Eildon – Victoria 2026

Liberal hold.

I would not be surprised if Eildon is abolished in 2030. Under quota possibly worse by then. Mansfield and Murrundindi Shires would fit quite nicely into northern Victorian regional seats. Yarra Valley and Nilumbik could go into Eltham, Yan Yean and Evelyn.

Redistributed agreed,
They’ll probably put a new seat down the South East called Clyde and another out West called Rockbank both likely safe Labor seats.

Maybe not Clyde but I reckon Rockbank will be safe Labor.

@Redistributed: Note that Yan Yean is a fast-growing electorate containing greenfield areas such as Wollert, Donnybrook and Mernda. It is likely to be massively over quota by the time of the next redistribution, just as it was at the time of the last redistribution, so it’s hard to justify adding territory to it. Just as in the last redistribution, both Eltham and Eildon absorbed part of Yan Yean’s surplus. Therefore, Eildon will not be abolished in 2030. Rather, it will probably expand to take in more territory from Yan Yean.

i agree with Joseph. Yan Yean will is rapidly growing so will need to shrink again in 2030. Yan Yean has been shrinking at every redistribution so i do think Eltham and Eildon will absord Yan Yean’s surplus. As i mentioned in the Eltham thread i see Yan Yean become safer for Labor after 2030.

@Joseph, I believe that Eildon will be abolished for the simple reason that this entire province is underwater. Even today it has 15,106 electors under average and I believe that come the start of the next redistribution will be around 19,0000 electors under average

I believe that Eildon is the last seat drawn so in effect it gets the left overs.

When the next redistribution starts the state average per seat will be around 54,800 and only Yan Yean, Euro and Bendigo East will have that enrollment (based on current projections

The committee normally starts with Mildura and Benambra, Mildura will be around 4,500 short of average and with its small growth rate will grow and in my view sill take all of Swan Hill Council

This will make Murray Plains projected to be 5,500 short of average needing to find close to 10,000 electors, the flow on will eventually see the only part of Eildon unallocated will be Mithcell shire

North and Central wards of Mitchell Shire or at least their or eastern sides could go into Eildon (which could consist on Mount Bulla, Mansfield Shire, Murrindindi Shire, the current Nillumbik component.

If Eildon is abolished a new seat will need to go into this province, it could be a Melbourne seat although with the changes that will need to be made to Lowan I believe this would be considered as the new seat based around Melton could be allocated to Western Victoria Province

@ Captain Moonlight

What may happen to Yan Yean in that scenario?

Im wanting to move mildura south into Lowan. This will allow the seats in the south west to absorb anti clockwise culminating in polwarth absorbing the surplus from eureka and or south barwon.

@ John
If you get a chance can you look at McEwan thread i posted a while back as i wanted to discuss that seat with you.

Joseph/Nimalan, is it possible for Eildon in the next redistribution to become a more urban focussed district (similar to the federal seat of Hume) whilst retaining its name? Most of the rural parts can be transferred to its neighbours (mostly Euroa and Ovens Valley) whilst it absorbs large parts of the over quota Yan Yean.

@cpatin moonlight what number are you looking at?
accoring to the VEC as of July 2025 Eildons enrollment is 50,983 only -2.30% under quota. perhaps your looking at the property count of 31,729?

so in actual fact its only 1200 voters below average

currently the most under quota seat is Mulgrave with 47,150 electors so its short 5000 electors or -9.64% under quota

John,
Where are getting this data from as I would like to see this myself.

if Mildura moves into Lowan the surpluses in South West Coast and Polwarth negate them. Murray Plains can take in the rest of Loddon shire from Ripon and the Bendigo seats and possibly the rural parts in the north of bendigo east as well

VEC website

https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/enrolment/electoral-roll-statistics

Cheers

@ John, I was looking at July 2025 and have 50,973 which is a growth of 2009 electors since the last redistribution, it is growing at a faster rate than projected 37 a month compared to 27 but it is still down on the state average of 66 per month

My concern with this seat is that the flow on form the seats in the North are going to eat a lot of this electorate up before they get to draw it

In relation to Mildura, I’m extending along the Murray, if you are going more into the Mallee and Wimmera that would change things, but a lot of lowan is empty (ie councils are small population for large land areas.

It would be good to see your thinking, here is mine (subject to changes int he future)

New Mildura
Mildura Current
Buloke Current
Swan Hill Current and rest from Murray Plains

New Lowan
Yarriambiak (some of this in in current Mildura, but all to be relocated to Lowan)
Hindmarsh
West Wimmera
Southern Grampians
Horsham
Northern Grampians
Ararat Rural

Some of the current Lowan would go to the South West Coast including Glenelg and Moyne

Lowan has only grown by 184 electors since the last redistribution and will need a massive top up, my scenario will leave it around 2,000 short of the upper end of the new Quota

@ john, Sorry I forgot to add, the smallest seat in St Albans 47135 is it not?

@captain thats why as ive pointed out that can be avoided Mildura -> Lowan – South West Coast -> Polwarth.
Muray Plains -> Ripon and Bendigo East. Ovens Valley takes in benalla at the expense of Moira shire. under this scenario Eildon isnt touched and can simply take some of Yan Yeans surplus

I have Ovens Valley potentially looking like
Falls Creek
Hotham Heights
Alpine
Wangaratta
Benalla and some of Moria

Where as Murray Plains could look like
Loddon
Campaspe
Gannawarra
and rest of Moria

Leaving Shepparton with
Greater Shepparton
Strathbogie

Benambra as is

Ovens Valley can take in benalla and then drop moira shire to shepparton which can then drop some more of GS to Euroa. Moira shire is more suited to Shepparton due to CoI and transport links. Murray plains needs to cbe more concentrated rather then stretching halfway across the Murray river

Any online redistribution tools for this?

No but I wish the VEC and AEC would develop some tools, it would make it easier and fairer for everyone

I reckon it would help them as well, particularly considering the mistakes of the last AEC redistribution

im sure our good friend angas will help us out

In 2022, the VEC had an excellent tool that was very ease to use and let it be known if you were under or over quota. You could submit their maps right back at them.