Northern Victoria – Victoria 2026

Incumbent MLCs

  • Gaelle Broad (Nationals), since 2022
  • Wendy Lovell (Liberal), since 2002
  • Georgie Purcell (Animal Justice), since 2022
  • Jaclyn Symes (Labor), since 2014
  • Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (One Nation), since 2022

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Benambra LIB 0.9% vs IND Euroa NAT 9.9% Ovens Valley NAT 17.8%
Bendigo East ALP 10.8% Macedon ALP 9.5% Shepparton NAT 6.8% vs IND
Bendigo West ALP 14.6% Mildura NAT 1.2% vs IND Yan Yean ALP 4.3%
Eildon LIB 7.0% Murray Plains NAT 23.4%

Northern Victoria covers a large area stretching from the South Australian border to Wodonga along the Murray River, as well as including the northern fringe of Melbourne. The electorate covers the main centres of Bendigo, Mildura, Swan Hill, Wodonga and Shepparton.

The Nationals hold five seats, Labor holds four and the Liberal Party holds two.

History
The Northern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The region produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 elections: two Labor, two Liberal and one National.

The Liberal Party lost their second seat to the Shooters and Fishers party in 2014.

The Nationals and Shooters each lost their seat in 2018, with these two seats going to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Liberal Democrats.

The two major party seats changed hands again in 2022, with the Animal Justice Party and One Nation gaining seats off Hinch’s Justice and the Liberal Democrats.

2022 result

Party Votes % Swing Quota
Liberal/Nationals 162,860 35.0 +3.8 2.102
Labor 134,057 28.8 -3.0 1.731
Greens 32,399 7.0 +0.4 0.418
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 23,715 5.1 -2.8 0.306
Legalise Cannabis 22,103 4.8 +4.8 0.285
One Nation 17,306 3.7 +3.7 0.223
Liberal Democrats 9,249 2.0 -1.8 0.119
Hinch’s Justice 9,140 2.0 -2.9 0.118
Family First 7,600 1.6 +1.6 0.098
Animal Justice 7,239 1.6 -0.7 0.093
Democratic Labour 6,842 1.5 0.0 0.088
Freedom Party 4,968 1.1 +1.1 0.064
Health Australia 4,835 1.0 +0.1 0.062
Sack Dan Andrews 4,570 1.0 +1.0 0.059
Reason 3,755 0.8 +0.1 0.048
United Australia 3,620 0.8 +0.8 0.047
Companions and Pets 2,861 0.6 +0.6 0.037
Others 7,665 1.6 0.099
Informal 14,734 3.1

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Coalition retained two seats and Labor retained one seat.

Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • James McWhinney (ALP) – 0.731
  • Cate Sinclair (GRN) – 0.430
  • Josh Knight (SFF) – 0.320
  • Adam Miller (LGC) – 0.296
  • Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (ON) – 0.261
  • Georgie Purcell (AJP) – 0.255
  • Tim Quilty (LDP) – 0.246
  • Michael White (FF) – 0.158
  • Amanda Millar (LIB) – 0.157
  • Tania Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.124

Hinch’s Justice preferences pushed Animal Justice into third place:

  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.732
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.433
  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.359
  • Knight (SFF) – 0.322
  • Miller (LGC) – 0.297
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.265
  • Quilty (LDP) – 0.248
  • White (FF) – 0.160
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.159

Liberal preferences flowed strongly to One Nation, pushing Tyrrell into third place:

  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.733
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.434
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.363
  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.360
  • Knight (SFF) – 0.324
  • Miller (LGC) – 0.298
  • Quilty (LDP) – 0.284
  • White (FF) – 0.160

Family First preferences pushed One Nation into second place:

  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.734
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.507
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.434
  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.360
  • Knight (SFF) – 0.325
  • Miller (LGC) – 0.298
  • Quilty (LDP) – 0.289

LDP preferences favoured Animal Justice, One Nation and the Shooters to a lesser extent:

  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.735
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.613
  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.476
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.435
  • Knight (SFF) – 0.364
  • Miller (LGC) – 0.301

Legalise Cannabis preferences pushed Animal Justice into the lead, just ahead of Labor, who had been severely deprived of preferences:

  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.743
  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.740
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.615
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.441
  • Knight (SFF) – 0.371

Shooters preferences pushed One Nation into the lead:

  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.930
  • Purcell (AJP) – 0.746
  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.745
  • Sinclair (GRN) – 0.443

Greens preferences elected Georgie Purcell of the AJP to the fourth seat:

  • Purcell (AJP) – 1.105
  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.932
  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.787

The AJP surplus favoured Labor, but it wasn’t enough to stop One Nation:

  • Tyrrell (ON) – 0.960
  • McWhinney (ALP) – 0.862

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Northern Victoria in 2022. The Coalition came first in seven seats, with Labor coming first in the four electorates closest to Melbourne.

The Coalition vote was highest in Murray Plains, Mildura and Shepparton, and lowest in Bendigo West, Bendigo East and Macedon.

The Labor vote was highest in Bendigo East, Bendigo West and and Yan Yean, and lowest in Mildura and Murray Plains.

Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Victoria region

Become a Patron!

3 COMMENTS

  1. will be 1 liberal 1 national 1 labor. 2 remaining seats will be a tossup between SFF, ONP and (insert whatever left of centre party can get the best preference deal here)

  2. Wendy Lovell is retiring, it almost feels like the Liberals are abandoning a sinking ship despite not being office since 2014.