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One nation would make the 2PP if they contested. Could be <10% Nat vs ON margin especially with Peter walsh retiring.
One nation can’t win that labor and the greens will make sure of it.
Though I can’t see how ONP even makes the 2pp Tbh there simply isn’t enough right wing vote other then the nats to take from so they would need to probably halve the nats vote. That or push them out altogether. But hey stranger things have happened. Either way they can’t win this unless they push the nats into 3rd place in the 3cp.