult for Labor to win. In 2010, Eltham was the most marginal Labor seat following the election and the Libs just missed out on it.
I assume you meant difficult for libs to win Yan yean?
Liberals would only be competitive if they had a Ted Baillieu style leader here. But I agree with Nimalan that Plenty/ Yarrambat will likely be added to seat. John you’re right it will make Yan Yean more difficult to win especially as it’s population become more urban.
@John If the Libs achieve a 2014 election result in 2026, it will be a massive win. Goes to show how far back they have fallen.
It depends how they shift the seat as well as Elidon could be abolished and it could gain Hurstbridge which would help Labor out and the Greens.
Spacefish yes that is my plan also. Libs should focus their resources here because it will set them up to win the seat in 2030. They can probably win Yan yean in 2026 but will likely lose it again in 2030. Yan yean can also lose its parts of mitchell
@ SpaceFish/John
Thats what i mean, Yan Yean will become more urbanised longer term so i think 2026 is the best and maybe final chance for Liberal. I made to a typo.