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Labor retain. Above average swing to Libs due to correction and local MP being police minister
Huge margin for Labor but this really should be a marginal .
With West Heidelburg and Bellfield in the electorate it won’t get close to a Liberal win. They had an adverse redistribution in 1992 and just held on. It was lost to Labor in 1996 and has been Labor ever since. The demographics and geography mean that the Libs have no chance as it will only ever go further into safe Labor territory – unless it lost Heidelberg West and stretched up into Lower Plenty but that is probably very unlikely.
In the 2022 thread i made some comments on Ivanhoe.
I live in the neighbouring seat of Bulleen and now this seat very well.Is true that that prior to 1992 when the West Heidelberg Public Housing area was not included Ivanhoe was a safe Liberal seats which only fell to Labor in landslide elections such as 1952&1982. Ivanhoe maybe the most unequal seat in the state with a huge gap between West Heidelberg on one hand and Eaglemont on the other. The rest of Ivanhoe includes standard middle class Yallambie and Macleod and more Upper middle class areas such as Viewbank/Rosanna as they are close to the River. Ivanhoe was lost in 1996 due to controversy surrounding the future of the Austin Hospital.
@Redistributed they did get close to a win with West heidelberg in the electorate. After 2010 it was on less than 2%… West heidelberg labor votes been stable its Ivanhoe central/Heidelberg/Rosanna that swung hard to Labor between then and now
@Up the Dragons
Does not surpise me with West Heidelberg is stable since it is not a swing suburb. Suburbs like Rosanna/Viewbank are like Blackburn so there are swingy suburbs. For Libs to do well here there need to be Labor Lite on Social issues but different on economic issues.
I reckon the Greens will improve their primary vote here at the next state election.
Since this seat has strong geographic boundaries on three sides (the Yarra and Darebin Creek), it’s unlikely to change radically in future redistributions – most likely only a modest expansion of its northern boundary, which wouldn’t change its political complexion much.
In its post-1992 form this is a seat the Liberals would hold only in a big win (like 1992). 2010 was relatively close (1.6%) but a messy Labor preselection probably contributed to that.