Benambra – Victoria 2026

Can’t imagine Hawkins is up for another run, but have heard the Nats are keen to contest here

Maxim Nats wont win this. It will either be a lib retain with a new memeber or Hawkins if she chooses to run.

Three way contest i think nats could do well. Wodonga is the exact demographic theyve been targeting.

I can assure you as someone who lives here they won’t. Without a VIP candidate they usually fail miserably as they did at the last federal poll. It will be either Liberal easily retaining against Labor or a good contest against the INd if she contssts

Same but with billy tilley retiring i think this is their best shot in a very long time.

Well that’s because they couldn’t contest it while he was the sitting member. I can assure you that the only way the nats win is if the libs forget to nominate or if it ends up being a nat vs Lib contest

Must be about for the National Party’s Bill Baxter to have another try at winning Benambra. It could be third time lucky.

I wonder if Labor put effort into here if they could win it as they’ve narrowly missed out on a couple of occasions.

I am not sure why Labour would put effort in an election where they are expected to go backwards and an independent could win this so they can focus their efforts on more classic middle Australia seats such as Croydon and holding Pakenham which is doable if Labor does well in 2026.

Labor will never win here. Labor getting.close is a high watermark. Just like the libs can get close in Greendale but will never win it.

I agree with Darth Vader. There are pockets of Labor strength in Beechworth/Chiltern, Stanley etc old goldfields towns. However, the biggest population centre Wodonga is very weak for Labor. A bit like South West Coast Labor sometimes comes close but falls short. Subject to boundaries Polwarth/Croydon are best to pick up at a future Labor landslide.

SpaceFish

The nearest Labor have come is 46.0% in 2002 and that was well up on any result before or since. I would not be surprised if Labor have no ground game left in North East Victoria – they could only manage 8.34% in Indi back in May and this was a good Labor year.

Obviously you have to consider that a lot of Labor voters would tactically vote for Helen Haines, but eitherway 8% in the federal seat doesn’t feel to convincing to mount a serious challenge.

@ James
I think the point @Redistributed is making and also made previously regarding seats such as Northern Tablelands where Labor was once competative is that long term trend when you have long-term independents is that Labor branch stucture and infrastucture gets hollowed out. That may also also happen in the Teal seats if the Teals hold for sometime because Labor’s infrastcuture will get weaker over time even if on notional TPP terms it may look like they are trending Labor.

@Nimalan – fair point, I do understand now. I do like the analogy with Northern Tablelands which had a 30%+ margin over Labor in 2023 even when Labor won government in NSW, in comparison to when Labor held it for a few terms in the 1980s. It is also interesting as Armidale is trending progressive and where Labor/Greens do well, yet it seems brand infrastructure outside of Armidale is virtually non-existent, and as such the only threats the Nationals face is really a credible independent, similar to Indi which has obviously been successful.

@ James
I think this may happen in Wakehurst as well which is the most midlde class suburban part of the Northern Beaches where if Michael Regan holds for sometime when he does retire Greens may outpoll Labor even in a good election for Labor. Wakehurst was won during the Wran years but even if Chris Minns gets a Minnslide in 2027 he will miss out on Wakehurst etc.

@Nimalan – agree 100%.

Northern Tablelands is an excellent example of the decline in the National Party rather than the Labor Party. More like Lowan than Benambra, with a lack of population growth resulting in the seat expanding to absorb its neighbours.

Armidale was a relatively safe Country Party seat.
In 1968, the Askin Government introduced a rural weighting and subsequently increased it at the next two elections. This resulted in seats such as Armidale losing most of their conservative rural areas.
In the 1973, the long term sitting retired and a new Country Party MP was elected. The new MP had a few personal issues which resulted him not gaining any personal vote. These two issues combined to allow Labor to narrowly win the seat in the 1978 Wranslide election.
In 1981, the rural weighting was removed and seat was renamed Northern Tablelands. The sitting member had built up a personal vote, enabling him to retain the seat in 1981 and 1984. Following his death, the seat returned to its usual voting pattern.

Since 1976, the population of Armidale has only increased slightly while the number seats in NSW has been reduced from 99 to 93. This has resulted in Northern Tablelands expanding greatly. It is now most of the 1976 seats of Armidale, Tenterfield and Barwon. This would never have been won by Labor. There is now only one National Party MP compared to to three in 1976.

Looking at recent federal figures, a seat that used the 1976 Armidale boundaries would still be competitive for Labor.

At the time that Labor gained Armidale, Benambra and Indi weren’t competitive for Labor. The Liberal Party gained Benambra, and Indi, from the National Party due to Labor finishing 3rd and recommending their preferences to the Liberal Party ahead of the Nats.

Pretty much the only way that Labor wins in that part of the world is if their opponents forget to nominate (as happened in Indi in 1928).

That was the nationals anyway that won’t happen because even if they don’t you’ve got libs libertarians family first one nation. The only way labor wins is if there no other contenders like in 1928

In the early days of Federation, Indi was a key seat for example in the First two majority Labor governments at the 1910 and 1914 it was a seat that helped Labor form government when Parker Moloney won the seat. However, those days are long gone. Back then Australia had a higher % of people living in rural areas as Australia has urbanised, Labor has got better in urban areas and no longer needs seats like this. For example Moreton and Lilley used to generally be right leaning now more left-leaning. Perth used to be a key marginal but no relatively safeish Labor seats.

Agree Nimalan with changing demographics meaning that rural areas no longer carry as much weighting when determining elections. As a result, they have transformed from swing/Labor leaning areas to solidly conservative.

@ Yon An
Kos Samaras is writing a book to show Australia has changed demographically. The central premise is that Australia keeps getting more urbanised. At Federation about 55% of Australia lived in Urban areas today thay is around 90% (including regional cities). It was not until the mid 1950s that the majority of Australia’s populationl lived in Capital cities. When parliament was last expanded in 1984 over 70% of the new seats were in capital ciies. if Labor wants to grow their majority in future i think 3 L seats should be targeted (Longman, Lindsay and La Trobe.

il keep you guys posted on what direction the libs are going with the choice of candidate

If they choose james trenery I think jacqui hawkins will win…

She first has to run

I’m hoping for someone else