ALP 4.2%
Incumbent MP
Jackson Taylor, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Bayswater covers the suburbs of Bayswater, Boronia, Wantirna and parts of Ferntree Gully. Bayswater covers northern parts of the City of Knox.
History
Bayswater was created in 1992, replacing the former seat of Ringwood. It was considered to be a notional Labor seat that year, but was won by the Liberal Party’s Gordon Ashley.
Ashley held the seat until 2002, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Peter Lockwood.
In 2006, the Liberal Party initially preselected Ashley to run against Lockwood again, but the preselection was overturned and he was replaced by Heidi Victoria. Ashley ran as an independent, and Victoria won the seat.
Heidi Victoria was re-elected in 2010 and 2014, but lost in 2018 to Labor’s Jackson Taylor. Taylor was re-elected in 2022.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jackson Taylor is not running for re-election.
- Julie Buxton (Labor)
- Alec Ferguson (Victorian Socialists)
- Jess Kennedy (Greens)
- David Kitchen (Liberal)
Assessment
The Liberal Party will be hoping to pick up Bayswater. It’s not likely that One Nation will be in a position to win here but that’s not entirely clear.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jackson Taylor | Labor | 17,609 | 41.3 | +0.5 |
| Nick Wakeling | Liberal | 15,174 | 35.6 | -12.1 |
| Nadia Sirninger Rankin | Greens | 3,151 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| Ashley Heap | Legalise Cannabis | 1,653 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Gary Coombes | Family First | 1,397 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Thomas Dolan | Democratic Labour | 948 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Chris Field | Freedom Party | 937 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Chloe Mackallah | Independent | 890 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Alyssa Wormald | Animal Justice | 840 | 2.0 | -0.6 |
| Informal | 2,512 | 5.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jackson Taylor | Labor | 23,101 | 54.2 | +4.8 |
| Nick Wakeling | Liberal | 19,498 | 45.8 | -4.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.4% in the south-east to 60.8% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 53.4 | 5,234 | 12.2 |
| West | 57.2 | 5,107 | 11.9 |
| North-East | 60.8 | 4,655 | 10.9 |
| Pre-poll | 53.0 | 20,886 | 48.9 |
| Other votes | 51.3 | 6,862 | 16.1 |
Election results in Bayswater at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
not atm but im hoping Nick Wakeling runs again.
Joh,
I don’t believe he’s interested, its likely someone new and younger will give it a crack here.
Either way if they can’t win here they’ve probably gone backwards across the state
Upgrades to the Boronia station which are due to be completed before 2026, this would suggest that Labor hasn’t given on here yet.
@SpaceFish. That was promised before the election. They were probably thinking about retaining in 2022 not thinking ahead to 2026. Although the Federal results in Aston suggest Labor shouldn’t give up here.
Even with Taylor not contesting whoever the ALP candidate is needs to have Jackson Taylor campaigning with them. He’s proven to be quite popular and the area has turned Labor friendly for the first time in forever so they need to capitalise it if they want to mitigate any other losses.
I believe Julie Buxton, who ran in Ferntree Gully in 2018, is Labor’s candidate here.
Yes she was and I believe a staffer to Jackson for a period of time.
@Menzies Labor candidate is Julie Buxton who ran in Ferntree Gully in 2018. There is no Liberal candidate yet which is strange.
Oops didn’t see the replies. Is there any info on whos nominating for Liberal preselection?
This will be a classic Labor vs Liberal contest with a One Nation wildcard.
I believe Jackson Taylor is quite popular and increased the Labor margin in an historically Liberal seat. From what I gather, part of why a swing happened last election was because of Nick Wakeling, an anti-lockdown figure, and his controversial appearance at an anti-Dan Andrews protest where some protesters called for violence.
@Votante,
This seat has seen a lot of urban infill so a lot more young families have been moving in and more diverse and tertiary educated, not necessarily saying it will save Labor but should help them out.
@Spacefish, this is seat where 10-15 years people associate it with a ‘Bogan’ area and if it could had as a sizable ON presence but agree this changed and the originals has gradually diluted.
@Marh,
Very true and I expect One Nation will do quite well through Ferntree Gully and The Basin.
There is an East/West divide here. I say Wantirna in the West of the seat is highly education and diverse more like Vermont while the rest of the seat. The thing is the Voice did well along the suburbs of the Belgrave line which are less affluent so i am not sure if ONP will do as well here for that reason even though those suburbs are much Whiter than Wantirna.
Premier visited here today and a few other minsters have been here with the Labor candidate Julie Buxton, I don’t think Labor has given up here. I did see Jess Wilson here about 3 weeks ago with David Kitchen.
The Premier was at the Angliss Hospital, Upper Ferntree Gully which is actually in Monbulk not Bayswater, though Julie Buxton, the candidate for Bayswater was there with here, along with Daniela De Martino the member for Monbulk, because the Angliss serves as the local public hospital for people in Bayswater too. Current MP Jackson Taylor was there too.
Is this the visit you were referring to, or did she make another stop in Bayswater, as if she did that would be interesting. The Boronia station rebuild in this seat is well underway and will done before the election which will help, but I can’t see it being enough, especially with the retirement of a very popular local member.
The upper house regional breakdowns in the large sample Redbridge poll paint a very encouraging picture for the Liberals in seats such as this, but also Glen Waverley, Ashwood, Ringwood and Box Hill. It had the Labor vote dropping considerably from last election in NE metro (15% or so) whilst the Liberal vote only marginally dropped, ONP had about 20% and the Greens barely moved, similar story in next door Southern metro which tells me the old Liberal heartland areas are responding well to Wilson’s leadership and Allan’s strategy of courting alienated professionals and affluent social progressives has failed, and is now exposing her working class base to the full impact of ONP as well
Yeah I dont think it is worth trying to Salvage Bayswater or Ringwood in the Eastern suburb better to try and just salvage Box Hill and Monbulk with every last resouce if that can be done.
@Maxim, I think Jess Wilson managed found ways to neutralised Labor key arguments against them such as multiculturalism however that might had come with a cost of splitting the conservative vote. The challenge for Victorian Liberals is how to consolidate their vote from potential One Nation Voters without alienating the moderate voters.
I think there may be a chance that Jacinta Allan resigns and retire soon (she already was an MP for majority of her life) and potentially replacing with a popular Labor MP as premier (maybe someone like Steve Dimopoulos).