NAT 9.9%
Incumbent MP
Annabelle Cleeland, since 2022.
Geography
Central Victoria. Euroa covers areas along the Hume Highway from Benalla to Kilmore, and other surrounding areas including the towns of Benalla, Broadford, Euroa, Heathcote, Kilmore and Seymour. Euroa covers the entirety of the Benalla and Strathbogie council areas, most of Mitchell Shire and small parts of Campaspe, Greater Bendigo and Greater Shepparton council areas (but not Bendigo or Shepparton).
History
Euroa was a new seat created at the 2014 election. It primarily took in parts of the former seats of Benalla and Seymour.
Benalla had existed continuously since 1904, and it had been held by the Country Party and National Party almost continuously since 1920. Labor did win the seat at a 1999 election, but lost the seat in 2002.
Seymour was first created as an electoral district in 1992. It was won in 1992 by Marie Tehan. She had served as a Liberal Member of the Legislative Council for Central Highlands province since 1987. She served as a minister in the Kennett government until her retirement in 1999.
In 1999, the ALP’s Ben Hardman won Seymour by a narrow margin. He was re-elected with a 9.5% margin in 2002 and again re-elected in 2006 with a slightly smaller margin.
In 2010, Labor MP Ben Hardman lost to Liberal candidate Cindy McLeish.
Nationals candidate Steph Ryan won Euroa in 2014, and was re-elected in 2018.
Ryan retired in 2022, and Nationals candidate Annabelle Cleeland won the seat.
- Annabelle Cleeland (Nationals)
- Alysia Regan (Greens)
Assessment
One Nation will be hoping to win this seat off the Nationals.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Annabelle Cleeland | Nationals | 13,496 | 31.9 | -27.4 |
| Angela Tough | Labor | 12,840 | 30.4 | +2.3 |
| Brad Hearn | Liberal | 9,227 | 21.8 | +21.8 |
| James Bennett | Greens | 2,245 | 5.3 | +0.1 |
| Raymond Mark Rowbotham | Freedom Party | 1,770 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Paul Bachelor | Family First | 1,494 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Elaine Haddock | Animal Justice | 1,170 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Informal | 2,431 | 5.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Annabelle Cleeland | Nationals | 25,316 | 59.9 | -5.4 |
| Angela Tough | Labor | 16,926 | 40.1 | +5.4 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and south.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 53.9% in the south to 70% in the north.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.6% in the centre to 26.5% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB prim | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 18.3 | 53.9 | 7,515 | 17.7 |
| Central | 16.6 | 64.3 | 3,991 | 9.4 |
| North | 18.0 | 70.0 | 2,867 | 6.8 |
| East | 26.5 | 66.8 | 1,992 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 24.3 | 60.7 | 19,418 | 45.8 |
| Other votes | 22.3 | 55.1 | 6,597 | 15.6 |
Election results in Euroa at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Kilmore and Seymour have seen population growth, which has benefited Labor here.
Im wanting to rename this Seymour after the redistribution. Want to do some boundary chnages shedding Benalla and taking in parts of Shep and the rest off Mitchell
Seems Cleeland has been quite active opposing the volunteer levy and other Labor policies that have received backlash in the bush, I expect quite a substantial sophomore swing, she should easily score a majority on primary vote save for a strong ON showing or something
This seat gets mentioned as a One Nation win. Why? Sophomore MP so Lib running this time. Largish swing to Labor last time but that would have been on the back of retiring MP. ON possible win – Why? Any insights?
@Redistributed, whilst I am not a pollster, my guess is Euroa’s demographics. Incomes are lower, higher education rates lower and people are more likely to work as a tradie or in manual labour. Also, there are lots of small villages and towns rather than large towns like Shepparton or Bendigo. These demographics strongly favour One Nation. It is similar to the western parts of Farrer in NSW.
I think it’s possible the Nationals will run a ‘Vote for the Nationals to defeat Labor’ campaign, as a way to counter the One Nation vote and to win back One Nation-leaning, ex-Coalition voters.
@Votante i think its pretty different to Southwestern New South Wales seeing as southern towns like Kilmore and Broadford are commuting distance to Melbourne’s northern suburbs. It is less isolated from Melbourne than southwestern NSW is from Albury for example. Because of this there are heaps of families moving into the Mitchell shire from the northern suburbs and its population is expected to triple in the next 20 years. I’m not sure if the influx of young families into the electorate will help the Nats or ON I’d be interested to hear.
But yes I agree this is a prime target for ON with a lot of tradies and labourers and people working in defence around Seymour. I think Annabelle Cleeland has built a personal vote especially in the more rural areas after the fires. This combined with any sophomore surge might help to offset the increase in the ON vote in between Seymour and Euroa town. As for Benalla i’m not so sure, I know there are a lot of service workers but I think ON will do very well.
This seat is unpredictable and there is still a relatively large Labor vote which should flow to the Nats. I think in the next redistribution Euroa should be merged with Eildon, and Benalla rural city moved to Ovens Valley with Eltham or Warrandyte absorbing the Nillumbik shire remainder and Evelyn absorbing the Yarra Ranges shire remainder. That way Euroa/Eildon includes Mitchell (except Wallan and Beveridge), Strathbogie, Murrindindi and Mansfield shires . It could be named Goulburn Valley or Goulburn Highlands.
On latest numbers I think this might remain a classic contest between Nat and ALP which the Nats will win by 15-20%
Labor could conceivably come third and pass preferences to the Nats.
On current statewide polling it would be very surprising for Labor NOT to finish third here. Statewide polls conducted after Ben Carroll became Premier recorded Labor primary votes between 23% and 26%. In a conservative rural seat like Euroa that is much more right-leaning than the state as a whole, the Labor primary vote will be well below the statewide average, likely in the high teens. If Labor vote collapse into the teens, and the Greens vote is only between 5 and 6%, then Labor is definitely not going to make the 2CP because the primary votes of both the Nationals and One Nation will be higher than Labor and the Greens combined, which will be at most 25%.
I think Annabelle Cleeland’s personal vote as well as Labor and Greens preferences’ should help the Nationals hold Euroa.