ALP 9.5%
Incumbent MP
Mary-Anne Thomas, since 2014.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Macedon covers regional areas to the northwest of Melbourne, including Gisborne, Macedon, Woodend, Hepburn Springs, Malsbury and Kyneton. The electorate covers the entirety of Macedon Ranges Shire, and parts of Hepburn, Melton, Moorabool and Mount Alexander council areas.
History
Macedon was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seat of Gisborne. Gisborne had been held continuously for the Liberal Party from its creation in 1967 until 1999, when the ALP’s Joanne Duncan gained the seat with a 9.4% swing.
Gisborne was abolished in 2002, and the newly created seat of Macedon had a notional margin of 0.4% for the Liberal Party. Duncan gained yet another 9.6% swing to win Macedon with a substantial margin. She maintained most of that margin in 2006.
In 2010, Duncan was re-elected to a fourth term representing the area, with her margin cut from 8.2% to 1.3%.
Duncan retired in 2014, and Labor’s Mary-Anne Thomas was elected. She was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
Candidates
Labor MP Mary-Anne Thomas is not running for re-election.
- Annette Death (Labor)
- Kate Kendall (Liberal)
- Marley McRae McLeod (Greens)
- Catherine Wilson (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
Labor holds Macedon by a substantial margin but poor Labor polling could open the door for either One Nation or the Liberal Party.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary-Anne Thomas | Labor | 17,234 | 41.4 | -6.6 |
| Dominic Bonanno | Liberal | 12,463 | 30.0 | -1.9 |
| Marley McRae McLeod | Greens | 5,214 | 12.5 | +2.6 |
| Huntly Barton | Independent | 2,250 | 5.4 | +5.4 |
| Amanda Evezard | One Nation | 1,511 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Iris Bergmann | Animal Justice | 1,356 | 3.3 | -0.7 |
| Chris McCormack | Family First | 791 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Kerryn P. Sedgman | Freedom Party | 770 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 1,974 | 4.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mary-Anne Thomas | Labor | 24,762 | 59.5 | -3.8 |
| Dominic Bonanno | Liberal | 16,827 | 40.5 | +3.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: east, north, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 57.8% in the south-east to 66.1% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the east to 19.4% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 12.2 | 57.8 | 5,655 | 13.6 |
| East | 12.1 | 61.3 | 5,340 | 12.8 |
| West | 19.4 | 66.1 | 3,348 | 8.0 |
| North | 16.4 | 65.8 | 3,118 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 10.7 | 57.7 | 17,827 | 42.8 |
| Other votes | 13.2 | 57.9 | 6,412 | 15.4 |
Election results in Macedon at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat has more Labor friendly boundaries than in 2010 when Libs came close as it no longer includes Sunbury but includes ultra Left Daylesford/Hepburn Springs. This area is a bit like Eltham and Monbulk quite affluent but socially progressive.
Labor should hold here bar a landslide defeat, I suspect the whole crime thing here hasn’t had such a significant impact here unlike other seats on this side of town.
This area has some of the lowest crime rates in the state
Doubt it in a landslide this is a pretty green area. Though with the expansion in nearby Hume and Mitchell shire it could be more marginal in probably 10 years
Macedon is the sort of seat a moderate Liberal Party could win. If the government is returned, and Jess Wilson becomes Liberal Party leader then this seat could be worth watching in 2030.
Agree Pencil
to win this seat the Liberals needs to be economically right wing and socially moderate/agnostic.
Does the intention of Mary-Anne Thomas to retire at this election upset the balance here much? In my mind this seat was going to be retained by about half the current margin, now I wonder if it could go a couple of points closer? Doesn’t really seem like a great hunting ground for the Liberals but there could be some spillage from Labor if the Greens and ON are able to siphon off some votes with the departure of a high ranking minister.
This is seat is increasingly Tealish. I was predicting about 4-5% swing to Liberals maybe up to 6% with a no sitting MP.
Is her retirement actually confirmed or just speculation?
Upon re-checking it appears to be the kind of speculation that simply can’t not be true, but indeed it hasn’t been announced officially at this stage
Mary-Anne Thomas (Member for Macedon), Danny Pearson (Member for Essendon), and Gayle Tierney (Member for Western Victoria Region) announced their retirement yesterday and stepped down as ministers. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/three-ministers-exit-jacinta-allan-s-cabinet-months-before-state-election-20260413-p5zng7.html
Upon being in this seat last week its clear that the infrastructure is seriously lacking in the Gisborne and Gisborne South parts which could see One Nation tap into that anger along with Bolinda, Darraweit Guim and Bullengarook booths. The Greens will do well through Woodend, Macedon and Daylesford part of the seat which could help Labor hold on here.
@ SpaceFish
Gisborne is quite high SES and well educated so i think if there is anger it will swing to Libs not ONP
Agree Nimalan, apparently Liberal sources have expressed some confidence in winning this seat and I doubt that ONP would be a major threat here with incomes generally being a bit higher and perhaps a heightened sensitivity on environmental issues and some pockets of socially progressive voters. The loss of personal vote could be quite a problem here in a seat made up of lots of little towns in the same way that overlapping McEwen or Lyons can be hard to prize away from a sitting MP
@ Maxim
You are correct i think this is the most educated and affluent area outside Metro Melbourne in Victoria and has a very high SEIFA score especially closer to Melbourne as people have access to Melbourne job market but have a high quality of life. The Southern Highlands/Wollondilly is probably the closest demographically simmilar area.The current boundaries are more Pro Labor than in 2010. This is due to Daylesford/Hepburn Springs being moved from the old Ballarat East to Macedon.
Going into the 2010 election, Labor had a margin of 8.2% but this came down to 1.3%. The two redistributions since then have added 1.2% to Labor so you could argue that going into 2010 on current boundaries it was actually 9.4% which is very simmilar to current margin. The lack of a sitting member means it could be achieved along with a worse expected statewide TPP for Labor.
Labor could be in strife here, cars forced off the road on the Calder due to potholes and large development plans for Riddles Creek/Clarkefield not going down a treat.
This sort of seat with lots of little towns and such are where incumbency is a huge advantage, Labor’s margin would have been easily defendable had Thomas stayed on. Some polls are now pointing to 2PP swings of up to 10% or even more which would see Macedon fall on a uniform swing. Doubt the Liberals will get a better shot at this for a while if they don’t succeed this time round
If the Libs win a majority in November, I can see them paying lots of attention and money to regional Victoria. This election is starting to look like the inverse of 1999. And Labor with assiduous attention locked in those gains through to 2022.
There have been lots of V Line issues too. Possibly not the fault of VLine but those passengers could get very grumpy.