Bendigo West – Victoria 2026

Maree Edwards is well into her 60s. What are the chances she gets the tap on the shoulder and Jacinta Allan contests here since there’s the risk she might lose Bendigo East to the Nats.

@Dan M possibly or maybe she decides to retire herself given that her husband passed this year and she’s been caring for him for a long time before his passing. However the speaker’s salary could be quite tempting for her to keep going.

This seat is unwinnable for Coaltion these days as it includes the poorer parts of Bendigo and the tree change areas of Mount Alexander. Of the 1999 regional gains, Bendigo East is the last seat that is held by the same MP in other seats (Geelong, 2 Ballarat seats, Macedon (Gisborne), Labor has been able to pass the baton to a successor. Ripon was Liberal held between 2014-2022 due to rediistribution only. Morwell/Narracan were lost in 2006 and probably will never be won back. It remains untested whether Labor can hold Bendigo East without Jacinta Allan, i think Labor does not want to surrender the seat regardless of Jacinta Allan. They would probably rather loose Government and hold Bendigo East than loose the seat that way they can ask Jacinta Allan only to resign from Parliament after a honeymoon period for Battin has ended and they can plan for a successor.

@Nimalan I’m pretty sure Jacinta Allan lives in Bendigo East as well rather than west (which is funny as her electorate office is actually in Bendigo West as it’s across the rail line that divides the electorate).

One thing that will work in Labor’s favour is that Bendigo East doesn’t contain Rochester like the Federal seat. But she’ll need to sandbag the suburbs and the eastern part hard because the north will vote Nationals like they always do.

Whilst in Bendigo West Maree Edwards only really has to fend off the Greens because they’re getting No.2 rather than Liberal/National.

Tommo, although I can think of plenty of examples of Speakers (both at state and federal levels) who have chosen to retire rather than run for re-election.

At recent elections these include Michelle Roberts (Labor, WA); Jonathan O Dea (Liberal, NSW); Curtis Pitt (Labor, Queensland) and Tony Smith (Liberal, federal).

@ Tommo9
Correct Bendigo East does not have Rochester which is a traditional conservative country town. This benefits Jacinta allan. The Nationals will do well in places like Elmore as they did Federally that town as a strong ONP vote. Jacinta Allan will need to ensure support in the Middle Class Suburban parts of Bendigo remain with her. One disadvanatage is Bendigo East does not have Mount Alexander and Macedon Ranges which helped prevent Nats winning the seat Federally.

@tommo i dont think the people of Bendigo care which side of the line there member lives especially if it’s a labor stronghold there no need to live in the actual seat if your in a city where arbitrary lines mean not much. As long as your not from the other side of the state or the beach front like Andrew Charlton.

I did mention this strategy a while ago as it would be a way for Allen to retain her seat given the real threat. If Allen switches and lathlean runs he will Bendigo east easily

@nimlan labor would trade Jacinta Allen’s seat for power anyway of the week. Labor is about the Labor party and would and has traded away leaders in ecange. For power. They would absolutely rather retain government and lose Bendigo east then retain it and lose. Labor would be a lot better off without Allen, she is the main drag on the labor vote they even contemplated knifing her should the federal election go bad in Victoria to hold onto power

john
What I mean is that Labor probably thinks long term if they are planning for defeat they are probably planning to make sure Libs are a one term government like last time in such as instance it is they need loose as few seats as possible so they can return to power in 2030 if they loose Bendigo east it is possible Coalition can retain it in 2030 but if they loose Yan Yean in 2026 they may regain it 2030

The coalition could probably hold yan yean in 2030 especially if labor are still in government. I’d like to see it lose nilimbuk and parts south of bridge inn road whilst gaining parts of Mitchell from kakallo.

@ John
What I said was a scenario where Coalition wins government in 2026 if they win Yan Yean they may loose it in 2030 but if they win Bendigo East they will likely retain it in 2030 as it is easier seat to entrench themselves in.

Tbh i can’t see the lpcoalition getting the 17 seats they need to forma majority

I think Castlemaine is a significant enough town that it deserves a seat based on it rather than being lumped in Bendigo West.
What could be done ahead of 2030 is a clockwise movement of most Northern Victorian seats.
If splitting Castlemaine from Bendigo West isn’t enough of an excuse, perhaps a proposal to add Swan Hill into Mildura (as I have seen on the Tally Room before) could trigger this.
I also believe Swan Hill works better in a Mildura-based seat than in an Echuca-based one.

This would roughly involve:
– Sunbury gains Riddells Creek and Gisborne SA2s (or another combination of Macedon Ranges SA2s) from Macedon. Sunbury loses whatever it needs to lose in its south
– Macedon gains Mount Alexander LGA (incl Castlemaine) from Bendigo West and is renamed Castlemaine
– Bendigo West gains Loddon and Buloke LGAs from Mildura/Ripon/Bendigo East
– Mildura gains Swan Hill LGA from Murray Plains
– Murray Plains gains Bobram, Nurmurkah and Rushworth SA2s from Shepparton/Ovens Valley/Euroa and is renamed Echuca
– Shepparton gains Moira and Yarrawonga SA2s and the rest of Shepparton LGA
– Ovens Valley gains Mansfield and Benalla LGAs and is renamed Delatite
– Shift Euroa south by whatever is needed, possibly renaming it to Seymour

Bendigo West looks like it will be far more right leaning if this proposal is adopted.

Bendigo is currently split using the railway line. This acts as a pretty useful boundary. Also castlemaine has Co I with bendigo.itsts also in the same seat federally. You can probably add the rest of castlemaine to bendigo west to sure up that seat. Castlemaine is incredibly small and is currently split between bendigo west and macedon.

Macedon ranges makes up the bulk of the seat and is therefore appropriately named. Sunbury is in the city of hume and is better remaining by itself

Castlemaine is no bigger than Kyneton, and it is smaller than any town in Victoria that has a seat ‘based on it’. It fits the Bendigo West community of interest well, where Loddon and Bloke are very rural and don’t really fit well into an urban city like this.

I’ve put the remainder of castlemaine into bendigo west to top up BW.

The Nats are running in Bendigo West too

A recent MRP poll had Bendigo West as a One Nation pick up. I can see ON doing well here and possibly outpolling the Coalition but winning would seem to be a stretch. There just seem to be too many rusted on left wing voters around Castlemaine for the right to break through. However, it should be remembered that the ALP 2pp fell to 52.9% in 2010 after Bob Cameron retired – so a big swing could be possible. I am not sure how the 2010 boundaries match up with present and it has to be said that Castlemaine has become even more ‘Northcote North’ since then.

@ Redistributed
I do agree i feel the Mount Alexander Shire component (Castlemaine) is even more left wing than in 2010 as more tree changers would have moved in those 16 years especially with NBN and more WFH oppetrunities compared to back then. It maybe a legacy of the Bracks Era which focused on improving regional rail as well. I would put out the 2010 result is also skewed by Nats running former Carlton footballer Steven Oliver as the candidate who grew up locally and was well liked the ALP V LIB margin was actually 8.2% it terms of redistrubutions the 2014 one improved the Labor TPP by 0.2% while the 2022 one had no impact. Demographically this is much better for Labor than Bendigo East as it includes the poorer suburbs of Bendigo and the tree change ares in Mount Alexander while Bendigo East includes more affluent/middle class Bendigo suburbs plus conservative rural areas like Elmore. ONP will do well in the poorer suburbs of Bendigo but Mount Alexander shire is hell for them.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2014/bendwest2014

I reckon ONP will come second in various safe Labor seats in regional Vic like Bendigo West. ONP can pick up the disaffected or anti-majors vote. Also, the Libs and Nats will pour resources into more winnable, marginal seats.

David Hutchings has been endorsed as the Nationals candidate for Bendigo West. As @Nimalan has pointed out, Bendigo West will be more difficult for the Nationals to win than Bendigo East. The Nationals will hope that Andrew Lethlean’s popularity in Bendigo would have strengthened the Nationals brand in Bendigo and help them stay in 2CP in both Bendigo East and Bendigo West. https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61593083529132

@Votante: The Coalition is targeting and running strong campaigns in some fairly safe or safe Labor seats in regional Victoria, including Eureka, Macedon and Bendigo East, because they need to win some of these seats to form majority government. The Nationals seem also keen to target Bendigo West. The Coalition will hope that stronger campaigning will help them stay in the 2CP in these seats. The fact that the Nationals got close to winning the previously safe federal seat of Bendigo at the 2025 federal election shows that the Victorian Nationals seem to be pretty good at preselecting high-quality candidates and running competitive campaigns, even in safe Labor seats.

I think Labor will most likely retain Bendigo West, although the result could be close. The Nationals rather than One Nation will finish second.

@Joseph, there’s still no announced Coalition candidate yet in Bendigo West. It probably isn’t a target seat like the seats you mentioned. The creative types and tree change demographics of Mount Alexander Shire and central Bendigo would help Labor hold this. Last election, the Liberals ran but not the Nationals.

A safe seat is one with a margin of >10%. I was thinking Geelong and Lara would likely see ONP come second. Eureka has a lower margin and will flip, but unsure to whom.

The Nats have a candidate here now @Votante

In order to win though they’d need to outperform quite a bit in Bendigo proper and actually win a couple of the booths where Edwards currently has 15-20% margins, then win some of the outlying booths like Marong and overperform in the Guildford and Newstead areas where there is some opposition to above ground transmission towers as well as perhaps some ill-feeling towards the government after the Harcourt bushfire. Castlemaine is just so tough for them though, maybe if they can get it to 65-35? Would be a very good night for the Coalition to take this seat, you’d expect seats in Geelong and Ballarat to flip first unless there is something strong building specifically in Bendigo

There were reports in The Age last week concerning major operational problems at five Victorian hospitals – Albury, Ballarat, Bendigo, Mildura ajd Warrnambool. What in common – all regional. Clinicians quoted that medical staff and patients were forced to put up with conditions that would be unacceptable in Melbourne. Would be interesting to know how much traction they are getting locally. Could be a sleeper issue in Ballarat and Bendigo.