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Heidi victoria would win for the libs if she recontested. Not sure if its on the cards for her but she would make a great addition to the libs. She has/had a large personal vote and moderate reputation. She would still be the MP if it werent for 2018 danslide.
Labor hold, Taylor has had the odds against him twice and defeated two incumbent members. I know of people who didn’t like Dan Andrews but voted for Taylor only because he was such a popular local member.
Up the dragons,
Heidi Victoria doesn’t live in the area anymore so and I have heard she has no interest in politics anymore. Given the Liberals move to right at the state level they’ll likely preselect someone from the right camp.
Jackson Taylor has announced he will not contest the 2026 election. He probably had one of biggest personal votes in the state so you would have to think this would be an easy Liberal gain. Although Aston was always talked of as the easiest Liberal gain at the Federal election this year and that didn’t eventuate. I think neighbouring Ringwood will be difficult for Labor to hold with Will Fowles leaving the party. Labor may also be vulnerable in neighbouring Monbulk.
@ Adam
Monbulk will have a sitting Labor member and Labor has a bigger margin after the 2022 election than they did after the 2006 election despite boundaries being more Pro-Liberal than the Bracks/Brumby era. If Libs get same swing as in 2026 than in 2010 they would still fall short.
Agreed with Nimalan, both this seat + Ringwood will be easier to gain than Monbulk
@adam thats because the liberal campagin collapsed trump mediscare vote buying etc. everything went wrong federally for the libs. this should be an easy pickup along with Melton for the libs
Bayswater and Ringwood are must wins for the Liberals to be able to call it a good election.
@pencil there are currently 8 marginal seats for the libs
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP 0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP 1.4%
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP 3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP 3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 4.2%
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP 4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.6%
they would need all 8 of these to call it a good election
a great election would have them winning these 3 fairly safe seats that should be winnable. ive left out Niddrie since Labor will attempt to sandbag the seat as its the deputy leaders seat.
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP 6.2%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 6.4%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 7.2%
anything more and theyre probably in govt.
Ringwood is only in play because the sitting member got into the shit with police.
John, would agree with that about the 8 marginals.
Yan Yean is probably one they can live without as the redistribution is probably gonna make it hard to hold but the other 7 are must wins. Ripon is probably gonna be easier for the nats to win. the nats can pump more resources into it and they do have a tendency to win over labor voters that would not vote liberals. ripon has a history of not swinging very much but thats in a traditional 2pp contest the addition of a nats candidate would shake that up. and i believe they intend to target it. so we’ll call that 6 they must win. from those 8 marginals.
those other 3 and maybe ringwood bendigo east and niddrie are the liberals/nationals best hopes. still thats only 14 seats and barring a labor collapse or major scandal i cant see the libs making the 17 seats needed
This isn’t great news for Labor at all and has made the Liberals chance a lot easier of getting back in.