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One nation would make the 2PP if they contested. Could be <10% Nat vs ON margin especially with Peter walsh retiring.
One nation can’t win that labor and the greens will make sure of it.
Though I can’t see how ONP even makes the 2pp Tbh there simply isn’t enough right wing vote other then the nats to take from so they would need to probably halve the nats vote. That or push them out altogether. But hey stranger things have happened. Either way they can’t win this unless they push the nats into 3rd place in the 3cp.
This could be a chance for ON as there will be a vacuum with Peter Walsh retiring. Interesting to see that the Nats are having a contested preselection with one candidate being president of the Victorian Farmers Federation. From what I can see most of the Vic Nats MPs are pretty active in their communities so they probably have built up personal votes that would protect from ON. And if it does get hairy – then ALP and Greens preferences – as they will invariably end up behind ON.
@ Redistributed i think Nats are strong in Victoria so with exception of Morwell i dont see if any Nats seats being under threat from ONP.
The following seats are possible ONP pick ups
1. Benembra
2. Ripon
3. Narracan (Less likely)
4. Hastings (one of the best chances)
5. Sunbury (one of the best chances)
6. Yan Yean
7. Melton
8. Eureka
9. Lara (more challenging)
10. Evelyn (less likely)
12. Bass (although will not do well in Clyde or sea change communities)
13. Pakenham
14. Werribee (quite challenging)
15. Sydenham (very chlalenging)
@Nimalan, I would put Melton also relatively challenging as the seat has number of new housing estates with a significant South Asian Community
@ Marh
Agree and especially the new estates like Thornhill Park are well educated and CALD. It is the semi-rural areas like Exford, Eyesbury and Toolern Vale where ONP will do well along with old Melton.
Vic farmers federation president Brett Hosking has won Nationals preselection in Murray Plains
Is there much chance of the Liberals running and splitting the vote here? Can imagine they might opt not to in light of the ONP threat here
Maybe they’ll run in this deeply rural seat out of spite for the Nationals running in the urban seat of Bendigo East.
My understanding is that the Liberals were prepared before Lethlean’s confirmation that they were happy to vacate the field, it might be in the Coalition’s interest to cut a deal with the Nats to not run in Benambra and have no Liberal running here. With the ON and possibly IND threat in some of these rural seats they really need to close ranks where Labor is not a threat IMO
@Maxim: The Nationals should still win Murray Plains even if the Liberals run. I don’t think there will be significant preference leakage to One Nation from the Liberals. The relationship between the Victorian Liberals and Nationals are pretty solid unlike their federal counterparts. I reckon Liberal preferences will flow around 75%-80% to the Nationals in a Nationals vs One Nation contest. In the 2026 SA election, in the four LIB vs ONP seats, preferences flowed between 62.1% and 68.5% to the Liberal Party. Since the Liberal preference flow to the Nationals in a NAT vs ONP contest will probably be stronger than Labor or Greens preference flows to the Nationals, it’s resonable to suspect that the Nationals will attract around 70% of preferences in a contest against One Nation if the Liberals run. The Liberal primary vote will probably be in the low teens since the Liberals will run dead even if they nominate a candidate. If the Nationals can get around 70% of all preferences and poll above 30% of primary vote, and get the ONP vote below 40%, the Nationals should retain. If the Nationals are nervous enough about Liberal preference leakage allowing One Nation to win Murray Plains, they could cut a deal with the Liberals for them not to run in the seat, however there’s no suggestion so far that this may happen.
It would seem a waste of time, effort and money for the Libs to run in Murray Plains. These resources would be much better spent elsewhere. Does the Liberal high nomination fee apply here? If so, it would be a big disincentive to anyone running when the chances if winning are very low.