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This seat had the highest vote for the Freedom Party and they got 7%. The Freedom Party still exists but since the end of the Pandemic they have moved to Nationalism. They have attacked Albo for recognises a Palestinian state, endorsed March for Australia protest and last weekends Put Australia First Rally. I cant see the Freedom Party doing well among Non Europeans in 2026 but they may maintain/increase support among Southern/Eastern Europeans which make a large proportion of this seat.
@Nimalan it’s probably to do with their Christian values but Southern/Eastern European Australians are some of the most socially conservative individuals you’ll meet. There’s a Croatian soccer club in Sydney called Sydney United that have a big problem with Ustaše supporters and the club doesn’t really care (and multiple other Croatian clubs are similar).
When people found out Noah Botić (now plays for Austria Vienna but back then played for the old Western United) is conservative and follows Trump and a Trump fanpage on Insta (he also celebrated a goal with a Trump dance), I remember someone on the A-League subreddit joking about the fact that Trump would be left of what many socially conservative, strictly Catholic and patriotic/nationalistic Croatian Australian men believe.
In saying that though most of Reddit is quite left-wing and an echo chamber, the only right-wing Australian sub is the Circlejerk Australia one.
@ Nether Portal
I agree there are quite socially conservative and unlike Muslims for instance they are accepted by the Right. Even has they have integrated they have largely retained their religious and social Conservativism. In the US the base of the Reagon Democrats and even some Trump voters in the Rust belt for example Macomb County (Michigan) has a large Slavic Community.As time has passed they have also become wealthier so no longer really need Labor and younger generations in these communities have never experienced being bullied for tehheir . On the topic of Croatian soccer fans see below they were Welcome to country being booed. In Mill Park it is mostly Macedonians not Croatians followed by a large Italian Community and some Greeks as well. Croatians can be found in Sydenham/Kororit etc where there is also a Maltese Community
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-02/sydney-united-fans-nazi-salutes-welcome-to-country-booed/101494818
*being bullied for their ethnicity etc.
Just a wild though – did this seat over-swing in 2022? The 13.3% 2PP swing was huge. The Labor vote probably has hit the floor in 2022 and isn’t naturally this low. I get that there was a huge Freedom Party vote and there was anger stemming from lockdowns.
If there was an over-swing then Labor might recover its 2PP a bit. The Freedom Party vote might decrease or disappear. If left-wing minor parties (e.g. Vic Socialists) fill the void in the non-Labor help Labor. One Nation could become a wild-card entrant and become the leading right-wing minor party.
@ Votante
I do think there was an over-swing and this is not a traditional swing seat. The point i was alluding to in this and the Thomastown thread is that Non European voters who are disastisfied with the Labor may choose Victorian Socialists and Greens instead as we saw at the Federal level in working class CALD communities. ONP may do well but i as i mentioned below i dont expect them to do well among Non Europeans in this seat a large cohort of whom are more recent immigrants attracted to this seats affordable housing.