Eltham – Victoria 2026

This seats margin is inflated and has been close with it almost flipping in 2010. If the Liberals were to be more moderate then they could peal this off Labor. It’s worth noting that the Liberals have not held a metropolitan electorate on the western side of the Yarra at all this century so the odds are not in their favour.

i live in the neighbouring seat of Bulleen while this seat is North of the Yarra it is high SES and Upper Middle Class. It is socially progresisve on Climate, LGBT, Voice etc so i think Pesutto could have had a chance but Moira Deeming will be a liability here as is a focus on Social conservative. However, this seat is fiscally conservative.

the libs will probably work their way in here probly not a gain but could pull it back to marginal and hope for a favourable redistribution

This is a seat the Libs should have won in 2010 along with Albert Park and Ivanhoe. If they had won, they wouldn’t have been reduce to minority in 2013 and they might have been able to hang on in 2014 and history would have been very different.

Doubtful 2014 was a pretty decisive election loss.

The neighbouring seats of Ivanhoe, Bundoora, Eildon, Warrandye and Bulleen are all slow growing as is Eltham so if there is no expansion by 2030 then all will need to expand. Yan Yean is fast growing however, and is the exception in this part of Melbourne. The problem is if Yan Yean loses Plenty/Yarrambat to Eltham it will help the Libs but make Yan Yean very difficult for Labor to win. In 2010, Eltham was the most marginal Labor seat following the election and the Libs just missed out on it.

I assume you meant difficult for libs to win Yan yean?

Liberals would only be competitive if they had a Ted Baillieu style leader here. But I agree with Nimalan that Plenty/ Yarrambat will likely be added to seat. John you’re right it will make Yan Yean more difficult to win especially as it’s population become more urban.

@John If the Libs achieve a 2014 election result in 2026, it will be a massive win. Goes to show how far back they have fallen.

It depends how they shift the seat as well as Elidon could be abolished and it could gain Hurstbridge which would help Labor out and the Greens.

Spacefish yes that is my plan also. Libs should focus their resources here because it will set them up to win the seat in 2030. They can probably win Yan yean in 2026 but will likely lose it again in 2030. Yan yean can also lose its parts of mitchell

@ SpaceFish/John
Thats what i mean, Yan Yean will become more urbanised longer term so i think 2026 is the best and maybe final chance for Liberal. I made to a typo.

Liberals seem to be running hard here, have pre-selected a local candidate the Jess Wilson was campaigning here last week, definitely a viable gain if the swing is now looking at 7-9% statewide as per latest polling, ONP won’t clear 20% here

Latest MRP has Labor 28% Liberal 27% Green 14% One Nation 23%, I am not convinced by that polling at all.

This is one of those seats with an older, whiter, outer suburban demographic that is stubbornly progressive in a way that appears quite localised even though on paper ONP looks like they’d do well here, not unlike Monbulk. Agree those primary numbers look fanciful given the local factors

Fun Fact to know. In 1992 Eltham had the biggest swing to Liberals. It was the most marginal labor electorate after 2010 election when the Libs came within 1% of winning the seat. The margins are bigger for Labor than during the Bracks era and that is probbaly a reflection of Libs underperfoming among Tealish professional voters like they have underperformed Inner East and Bayside as well. There seems to be a strong Liberal campaign here and Jess Wilson has been to Eltham multiple times. I do think Paul Byrnes they candiate is good fit an APS Lawyer in a highly educated seat that has a lot public sector workers.

I do think if the statewide trend more or less continues on as is that we will see some surprisingly large swings to the Liberals in seats where their vote has drifted due to being perceived as more culturally right wing and they haven’t bothered to run much of a campaign in recent cycles. Essendon and Geelong come to mind as well but Eltham is certainly more winnable this cycle

@ Maxim
What about Ivanhoe and Macedon which are socially progressive as well but often have affluent Fiscally Conservative voters

Macedon as well, especially being an open seat in a sprawling electorate that covers many small towns (somewhat like Lyons in TAS) where a long-time local MP can build up a large profile over time and really use incumbency well. Being a regional seat that is subject to some of the statewide regional concerns only helps too, and there’s no threat from ONP

Ivanhoe I think is a bridge too far, even with a ripper candidate and a big campaign the Liberals would need a landslide to win there, Bundoora probably in the same boat

Agree Maxim
Ivanhoe is probably a bridge to far. Compared to Bundorora Ivanhoe is wealthier especially the riverside suburbs while Bundoora is entry level middle class and a transition zone a bit like Niddrie or Mulgrave where the two Melbourne’s meet.

Its embarassing that Ivanhoe is one of Labors safest seats and that Eltham is held by Labor on a 9% margin. Both seats are safer for Labor than they were in the 2002 Brackslide. The Liberals came within 2% of winning both of them in 2010 and they remained marginal in 2014. The results of the 2018 and 2022 election in these areas really shows how poorly the Victorian Liberals have performed with socially liberal professional voters, and upper middle class voters which is where the biggest swings have been. Id argue that Eltham and Ivanhoe have changed little since 2014 while they are densifying, the demographics are the same.

Its a classic example of the party leaving the voters rather than the voters leaving the party. Neither seats have been given flashy new infrastructure projects like the Middle ring east or even level crossing removals like the Sandbelt (there has been 1 in Rosanna in Ivanhoe electorate). So its really just Liberal incompetence and the party chasing the freedom vote in 2022 which has alienated voters in the leafy northeast. They should learn from their mistakes and start taking moderate voters seriously. I think Labor will cop a big swing but will hang on in both seats but they will be within reach for the Libs in 2030.

@ Upthehawks i live in neighbourirng electorate of Bulleen and know both Ivanhoe and Eltham well there has been some densification in Heidelberg but not as much compared to Box Hill say. Furthermore both seats have not really become ethnically diverse unlike say the Casey council seats which maybe helping Labor. There has been one level crossing removal in Rosanna and one in Macleod is underway there has been some rail duplicaiton between Heidelberg and Rosanna & Greensborough to Eltham. I do think it is fact moderate voters have been Alientated i think people over estimate densification there has been densification in the Sutherland Shire as well but that is not helping Labor so i feel that is just an excuse rather than a reason.

Furthermore in 2014, while the Libs lost the election they won the Southbank booth by 51% TPP. Southbank has always been dense since its inception
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2018/guide/albe

I think the big thing in this seat and neighbouring Ivanhoe is the Northeast Link. It’s well underway and construction is very prominent in the area. I’d tend to think it would be a positive for this community and therefore a positive for Labor, but with clouds around CFMEU corruption maybe not.